CarbonFree report points to hydrogen impact
Click on the image for a gallery of high-res images of the hydrogen-powered Honda FCX Concept.
U.K. based analysts CarbonFree has published a report on the impact that hydrogen is already having on the automotive market. Considered to still be two decades away from commercial deployment, hydrogen as a fuel source (energy carrier) for passenger vehicles is already being experimented with by most of the automotive manufacturers in R&D, and often also as a public relations exercise. The report, entitled "Driving in Neutral", suggests that the real push to commercialise hydrogen powered vehicles will occur when conventional oil field production begins to fall and oil companies have to look to alternatives.
Analysis: Large-scale biofuel production will stave off petroleum shortfalls in the medium term, but hydrogen is still seen by many as the fuel of tomorrow. Interestingly, the report goes on to suggest that biofuel production could become a front for concerns about energy security in the future.
Gallery: Honda FCX Concept
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[Source: Biofuel Review]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Howard Lee Harkness 3:13PM (3/26/2007)
"The report, entitled 'Driving in Neutral'..."
...has a number of invalid assumptions. The first one I ran into was that the "hydrogen economy" was 20 years off. It's a LOT farther off than that, because hydrogen will always be the fuel for people with more money than sense, or who can freely spend other people's money.
The second erroneous assumption was that bio-fuels would have only a tiny impact on extending the supply of dino-fuels. There are at least two other factors at work here, neither of which are correctly addressed:
1) While bio-fuels might only have a limited effect, EVs will probably have a much larger one. BTW, I strongly disagree with the 'limited' assessment for bio-fuels.
2) There have already been developments that have reduced cost of domestic extraction of dino-fuel from tar sands to less than what it now costs to import it, so dino-fuel is probably going to be relatively cheap for at least another 40 years. Unless some artificial scarcity is imposed by government edict (or industrial collusion). Yes, dino-fuels will eventually run out, regardless of the degree of conservation, but not in the next 4 decades.
The biggest problem faced by the proponents of hydrogen is how to keep folks from figuring out that there are already several alternatives that are cheaper, safer, and GREENER -- and don't require the invention of entirely new technologies, build-out of whole new infrastructures, or even the repeal of those pesky laws of chemistry and physics. If we are lucky, they will fail completely.
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Xoham 6:12PM (3/26/2007)
I'm happy to see Howard keeping us all informed about HFC being a poor choice.
Here's some supporting material:
http://www.efcf.com/e/reports/E17.pdf
I'm starting to worry that oil will be around for us to use for 40 more years though. The Peak Oil guys seem to think we've already hit the peak in 2005. Watch prices this summer. If the supply really is dwindling, prices should set records.
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Howard Lee Harkness 11:36AM (3/27/2007)
Here's a recipe for energy price volatility:
Country US Imports (Millions of Barrels)
Canada 1,851
Saudi Arabia 1,563
Mexico 1,435
Nigeria 1,106
Venezuela 955
Angola 553
Algeria 548
Iraq 514
Our 3rd largest supplier's output is down more than 50% over the last two years. The 4th largest is on the brink of civil war (the Chinese are working behind the scenes for exclusive contracts, and paying protection money to the rebels). The 5th largest is run by a Leftist nutcase who has publicly declared his hatred for the US.
The only stable trading partner on that list is Canada. This would indicate to me that the Canadian and US tar sands are going to be of high strategic importance in the very near future -- unless we can do the biofuel thing a bit faster.
To me, the importance of biofuels is mainly in decreasing our dependence on unreliable sources. Clean air, CO2, and economics are also important, but not as urgent.
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