J.D. Power: Hybrids losing popularity to diesels
It looks like consumers are starting to come to the realization that although hybrid vehicles have the potential to provide big increases in fuel efficiency, that improvement is not universal especially if you're not prepared to modify your driving habits. By their nature parallel hybrids are most useful in applications that involve a lot of starting and stopping. This allows the system to recapture kinetic energy during braking and store it in the battery. Applications that get predominantly constant speed driving get little benefit. While many drivers benefit from hybrids, some, like John True, do not.
J.D. Power has released the results of their second annual Alternative Powertrain Study and the number of people considering a hybrid has dipped from fifty-seven percent last year to only fifty percent. They found that hybrid intenders are willing to pay up to $2,396 extra and expect an extra 18.5mpg with a hybrid. While the price differential is possible with tax credits, that mileage improvement is totally unrealistic. During the same time period the number of drivers willing to consider a diesel jumped from twelve to twenty-three percent. Unfortunately those people are likely to be somewhat disappointed as well with expectations of a price premium of $1,491 and 15mpg improvement. Diesel premiums are likely to be $2,000 or more although the 15mpg may be achievable on some vehicles. Now that ultra-low sulfur diesel is becoming available and clean diesels are coming, people are taking a new look at diesel.
[Source: J.D. Power]
J.D. Power and Associates Reports: Consumer Consideration of Hybrid Vehicles Drops as Fuel Efficiency Expectations Among Shoppers Become More Realistic
Toyota, Honda, Ford and Nissan Have the Most Models in the Top 30 of the Automotive Environmental Index
WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., July 16 /PRNewswire/ -- As consumers become more realistic about the fuel efficiency capabilities of hybrid vehicles, the percentage of new-vehicle shoppers who are considering a hybrid has declined, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2007 Alternative Powertrain Study(SM) released today.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20050527/LAF028LOGO-a)
Now in its second year, the Alternative Powertrain Study examines the reasons why consumers consider or avoid alternative powertrain vehicles. The study includes the Automotive Environmental Index, which combines U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) publicly available information data related to fuel economy, air pollution and greenhouse gases for 2007 model-year vehicles and J.D. Power and Associates' voice of the customer data related to stated fuel economy. Voice of the customer data is also used to help determine the relative importance of these environmental factors.
The study finds that 50 percent of new-vehicle shoppers are considering a hybrid -- down from 57 percent in the 2006 study. While a general decline can be observed across all age groups, in particular younger vehicle shoppers, those 16 to 25 years old, appear less interested in the powertrain technology, with 60 percent considering a hybrid in 2007, down from 73 percent in 2006. The average additional price hybrid considerers are willing to pay for this powertrain is $2,396, with the expectation of receiving an improvement of 18.5 miles per gallon (MPG) over a traditional vehicle of similar size.
"In the 2006 study, we found consumers often overestimated the fuel efficiency of hybrid-electric vehicles, and the decrease in consideration of hybrids in 2007 may be a result of their more realistic understanding of the actual fuel economy capabilities," said Mike Marshall, director of automotive emerging technologies at J.D. Power and Associates. "While hybrid sales are steadily increasing, they continue to face competition for market share against an increasing offering of other alternative powertrains and fuels options."
The study also finds that consumer consideration for purchasing clean diesel vehicles, which were newly introduced to the market in 2007, is at 23 percent. In 2006, only 12 percent of shoppers considered purchasing diesel vehicles. On average, considerers of this powertrain are willing to pay an additional $1,491 for the clean diesel option and expect an average additional fuel economy of 15 mpg.
"As the automotive industry steadily offers more alternative powertrain/fuel options to consumers, buyer preferences will continue to shift the market in the coming years," said Marshall. "With high fuel prices, perceived dependency on foreign oil and an increased focus on environmental issues all being top of mind among consumers, manufacturers will not only have to continuously make efforts to produce more fuel efficient vehicles, but also to diversify the range of options."
Toyota is the highest-ranking nameplate in the Automotive Environmental Index, followed by Volkswagen and Honda, respectively. Toyota has improved by six rank positions since the 2006 study and has a strong showing with both hybrid and gasoline-powered models. Honda also performs well, with four models in the top 30. Ford and Nissan follow, each with three models. Similar to 2006 results, there are only two luxury models in the top 30; the Lexus GS 450h and RX 400h.
In 2007, the top 30 Automotive Environmental Index includes 10 hybrid models -- up from eight models in 2006:
Ford Escape Hybrid Mercury Mariner Hybrid
Honda Accord Hybrid Saturn VUE Green Line
Honda Civic Hybrid Toyota Camry Hybrid
Lexus GS 450h Toyota Highlander Hybrid
Lexus RX 400h Toyota Prius
The remaining models in the Top 30 Automotive Environmental Index are gasoline-powered:
Chevrolet Aveo Honda Fit Mazda3 Pontiac Vibe
Chevrolet Aveo5 Hyundai Accent MINI Cooper Toyota Corolla
Convertible
Ford Focus Hyundai Elantra Nissan Altima Toyota Matrix
Ford Focus
Station Wagon Kia Rio Nissan Sentra Toyota Yaris
Honda Civic Kia Spectra Nissan Versa Volkswagen New
Beetle
The 2007 Alternative Powertrain Study includes responses from more than 4,000 consumers in May and June 2007 who plan to purchase a new vehicle within the next two years. The voice of the customer components of the Automotive Environmental Index are derived from the 2007 Alternative Powertrain Study and the J.D. Power and Associates 2007 Initial Quality Study(SM). Find more detailed findings on new-vehicle fuel efficiency as well as model photos and specs by reading an article or reviewing the green efficiency ratings at JDPower.com.
Automotive Environmental Index: Top 30 Models
Chevrolet Mercury
* Aveo * Mariner Hybrid
* Aveo5
MINI
Ford * Cooper Convertible
* Escape Hybrid
* Focus Nissan
* Focus Station Wagon * Altima
* Sentra
Honda * Versa
* Accord Hybrid
* Civic Pontiac
* Civic Hybrid * Vibe
* Fit
Saturn
Hyundai * VUE Green Line
* Accent
* Elantra Toyota
* Camry Hybrid
Kia * Corolla
* Rio * Highlander Hybrid
* Spectra * Matrix
* Prius
Lexus * Yaris
* GS 450h
* RX 400h Volkswagen
* New Beetle
Mazda
* Mazda3
Automotive Environmental Index Nameplate Ranking
(Based on a 1,000-point scale)
Toyota 678
Volkswagen 664
Honda 644
Kia 642
Mazda 636
Hyundai 622
Pontiac 605
Saturn 601
Suzuki 599
Subaru 582
Nissan 572
Mitsubishi 567
Audi 552
Industry Average 549
Lexus 542
Buick 528
BMW 524
Saab 521
Mercury 505
Acura 501
Volvo 497
Isuzu 495
Porsche 487
Ford 485
Chrysler 484
Jaguar 482
Infiniti 460
Mercedes-Benz 456
Dodge 453
Chevrolet 431
Lincoln 428
Jeep 415
Cadillac 370
Land Rover 323
GMC 309
NOTE: HUMMER, MINI and Scion are included in the study but not ranked as their complete model lineup is underrepresented.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
SenatorPerry 5:38AM (7/18/2007)
I ordered a Prius on Friday to replace my Chevrolet TrailBlazer. It came out to ~$24,000, but the biggest problem was that six dealers told me it would be three months before one would be available for purchase. It was only the seventh dealer that was able to source one in a week.
There are other cars from previous years that make a good comparison on MPG, but you also compromise safety in those vehicles. We looked at diesel, but decided that we do mainly city driving where the hybrid easily defeats a diesel.
My guess is that hybrids are suffering with a lack of supply in the desired models and the hybrid Civic's reputation as making less MPG than a Prius with less cabin space and a matching price. At least you can buy them without a wait though.
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CB 8:28AM (7/18/2007)
I don't think it's a supply problem. The Toyota dealer near my home has 19 new Priuses in stock. And it's the only Toyota dealer within 50+ miles. I have seen several used ones there too.
Most likely, the issue is that Prius were highly desired by a certain portion of the market, people who are highly eco-conscious. Many of them already own a Prius. They didn't buy for economic reasons. They bought for the eco-image. With high gas prices, more and more buyers are looking for economical sensible solutions. When you do the math, typically a Corolla (or other small car, i.e. Honda Fit) makes more financial sense than a Prius. But as the financial gap shrinks, you'll get more and more people willing to go with the hybrid.
Toyota's economies of scale should have increased by now with cost going down. I wouldn't be surprised to seem them lower the price on the Prius when the new model comes out in the next year or so in order to entice some of the people sitting on the fence.
Diesels are good because they tack on less to cost and are more consistent with the MPG increases.
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Mike Miller 8:36AM (7/18/2007)
why not make a diesel hybrid? Maximize the fuel economy. I rode on a bus that had this. The engine was only a 3.0L vs. a 6.0L of a normal bus.
I am sure someone would argue it is too expensive.
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Michael 9:14AM (7/18/2007)
Only 50%?
It looks like the biggest downward trend was for the youngest age group. That makes me wonder if the initial cost factor is influencing their choices?
Also, if 50% of new car buyers consider hybrids, why do only 2.5% buy? Are they not aware you can save money in the long run? Are they not aware of how many models come with a hybrid option now? Are different types needed to lure more buyers, such as minivans?
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DG 10:13AM (7/18/2007)
Rudolph Diesel's original idea was to feed his engine with bio-fuel. This would have meant less greenhouse emissions throughout the industrial age; less urban sprawl as farmland would continue to be valued to supply fuel for the industrial and economic engines of progress...
It was a good idea back in the 1890s and, as he is quoted to have said, "The use of vegetable oils for engine fuels may seem insignificant today. But such oils may become in course of time as important as petroleum and the coal tar products of the present time."
Too bad the WWI machine was looming about the time he died, for indeed "After his death, the Diesel engine that was marketed only ran on petroleum based products, and his great ideas of a clean burning engine died with him."
Anyway, back to this article. I became a diesel driver back in 2003 for a number of reasons. As was the case back in 1914, PETROdiesel is pushed by Big Oil and people are not educated to realize that diesel engines can run on BIO-diesel - diesel fuel that is not fossil based, but based on vegetable oils like corn. Shucks, you can run a diesel engine today on used fast food french fry oil.
Even if the price at the pumps were identical, the simple fact that an engine is available TODAY, that has been proven by over 100 years of heavy duty use (diesel is the viable platform for airplanes, ships, trucks etc because they are stronger and more efficient), and can run on clean fuel should alone be enough to demand more availability in the marketplace. Diesel fuel releases more energy per unit than gasoline, which means you get mileage out of a tank; diesel engines require less "tune ups" (no spark plugs, no distributor cap...) and live a whole lot longer, meaning cost of ownership over time is much lower...add in geopolitics, economics, the entire discussion of "dependence on foreign oil" and the power it creates, and then that thing about the environment, and we are left to scratch our heads and ask a simple question - why aren't ALL cars built with diesel engines, even as an option?
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Tim 10:33AM (7/18/2007)
I think many hybrid buyers are waiting on the plug-in. I will hold onto my 1998 car for another 3 years until e-Flex is available.
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Linda 10:51AM (7/18/2007)
While hybrids looked good on first blush, longer term comarisons with clean diesel certainly do not favor the hybrid. People are just beginning to figure out that the hybrid reality doesn't begin to measure up to the expectations that have been created by all of the media and the pop culture hype.
First, of course, there are the exagerated fuel economy ratings. More important, however, is that hybrids are tremendously complex machines. From an engineering standpoint, complexity translates into higher initial expense, more and more difficult long-term repairs, unknown maintenance costs (like battery replacement), and shorter service life.
Clean diesels, on the other hand, are relatively simple machines. They are an elegant solution, from an engineering standpoint. Heck, they don't even have spark plugs. The new common-rail diesels are quiet, clean and powerful. They deliver roughly the same kind of fuel economy improvement and carbon reduction as do hybrids. And lots of diesels have survived in service for a million miles or more. No conventional-engined Toyota has ever approached that kind of service life. Certainly, the complex Prius will survive for only a fraction of that time - particularly when you factor in multi-thousand dollar battery replacements every 100,000 miles or less.
Europeans, who are far more aware fuel costs, carbon issues and longivity concerns, overwehlmingly choose clean diesel over hybrid. Americans are smart enough to figure it out, too. The JD Power findings are not surprising.
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SenatorPerry 12:11PM (7/18/2007)
Tim,
I think you hit it right about the plug-in hybrids. Unfortunately, we need people to buy hybrids to fund research for batteries and other supporting technologies. It is unfortunate that people are measuring hybrids against diesels instead of diesels against plug-in hybrids and EVs.
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Tim Russell 1:50PM (7/18/2007)
"It is unfortunate that people are measuring hybrids against diesels instead of diesels against plug-in hybrids and EVs."
A different Tim here. While you may find it unfortunate the fact is you can buy diesel cars now and you can by hybrids now. No major automaker is makeing a EV or a plug-in.
As far as drivetrain choice the way I see it all of the above should have peoples interest. What people should look at is how am I going to use my car most of the time:
Short trip's in town, never making a long trip (or could rent for that 2-3 times a year), BEV works great here.
Commuting over a bit longer distance with stop and go thrown in, plug-in hybrid works here. Day to day you may uses very little fuel Also a good choice for someone who makes a long trip once or twice a month as your not electric range limited.
Lots of highway driving with less stop and go, a diesel car with a conventional mechanical drive would be best. No electic conversion losses.
My Choice:
I commute aound 50 mile a day so plug-in is probably in my future. I could save a lot of fuel but not limited in range. To me a BEV is too limited in range, winter cold and running a heater for 3 hours while crawling home during a snow storm would tax the batteries and leave me stranded. A drivetrain like E-flex gives me the next best thing and makes sure I'm getting home. That is unless I fill up so infrequently my stupid self forgot to fill the tank, I wonder if that would happen to people, not filling up for 4-5 weeks would make one tend to forget. :-)
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TG 3:00PM (7/18/2007)
J.D. Power: Hybrids losing popularity to diesels
And correctly so!
The American auto buyer is smarter than we think.
Hybrids can not be driven without gas/diesel in the tank. [ Damage].
Just as dead in the driveway as any plain petrol vehicle.
The ICE engine is a liability!
Reliability and freedom comes with the EV, the PEV and Compressed Air vehicles only. = TG
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TG 3:03PM (7/18/2007)
Sorry,
Just as dead in the driveway as any petrol vehicle During a Gas shortage = TG
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CFields 3:13PM (7/18/2007)
The current hybrids are a scam. If they truly wanted to make a hybrid that gets close to 100 MPG all they would have to do is use the same technology that’s been deployed in diesel locomotives for the past 30 years.
Use a diesel engine as an electric generator to power an electric motor or motors. You can have a small engine produce enough power to turn a 250 horse power equivalent electric motor. You could remove the transmission to lighten the vehicle which will increase gas mileage. If you add biodiesel to the mix you could have a closer to green car.
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Joseph 3:38PM (7/18/2007)
"Use a diesel engine as an electric generator to power an electric motor or motors. You can have a small engine produce enough power to turn a 250 horse power equivalent electric motor."
That only works in trains where the speeds do not vary too much.
In a car, you're going 20 mph one seconds, 5 mph the next, and before you know it you're already on the highway. Because the speed is always changing, then the Engine would need to lower its power output so that the electric motor would lower its power output and thereby slow the car. This however, makes that car more or less as efficient as a regular diesel since the engine is always fluctuating its speed (and a constant fluctuation of an engine is inefficient, that's why on the highway you get better fuel economy, at least for a regular car)
To get the great fuel economy you speak of there's need to be a battery in between the engine and electric motor. When the car slows down or speeds up the engine speed will still stay the same, the battery output will just be different. The reason this leads to better fuel economy in a car is because the main power source, the engine, is always running at the most efficient speed and the battery's efficiency doesn't change much with fluctuating power outputs. The problem with this is that you need a large battery for this, and so it's very expensive.
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M1EK 5:49PM (7/18/2007)
Ah, the diesel FUDders are out again. The reason diesels own Europe is due to favorable tax treatment - and comparatively loose emissions laws.
Go ahead, tell us again how diesels get better mileage. Find me a midsize diesel that can beat the Prius. We're waiting. (No, the Jetta doesn't count; it's not midsize, and it doesn't beat the Prius' mileage anyways).
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Dub 8:55PM (7/18/2007)
"The reason diesels own Europe is due to favorable tax treatment"
Diesel tax incentives? You must be kidding. The US gevernment has offered up to $3400 in tax credit support for your Rube Goldberg device hybrid vehicles. A number of states offer thousands in additional tax credits.
Regarding fuel economy, find me the Prius that gets what a Prius is supposed to get...
If you're really concerned about environmental impact, what's the impact of all those broken and worn out hybrids (plus batteries) going to the scrap pile, while clean diesels will be still rolling after hundreds of thousands of miles?
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Bill 9:35PM (7/18/2007)
Parallel hybrids are going to be significantly less attractive once clean diesels start arriving next year.
The extra weight of the additional drivetrain and battery pack are a disadvantage versus non-hybrid diesels.
Series hybrids would be more competitive with diesels, assuming anybody can get them into production before diesels ramp up.
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Chris M 11:16PM (7/18/2007)
" find me the Prius that gets what a Prius is supposed to get..."
I could say the same for Diesels, or almost any car. The fault is with the EPA tests, not the cars. But hybrid or diesel, with proper maintenance and reasonably good driving, it is possible to match the EPA milage. My Prius does.
" what's the impact of all those broken and worn out hybrids (plus batteries) going to the scrap pile, while clean diesels will be still rolling after hundreds of thousands of miles? "
There are Prius that have gone over 200,000 miles, and even one that has gone over 300,000 miles. With less engine "runtime", less engine wear and tear, the hybrids will, on average, outlast diesels.
Reliability surveys back that up - the 2006 CU survey of 6 million auto owners indicates that all hybrids have better than average reliability, and two hybrids (Prius, Civic) are in the top 10 for reliability.
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M1EK 3:03PM (7/19/2007)
"Diesel tax incentives? You must be kidding."
Not kidding. Diesel fuel in Europe is artificially cheap (compared to gasoline, I mean) because of their taxation scheme. Also, because they didn't care much about emissions for a long time, of course.
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Bill 7:27AM (7/20/2007)
Diesel fuel is currently cheaper than petrol here in the U.S.
And while Europe has essentially no emissions controls on its diesel vehicles, that will NOT be the case with the 50-state approved clean diesels that will start arriving in the U.S. next spring.
We are very much looking forward to low-emission, high fuel economy clean diesels here in the U.S.
And as for gas shortages, keep in mind here in the U.S. we can legally store hundreds of gallons of on-road diesel at our homes in a "heating oil" tank - can't do that with petrol.
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stevejust 5:55AM (7/21/2007)
With all the time spent here that I would assume anyone taking the trouble to post must have under their belts... I'd think I'd be reading some more educated comments.
1) Mike Miller is correct. Why do hybrids and diesels have to be mutually exclusive? Imagine a plug-in, hybrid, diesel vehicle and stop bickering.
2) Why diesel hybrids? Because electricity is always going to be far more efficient than BURNING something, even if it's running on biodiesel. This is just a fact. If you're a diesel fan, what about regenerative braking on hybrids? ICEs need to go. But until battery technology increases range and decreases in weight and expense, biodiesel compatible hybrid diesels would be pretty cool. (Not to mention our needing time to create a diffuse network of solar panel charing stations on people's houses to help charge the coming PHEVs to alleviate pressure on the grid and cut coal out of the picture.)
3) Dub- questions of hybrids not attaining their mileage can be verified/refuted/confirmed at www.greenhybrid.com You all should look to see what people actually get in real-world driving conditions. Now compare that to real-world driving conditions of your favorite TDIs. Sorry my friend, but diesels don't beat hybrids... at least none of the diesels available in the US. The Citreon C3 might, but it's also smaller than just about every hybrid except maybe the Insight.
4) I live in CA, where we have stronger emissions standards than Europe, and don't allow current diesel passenger cars. That should tell you all something right there. I know, I know, we're talking about "clean" diesel technology. Keep reading, though.
5) DG- All cars can't be diesel because of the way petroleum refining works. Diesel and conventional gas come out of the same crude, and you can't make all one or all the other.
6) Linda- I personally would trust a Toyota Prius to last longer than a VW TDI any day. VWs aren't the greatest cars in terms of reliability-- diesel or no. Ditto on say any big american truck with a diesel engine. While the engine might last, the transmission and other things... well, I would just stick with the Toyota in that bet.
7) Even the diesel BluTec E320, with it's super clean technology puts out 8 tons of GHG a year, compared to the Prius's 4 tons a year. C'mon people. Facts: www.fueleconomy.gov and www.greenhybrid.com and are some resources for finding them.
8) My honda civic hybrid batteries will be recycled at the end of their life... the battery packs are too valuable for them not to be reclaimed. But realistically, am I going to have the civic for 10 years? No way, I've had it for three, and I'll wager that I'll have a Tesla Roadster or something else equally revolutionary in my garage before the batteries on the civic are in danger of wearing out.
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