Is the U.S. occupation of Iraq really keeping gas from shooting to $9 a gallon?
Following a trip to Iraq, Nevada Republican Representative Jon Porter said this week that if American occupation forces were to be withdrawn from that country, U.S. gas prices could jump up to $9 a gallon for gasoline.
I'm not sure how Porter can make such a statement - and he did hedge his bets by telling Las Vegas Review-Journal writer Tony Batt that "can't speculate directly" on the issue - but he claims that U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Iraqi Deputy President Tariq al-Hashimi and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh all said the same thing regarding prices.
As Batt writes, Porter said, "To a person, they said there would be genocide, gas prices in the U.S. would rise to eight or nine dollars a gallon, al-Qaida would continue its expansion, and Iran would take over that portion of the world if we leave." A spokesman later clarified that the price trebling "makes sense if Iran moves into Iraq."
Wow.
I'm not sure where to start with this. Is it fear-mongering? Is it a reasonable prediction? Are low gas prices a good reason to occupy a country? So many questions. For now, I'll just make the comment - before opening up the floor to you - that there must certainly be a contingent of people who would like U.S. troops out even quicker now that we have this new information. You mean we can bring the troops home and seriously encourage higher-mileage cars and gas conservation? That's a win-win for a lot of people.
[Source: Las Vegas Review-Journal / Tony Batt]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Domenick 8:03PM (8/31/2007)
$9 dollars a gallon? Sounds good to me.
If we could only figure out how to make coal too expensive to burn maybe we could move out of the dark ages.
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Derek 7:57PM (8/31/2007)
I wouldn't consider risking an all-out Iraqi civil war a "win-win" situation. I just can't believe so many people are willing to let Iraq go to crap just because it's convenient for us.
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Domenick 8:03PM (8/31/2007)
Newsflash. With hundreds of thousands of Iraqi's killed, millions fleeing their homes and country, Iraq has already "gone to crap". I think they might be getting a little tired of our "help".
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bioburner 8:04PM (8/31/2007)
$9 per gallon for gasoline-hard to beleive. How many years did the world boycott Iraqi oil and oil prices did what since we sent our troops in there effectively lifting the boycott? What happened to the demand for oil products when the US sent in it's military with fuel hungry tanks, air craft and Hummers. The US military is as much to blame,in my opinion, for the rise in oil prices as any other reason you could think of.
What Jon Porter is doing is nothing more than terror tactics no doubt to justify keeping The US military in the war. The other cronies referenced are also joined with Jon Ported in an obvious attempt to keep US troops in their country so our troops can die instead of theirs.
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SenatorPerry 8:19PM (8/31/2007)
I wouldn't dare to assume I know more about this than someone directly related to it.... And it isn't as if my opinion matters....
$9 a gallon would be great. My Prius averages 65 MPG to work so it would be $124 a month. That could easily be absorbed.
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Peter 8:23PM (8/31/2007)
Good thing waging war is cheap.
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dp 9:00PM (8/31/2007)
Even if gas were to rise to $9 a gallon I still don't believe Americans would change their wasteful ways. They would bitch, but not be willing to do what was necessary to change. Nobody would ride a bike, or carpool, or buy an economy car. America needs to quit buying foreign oil period. There is no reason we shouldn't be able to become efficient enough in our ways to sustain our own needs. We are heading down the path of unattainability. We'll wind up fighting each other over the last drop available. Our habits are madness.
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Andrew 10:02PM (8/31/2007)
Sounds good to me - get the troops home!
Besides at $9/gallon, that's STILL cheaper than in Germany, where it's over $6/L, or $23/gallon.
Bring on the price increase. Me and my biodiesel TDI are ready.
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Derek 11:36PM (8/31/2007)
Newsflash. With hundreds of thousands of Iraqi's killed, millions fleeing their homes and country, Iraq has already "gone to crap". I think they might be getting a little tired of our "help".
Actually, many of the 5-6 million Kurds, as well as many people in the rest of the country have been grateful for our help (see stories about Anbar and areas of Baghdad, as well as southern Iraq). I'd hate to imagine the body count if there was an unrestricted war between Sunnis and Shias and Kurds backed by Iran, Al Qaeda, and Saudi Arabia. Also frightening would be if the Kurds in Turkey and Iran broke away to join the Kurds in Iraq.
Even if you disagree with the war, we ought to take responsibility for the "mistake" we made. We can't just leave and let them kill each other. There's no way you could have a clear conscience knowing you could have stopped a civil war.
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Domenick 12:29AM (9/01/2007)
Thank you Derek.
It's already a civil war. It has been for a long time now. Our presence doesn't seem to be stopping anyone from killing anyone. This whole mess was based on lies and you want us to keep believing more lies from these very same liars?
As it stands the Whitehouse has zero credibility. Same as the Pentagon. Same as the Republican leadership. Same as the Democratic leadership. We are naught but pawns in their power games.
It really doesn't matter what you or I think or say anyway. Iraq is screwed and we are screwed.
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Erik 4:36AM (9/01/2007)
Jon Porter needs some lessons in economics. The facts are: 1) total oil production = 80 billion barrels per day ; 2) iraqi oil production = 2 billion barrels per day.
(source www.nationmaster.com, or CIA factbook 2007)
So Iraq accounts for about 2% of the world production. I cannot imagine how blocking 2% of the world oil supplies would cause a trippling of gasoline prices.
Furthermore, oil prices are rising due to a increased global demand for oil ( countries like China and India are using more oil). This steady increase will continue for many years. This will have a much bigger impact on prices than the situation in Iraq.
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Derek 10:03AM (9/01/2007)
Erik,
Oil prices are also determined based on the "expected value" of oil. If no one's sure that there will be a steady oil supply in the next couple of years, then, in theory, the value increases because suppliers want to cover the possible higher costs in the future and consumers are "stocking up" now (like our country refilling our strategic oil reserves).
Domenick,
I agree that there is some civil war in Iraq, but it is quite limited compared to what could be happening if no one was raiding weapons caches, detaining insurgents, and patrolling neighborhoods.
If I'm a pawn of the republicans' power games, what does that say about the antiwar movement? Could you really just be a pawn of a competing group? You're going to have to take sides based on your own ideals and offer the same respect to those who do the same but have different ideals.
If you assume, a priori, that Iraq is screwed, then they are. You've already given up.
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rgseidl 10:19AM (9/01/2007)
@ Erik -
oil consumption is currently running closer to 86 mbpd. Btw, it's not the amount of oil Iraq still manages to produce - it's that a full-blown civil war in that country could easily engulf its neighbors, multiplying the supply risk. At that point, oil prices would immediately shoot through the $100 per barrel ceiling. It would go even higher if additional oil production infrastructure in the region were to be attacked, let alone destroyed. The result would be a global recession.
With demand for oil currently strong in all OECD countries plus China, India and many others, there is in fact very little spare production capacity. Saudi Arabia, which had long maintained excess capacity and was therefore able to keep prices in a target band, no longer can.
Some numbers for reference:
Spot prices for Brent and WTI (both light, sweet crudes) are around $73 per barrel right now (Bloomberg). Sour crudes are cheaper because a sizeable fraction has to be expended to remove the sulfur. Therefore figure an average price of ~$60 per barrel for all of the oil arriving at US refineries.
US crude oil consumption is roughly 20.7 mbpd (CIA World Factbook 2007). Ballpark cost estimate: ~$1.25 billion per day.
The purely monetary cost of prosecuting the war is currently estimated at roughly $2 billion a week - all financed by public debt. That's incredibly expensive but as you can see, the sum total is actually still less than triple-digit oil prices. Besides, US taxpayers aren't paying for the war. Its full cost is being borne by US soldiers and mercenaries, the Iraqi people, and future generations of US taxpayers. Plus ca change...
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Henry 11:15AM (9/01/2007)
We got more oil on earth then we can ever consume. We find new oil in Russia and Canada everyday. It wont take long for companies to grab this oil and profit from it. The problem is there are companies controlling the oil therefore if they flood the markets they will reduce their profit.
In US when they have too much wheat and milk they don't sell it cheaper. They throw it away.
Iraq war only profits companies rebuilding it. Whether we leave or stay their oil production will be under a worldwide watch.
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mike 11:58AM (9/01/2007)
So let me get this straight, the Republicans are WARNING about 9$ oil,
and at the same time doing NOTHING to increase CAFE standards, or get us OFF foreign oil?
At the same time they start the DRUM BEAT for war in IRAN? What will oil be then? $90?
These are guy's that can't see 1 move ahead, and they're still running things? into the ground?
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mike 12:01PM (9/01/2007)
Why isn't Jon Porter calling for a National Emergency to build fuel efficient cars and trucks to avoid the Collapse of the U.S. economy?
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MikeW 2:36PM (9/01/2007)
BS.
If the Neo-con psychopath/sociopath useful idiots of the nwo attack Iran, then the sh*t might hit the fan. Iran will only take so much (if they are going to go down, they will go down swinging) the will shut down (at least try) the Straight of Hormuz.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/06/14/the-daily-show-arming-the-sunnis-or-the-enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend/
It stinks that the military is only going after the category three AFQT entrants, or foreigners. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFQT
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MikeW 2:42PM (9/01/2007)
or could it be the intentionally debasement of the USD?
and/or blood for oil for dollar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
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Marco 4:19PM (9/02/2007)
@8:
Gasoline in Germany is 1,37€/Litre, which means 1,9$/L. 1 gal = 3,78L, so 1 gallon of gas in Germany costs 7.2$/gal.
( http://www.aaroadwatch.ie/eupetrolprices/ )
It's still not so far from 9$.
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Hans 7:59AM (9/03/2007)
Porter has his economics upside down. Oil production in Iraq is LESS THAN before the war. Keeping Iraqi oil off the world market can oil increase the price of oil. But I'm glad he recognized that US Middle East policy is all about oil. When the sociopath neocons are gone the US can work on a rational energy policy based on conservation and efficiency.
John
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