Is $84,000 for a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle reasonable?
We mentioned this on AutoblogGreen over the holidays, but I came across another aspect of the claim by Honda President Takeo Fukui's statement that he expects hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to be widely available in 2018 that bears thinking about. As Sam mentioned in his original post, Fukui believes that within a decade after the FCX is released, fuel cell cars will be available if the cost of these cars comes down to about a tenth of what they are now. The problem is that all of these hydrogen fuel cell prototypes cost about a million bucks. One-tenth of that is $100,000. Sure, there is a market for one-hundred-grand green vehicles (see example A, the Tesla Roadster), but how many FCXs (or whatever the initial production model will be called) does Honda expect to sell at that price? Fukui told the Kyodo news agency that he's confident customers will buy these cars if they cost no more than 10 million yen ($84,000). Really? I can see a hydrogen car in the mid-fifties doing all right, but if Honda thinks they can do well with an $84,000 hydrogen car in 2018, well after when Tesla says they'll have their $30,000 EV sedan on the road, I think Fukui is in for a big let down.
Readers, your thoughts?
[Source: AP in the Suburban Chicago News]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Turbofrog 9:43PM (1/03/2007)
With few tangible functional benefits, few tangible environmental benefits, and a price tag 3-4 times higher than an equivalent gasoline (or electric?) vehicle, I really can't see any reason to own a fuel cell car. At all.
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John 7:43PM (1/03/2007)
Are we talking about $84k in today's dollars that will be adjusted for inflation by the time 2018 rolls around? With the rate of change the world is thundering along at, it is difficult to predict where the FCX will fit in the scheme of things price wise. In today's market and pricing, it would have little hope of success other than as a novelty unless it was a hot rod like the Tesla roadster.
There are variables though. What will the price of oil be in 2018? How much will biofuels make an impact on the market? And where is the electric car going to be? Will Tesla or somebody else pull off a $30k electric family car? What will the hydrogen supply be like? What will be the cost of fuelling up with hydrogen...or electricity for that matter?
If we don't come up with a solution that is as cost effective as oil or close to it, and the price of oil skyrockets, then driving a car may only be something for the wealthy. The world could be a very different place in 11 years...or not. At the beginning of 1996 nobody knew about global warming, the internet was still primarily a computer geek thing that the world was just starting to take notice of en masse, and gas could be had for much less.
That said, if an $84k car in 2018 (plus adjustment for inflation) is the new $50k in today's dollars, then the auto industry as a whole will have a very tough time. If that price represents the middle market instead of the premium market, then getting around will be a very expensive proposition period with the requisite devastation to the economy. If that is the best price we can hope for in the hydrogen economy, we better start planting our eggs in other cheaper baskets in the hope that the lifestyles we now hold so near and dear will not become distant memories.
To me this just points out how untenable the hydrogen economy really is. You can't get around the fact that hydrogen is not a source of energy, just a poor medium for it. I believe a combination of electric vehicles and biodiesel PHEVs are the best bet to go forward in the automotive industry. Other industries such as shipping and air travel will also have to develop unique ways....not so sure there is a prospect bio fuel based jet fuel out there, but I'd love to read about it if there is. I'm betting the world will change in ways most of us can barely imagine by the time 2018 rolls around.
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Gary 7:56PM (1/03/2007)
People buy $84,000 Porsches every day. How many of those spend time on the track? How often do Porsche owners even come close to reaching the limits of their cars capabilities?
Most cars are sold for one simple reason: Image
People don't buy $84,000 cars to get from point A to point B. They buy $84,000 cars so their freinds and neighbors know they can afford an $84,000 car and to show everyone they appreciate fine things.
As long as Honda styles the car so people can tell at a glance that it's an expensive, ecologically friendly, high tech car, people will buy it.
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ali 8:51PM (1/03/2007)
i think engadget needs to make posting blogs a hell of alot easier nobody is posting here and to have to go comfirm it on ur email is extra work.. thats so 90's why dont u engadget people just make a sign in and we can post on any of ur blogs effortlessly? u guys always write about web 2.0 why dont u do some of it urself? its annoying
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Sebastian 9:51PM (1/03/2007)
John,
if you type "jet" into the search bar at the top of this page, you'll find some jet fuel stories we've had on ABG (including one today). Here's a few URLs:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/01/03/using-micro-algae-for-jet-fuel/
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/12/24/big-dollars-for-renewable-military-jet-fuel-research/
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/10/04/update-from-usda-researcher-on-current-state-of-airplane-biodies/
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/10/03/biodiesel-jet-fuels-coming-our-way-since-at-least-2001/
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CM 1:40AM (1/04/2007)
I rather doubt Honda can bring it in that low, unless it is subsidized. But for sake of argument, assume that they do. The new car choices in 2018 will be between:
(1) a $84K car running on a more expensive fuel, or
(2) regular cars, $16K and up, running on expensive and scarce fossil fuels mixed with some biofuels, or
(3) electrics and pluggable hybrids, $24K and up, powered mainly or exclusively on a far less expensive fuel, electricity.
I suspect most with choose option #3.
(yes, I know inflation could raise prices more than that, but we have no way of telling what future inflation might be)
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Hondafan 7:49AM (1/04/2007)
Honda's president, if I am correct, used YEN figures and not US$. His comments could be misconstrued to mean he was talking about the US market when he could have just been talking about the Japanese market. Anyways, his vision is so far off that it's sort of silly to start speculating what the car will cost when it doesn't exist in any meaningful capacity yet.
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Sebastian 8:31AM (1/04/2007)
Hondafan,
If you go read the original article my post links to, you'll see that Fukui indeed does use Yen. He could be talking only about the Japanese market, but the article doesn't specify. And I doubt they'd be able to sell the car for much less in the US than in Japan.
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kballs 1:14PM (1/04/2007)
Many people already complain about how they can't make up the extra cost of a hybrid with fuel savings, so they are obviously primarily economically motivated people... then they dream about hydrogen cars so they won't have to pay for expensive gasoline. LOL, they don't even realize the cost of hydrogen per mile is a lot higher than gasoline (and always will be because all energy prices go up with oil).
Some EV/PHEV/PSHEV marketing machine needs to market the fact that even as energy prices go up, electric drive will always cost a lot less per mile than gasoline or hydrogen (Tesla is trying but we'll see how their ads work out when they start mass production). EV/PHEV/PSHEV cars will cost more up front than an ICE car (but less than a hydrogen car), but because of the drastically lower driving costs they can be a similar cost or even less in the long run while having less overall environmental impact.
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Peter 1:27PM (1/04/2007)
People who have $84,000 to spend on a car that is stylish, ecologically friendly, and fast will be on their second Tesla by 2018.
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chesters liver 2:56PM (1/04/2007)
What is the lifespan of this vehicle? GM admitted their hydrogen equinox-sp? has a life of 50,000 mi. People will not accept anything, but what they have now. No one cares about the environment, especially if it affects the ol'pocketbook. Period. That's the truth. Look at all the useless driving around people do now, no one cars how much fuel they use. Give us the same mileage, the same range, the same reliability, the same ease of ownership, the same price, etc. and more than just the "eco-elite" would be interested. Until then - gas, gas, and more gas baby!
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KLEI 10:57PM (1/18/2007)
50,000 miles only ?!?!?!?!?!?!?
tisk tisk gm!
horay for tesla motors. lol.
Omg i cant get over this LMAO. The Roadster is way less expensive, produces less greenhouse gasses, looks better (in my opinion), is faster and LASTS LONGER than the fuel cell equinox. gm when will you learn that the BEV is the way to go!!!?
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