It could take two decades to convert half the US vehicle fleet to alternatives
MIT professors Jeroen Struben and John Sterman have developed a computer model to tell us what a a few minutes of observation in area outside of the likes of Newport Beach could tell you: it will take 15-20 years for half the US vehicle fleet to switch over to new vehicles like hybrids.
The reason for this is simple economics. There are a lot of people who buy new cars every couple of years, but those cars that are replaced don't just disappear. Older cars are handed down the economic ladder and modern cars often last 15-20 years. There are tens of millions of people in this country who can't afford even $25,000-30,000 for a new car and rely on being able to buy older cars for a few hundred dollars.
In order to make a dent in fuel consumption, more needs to be done to enhance public transit and promote the use of it. We also need to get people to change their habits when they do drive by consolidating trips and carpooling. As fuel prices go up, lower income drivers will migrate to more efficient vehicles as well just because of the operating cost savings.
[Source: New Scientist Tech]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Tony Belding 9:54AM (6/08/2007)
I'm not shocked. We didn't get into this mess overnight, and 15-20 years getting out of it doesn't seem unreasonable. If you look at the Computer Revolution, it took about that long to run its course from the early, hobby-oriented computers to the true mass market. This kind of big upheaval always takes a while.
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susan.kraemer 12:51PM (6/08/2007)
I would suggest start community college classes for automechanics to learn EV conversions. A lot of older, lighter vehicles make great donor vehicles, and its only $6000 for the materials.
Imagine if every automechanic knew the EV conversion business, and if there was a subsidy for a $6000 way to drive gas free. Even the poor could do it.
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amg 12:52PM (6/08/2007)
So many of the gargantuan family cars of the 70s and 80s were still on the road at the turn of the century. I think we'll see a lot of rusty, patched up Escalades and Expeditions on the roads in years to come. The irony is that the prices of used SUVs will fall as demand falls and supply increases, so lower income people will buy them and then get bled dry at the pump.
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Dave S 3:49PM (6/08/2007)
There are tens of millions of people in this country who can't afford even $25,000-30,000 for a new car and rely on being able to buy older cars for a few hundred dollars.
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Even 25k - 30k? Like that's supposed to be cheap? Is this a small lapse in writing style or a lapse in perspective? Because it is one or the other.
I agree with the above poster about EV conversions - plenty of metal out there that would satisfy the vast majority of vehicle trips with a 30 or 40 mile range.
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Sam Abuelsamid 4:32PM (6/08/2007)
Dave, I didn't really mean to imply that $25,000 was cheap. But that is really the low end for any full hybrid system and realistically you aren't going to see anything like a Volt or other full hybrids selling for less than that price for the next 8-10 years.
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Greg G 5:16PM (6/08/2007)
At some point it will become cost effective to convert existing vehicles. Sooner with subsidies and/or research grants, later without. Then and only then will the fleet migrate to green.
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mh 11:24PM (6/08/2007)
We better get started.
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mark 6:35AM (6/11/2007)
You can buy a used hybrid for far less than tan USD$25K. We bought a three year old prius for AUD $25k. There was even a Honda Insight with 35,000 kms that went for $AUD 9000 because the owner was having trouble selling it. In a few years, there will be plenty of used hybrids that are old enough to become cheap cars, and not long after that there will be some thrashed out ones qualifying for junker status.
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bill 11:00AM (6/11/2007)
Who are these clowns that think those people who cannot afford a shiny new $25,000-$30,000 hybrid should be riding buses? It would make more sense to give people new hybrids than continuing to blow tax dollars on public transportation systems that most people do not want or use.
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Greg G 1:15PM (6/11/2007)
Bill, you must be American.
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bill 1:31PM (6/11/2007)
Greg, thanks for the compliment. I am also pragmatic when it comes to solving problems. I am not seeing much in the way of pragmatism when it comes to solving environmental issues, real and imagined. I couldn't help but laugh at an article in our local newspaper honoring a woman who was one of the primary reasons the use of DDT was banned worldwide back in the 1960's. Thanks to the ban a very large number of people have gotten to die from malaria, which had pretty much been wiped out by the use of DDT. On the other hand the malaria deaths could be cheered by the Al Gore "humans are causing global warming" nuts as a victory against global warming. Go figure...........
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Mike 2:38PM (6/11/2007)
7. We better get started.
+1 Git er' done!
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