Edmunds editor Karl Brauer offers a brief opinion on batteries for electric cars
Karl Brauer, Editor in Chief at Edmund's has his own blog on the site, and in the latest installment, he highlights an electric motorcycle that I have heard about before, the Killacycle. What I did not know is that the cycle is capable of making a run to sixty from a standing stop in 1.4 seconds. The lithium ion batteries for the cycle come from A123 Systems and cost $12,000 in this one-time application. Karl thinks that if these batteries are available right now for an electric motorcycle, and have been super reliable, then we cannot possibly be that far off from a reasonably priced plug-in hybrid. I think his argument makes perfect sense. Everybody who reads this site is probably familiar with the idea of economy-of-scale. Basically, the more of a product you make, the less each individual product will cost. Makes sense, right? If batteries like these were made in the amounts necessary for a midsize car which sold, say, 50,000 units per year, that $12,000 battery pack should go down in price. That is the idea, at least. Care to comment?
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[Source: Edmunds]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Ben W 10:43PM (3/30/2007)
I understand that battery prices have dropped constantly and reliably over the years. However have any professional estimates been made concerning the scalability of lithium battery technology and how prices would be effected? Sure prices would drop if the majority of the cost is in fabrication, but what about materials prices or other factors? I've read that lithium isn't exactly the cheapest or most abundant element...
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Felkster 7:56PM (3/30/2007)
Lithium & other rechargeable batteries have been made "at scale" for quite some time. I'm not sure why they're still so expensive. I believe the specific reason why hybrids and electric cars use the size AA, C's, and D's because of the greater competitiveness in those sizes...but even those are still expensive. I guess alkalines are more competitive and made at greater quantities, but I have to think that lithiums are still expensive for another reason than scale. Why do *generic* lithium cell phone batteries, which are made in the billions a year industry-wide, still cost $40 each?
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Joseph 2:43PM (3/31/2007)
Of course lithium-ion batteries have been made to scale!!! The Tesla Roadster is made from labtop batteries (so I'm assuming they're mass produced)and must be relatively cheap considering the cost of the car isn't outrageous for a sports car. I've heard estimates from people who have made a lithium powered sports car who estimated the Tesla's battery pack to be around $17,500. A123 batteries are so expensive because, as far as I know, they have not been mass produced yet unlike their lithium-ion cousins. Once the batteires are mass produced, the price should fall.
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Bruce W 9:56PM (3/30/2007)
If you take the amount of power output. Compare the same amount of output power from an Alkaline or Lead Acid battery I think you will find they are the same price. The Killacycle uses a 175 lb 7KWh @ 374 volts. 880 cells 3.4 volts putting out 2.3 ah.
A aa battery from radio shack 1.5 volts 2.8mAh.
You would need over 1900 aa's to match 1 cell. OR 1697520 aa's to match what is loaded in the Killacycles battery pack. And with Radio Shack's $19.99 for a 40 pack that roughly $848335.00 worth of aa's riden down the track with a $12000 price tag.
These are rough figures pulled off the web and from Killacycles website. I have no financial interest in any of the above product nor am I endorsing anything. I am only attempting to make Apples to apples comparison for those who what to get it cheaper.
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Chris M 10:56PM (3/30/2007)
Increased supply tends to drive prices down, and increased demand tends to drive prices up.
Production of LiIon batteries is increasing, which improves supply, but the demand is increasing as well. Result - price hasn't changed much.
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jcwinnie 9:48AM (3/31/2007)
So, speaking of economies of scale is the number of signatures interested in the Chevy Volt at 0.5 million yet?
You know, the concept car that GM recently was explaining to the Detroit Free Press might never be built.
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bob 10:23AM (3/31/2007)
Bruce,
your math is way off. A 2.8mah battery would be useless. Typical AA battery is 2800maH, similar to the lithium cell. Since the lithium cell is 3.4 volts compared to 1.5, so you still need more aa batteries.
3.4 volts versus 1.5 volts = 2.27 times as many. So 2.27 x 880 = about 2000 batteries. That would be 50 of the 40-packs, or about $1000.
The big difference is the alkalines are not rechargeable.
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Scatter 11:00AM (3/31/2007)
Why is no one offering to sell an electric car and lease the battery? The fuel cost savings which you could make would easily pay the lease costs and the lower purchase price would kickstart demand very nicely.
At least the first round of batteries could be leased and then hopefully as the price drops in the coming years, when they need to be replaced the owners could opt for purchasing or leasing again.
When Tesla offer their WhiteStar I hope they at least offer this as an option.
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Beek 1:26PM (3/31/2007)
Camera Li-ion batteries made in China are down to 10 or 15 dollars. Check Froogle.
There appears to be no reason why A123 prices will not drop when supply is ramped up.
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Tormod Henne 6:40PM (3/31/2007)
Scatter,
That's exactly what they are doing with the new Th!nk model coming out later this year. Unfortunately, the lease rate is pretty stiff at about $200 a month. Check think.no
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GhostDoggy 8:40AM (4/01/2007)
Economies of scale is handicapped by marketing realities that disserve consumers. For instance, Lithium may be competitive on one battery-size market, but the notion of economies of scale within the same product market is a myth.
For instance, I can pay the exact same price (call it X) for 36 AA batteries, but I can only get 24 AAA batteries of the same type battery material by the same manufacturer.
The reality is that the amount of battery material in a AAA is less than AA, and I am getting only 2/3 the number of batteries for the same exact battery material.
So, where does the scales of economy hold here? Sounds like my local water supply. Charge me, the resident, a premium per gallon, prohibit me from watering more than 25% of the time during a given week, and allow builders and other commercial outfits waste water in larger amounts while discounting them on the per gallon rate.
Economies of scale may have had their ideal application in the industrialize era, but we've moved away from that age in human history.
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middleoroad 10:04AM (4/01/2007)
KIllacycle is certainly an appropriate name for such a fast motorcycle.But humor aside,doesn't the manufacture,transport and recycling of batteries pose a large environmental threat?Not to mention vehicle safety. Electric vehicles also will strain power grids and give consumers a false sense of "greenness".
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Scatter 9:48AM (4/02/2007)
Thanks Tormod. I hadn’t noticed Th!nk were going to do that (my Norwegian is a bit rusty ;). $200 is quite steep though. I’m sure it’s a good revenue stream for the manufacturer but I think that lease rate could put people off.
Middleoroad: EVs and the like shouldn’t strain the grid because most of the charging will be done at night when demand is low. In fact EVs are quite possibly going to be the saviour of the electricity companies and especially renewable energy as they will be able to store green electricity generated at night and use it during the day. I recommend you read up on V2G:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/v2g/index.html
And there’s nothing false green about EVs. Even charged from the grid they beat combustion engine vehicles when it comes to CO2 and anyway, you could (and should) charge them from renewables making them more or less emissions free!
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