Influential auto analyst dramatically reduces hybrid sales forecast
What if I told you that the director of one of the most influential think tanks in the country once predicted that hybrids would account for as much as 90 percent of the U.S. automotive market by 2025? Seems overly optimistic, doesn't it. Almost silly. Well, it's true and it was Philip Gott of Global Insight. According to the LA Times, he has since retracted that forecast and reduced it to 12 to 15 percent by that time. His new numbers lie much closer to J.D. Power and Associates' prediction which were released back in August with the Automotive Environmental Index (AEI).
Gott made his comments back in 2001, and believed that hybrids "were going to be the panacea." Because reports began to show that hybrids got, on average, 20 to 30 percent lower mileage than EPA estimates, U.S. consumers realized that their gas savings would not be as high as they once expected, even though they were still 25 to 30 percent more efficient than their gasoline counterparts.
Gott now believes that diesels will be the fuel efficient choice of most automakers in the next decade. He predicts that sales of diesel-powered vehicles will reach 12 percent of the U.S. market by 2026.
[Source: LA Times]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
loikll 3:33PM (10/09/2006)
Question is why was he foolish enough to predict 90% penetration in a couple decades anyway? These things could be spitting gold nuggets out the exhaust, they're not going to reach 90% anywhere near that soon.
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Ron Fischer 3:37PM (10/09/2006)
Mr. Gott appears to have accepted the longstanding claims of US Automakers: diesel is the next, incremental improvement in fuel economy, and trumps hybrids on cost. It is certainly easier for automakers. Its cheaper to federalize a european diesel than develop a hybrid, and there is currently cachet in biodiesel. The US Gov also keeps giving diesel 'alternative fuel' subsidies for some odd reason. But beware: diesel is still less convenient than gasoline, and if food price increases are linked to ethanol and biodiesel production the public outcry may drop on it like a hammer.
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Jason Noh 9:23PM (10/09/2006)
I wonder if his 2001 forecast is related to recent surge of oil price? Wonder yet, this correction is timed?
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