DOE says world to reach peak oil within 20 years
A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports states that the world will most likely reach its peak oil level within 10 to 20 years. "Peak oil" is the point where oil supplies are at their maximum; any further demand will force higher prices as remaining supplies plummet.
The report provided four alternatives: vehicles with better fuel economy; coal liquefaction; producing fuel from oil shale; and new methods and technology to continue extracting oil from spent fields. The DOE's report, though, shows that such options could not fulfill half the U.S.' fuel demand until 2025 and it would be disastrous if the oil peak is reached prior to that year.
Popular alternative technologies such as ethanol and electric vehicles were considered, then dismissed, since they would have no serious impact on fuel use in the next 20 years.
[Source: The New Mexican]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
charlie 5:01PM (8/26/2006)
So more efficient cars, biofuels, tar sand oil, oil shale oil, more diesel, electric cars which are more energy efficient, coal gasification/liquification, deep sea rigs and other new oil and natural gas drilling technologies, arent going to significantly effect equilibrium energy prices over the next 20 years? I call bullshit.
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Tony Belding 5:31PM (8/27/2006)
How do they get away with "dismissing" electric cars and biofuels for the next 20 years? Where's the analysis leading to that odd-seeming conclusion?
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Howard Lee Harkness 6:11PM (8/26/2006)
"...the world will most likely reach its peak oil level within 10 to 20 years."
I doubt that. At the rate Chinese demand is growing, I would estimate that to be off by at least 10 years -- in the wrong direction. I predict the start of a spiraling positive-feedback loop increase in fuel prices in two years at the latest. There may some blips caused by new extraction technologies, but we need to start thinking in terms of no more dinosaur juice right now. Just in case we want to leave a habitable planet to our grandchildren.
"Popular alternative technologies such as ethanol and electric vehicles were considered, then dismissed, since they would have no serious impact on fuel use in the next 20 years."
I doubt that, too. Ethanol will certainly have much less impact than the Politically Correct crowd seems to think, but electric and biodiesel/electric will have a significant impact on fuel use, and probably within 5 years. Especially if battery, supercap, and photovoltaic technologies continue to improve at current rates.
Hydrogen, of course, will never go anywhere, since 1) it's too expensive, 2) it's too hard to use, 3) it has too little energy density, 4) it's too hard to transport, 5) it's too dangerous, and 6) it doesn't come anywhere close to being 'green' in any meaningful sense.
"A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports [sic] states..."
Oh, a government bureaucrat said that. That explains why this article is so lame. Government bureaucrats are part of the problem. For example, laws that forbid the transport of intact tractor-trailer rigs by rail.
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Jim 12:32PM (8/28/2006)
Is anyone else bothered at least a little bit by the obvious use of copywrited pictures Googled off the web to illustrate stories here? The nice refinery picture above was found in about 20 seconds, and comes from http://www.atwitsend.org/rjnews.html, which states it is copywrited, and asks users to contacct the owner.
It's one thing to use a pic handed out by a car reviewer or manufacturer, but this appears to be blatant copywrite infringement. Or perhaps I'm jumping the gun, and Autoblog did contact the owner...
If being 'green' is about being responsible, so is following the law here.
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Jim 12:38PM (8/28/2006)
Oh, and just so I'm not accused of being off topic, I have to agree that "Popular alternative technologies ...were considered, then dismissed, since they would have no serious impact has to be wrong. It just HAS to be! Right? Please?
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MikeW 5:49PM (8/28/2006)
I was hoping the peak oil was going to be 50+ years, so that the US would have time to pay down the national debt. 10 trillion over 50 years, it could happen.
It would be really nice to not have any debt when the sh*t hits the fan. 10 billion people and no petroleum, fun.
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amca 12:04AM (8/30/2006)
And last time they predicted peak oil, when was that to be? And the time before that?
Remember the 70's? Yeah, peak oil in the 90's. Now it's the '00's, and peak oil's is in the '20s.
Guess what: every time they do it, it's further off into the future.
Stop wringing your hands, boys.
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