Blencoe-Romm hydrogen debate gets a bet: how many hydrogen cars in 2015?
In an update to Greg Blencoe's hydrogen debate challenge from the other day, Greg has emailed the following to AutoblogGreen. I assume (but am not certain) that this is part of an email discussion between the two contenders. The text below is as emailed to us, the names I added for (what I hope is) clarity:
Romm: "BTW, what year will fuel cell cars be 1% of the new car market? That looks ripe for a bet."
Blencoe: "You got it. I'll say 2015. I know your answer is going to be something like 2050, so don't even bother giving me your prediction. How about this? I win if fuel cell cars hit 1% of the new car market during 2015 or before. You win if it is 2016 or after. What are the stakes?"
OK, any readers want to pick their sides here? Seems like a fun guessing game. There are something like 7.5-to-8 million vehicles sold in the U.S. a year, and one percent of that would make 75,000 to 80,000 hydrogen cars. In eight years? No way. Last year, the DOE (in a Honolulu conference I was able to attend) gave the three possible scenarios for hydrogen cars in America:
[Source: Greg Blencoe, DOE]
Romm: "BTW, what year will fuel cell cars be 1% of the new car market? That looks ripe for a bet."
Blencoe: "You got it. I'll say 2015. I know your answer is going to be something like 2050, so don't even bother giving me your prediction. How about this? I win if fuel cell cars hit 1% of the new car market during 2015 or before. You win if it is 2016 or after. What are the stakes?"
OK, any readers want to pick their sides here? Seems like a fun guessing game. There are something like 7.5-to-8 million vehicles sold in the U.S. a year, and one percent of that would make 75,000 to 80,000 hydrogen cars. In eight years? No way. Last year, the DOE (in a Honolulu conference I was able to attend) gave the three possible scenarios for hydrogen cars in America:
- Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced widely in 2015, with government support for hundreds or thousands of vehicles a year by 2012 and tens of thousands by 2018. This will result in 2 million HFCVs by 2025.
- The government supports thousands of HFCVs by 2012, tens of thousands by 2015 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This gives 5 million HFCVs by 2025.
- Lastly, the government supports thousands a year by 2012 and millions a year by 2021, giving 10 million by 2025. The HFCVs come from multiple companies and in lots of model choices.
[Source: Greg Blencoe, DOE]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
BlackbirdHighway 9:48AM (10/18/2007)
By 2015 hydrogen will be dead. There will be zero fuel cell cars sold, unless mandated by the government. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will never reach 1% unless mandated by the government.
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mark 2:23PM (10/18/2007)
Probably the big decider will be the emerging economies. If they should introduce legislation or incentives for alternative fuel vehicles then I'm sure we will quickly see a big increase in world wide percentage.
These places already lead the world in adoption of new fuels. Witness Bangkok where all taxis (zillions of them) use LPG.
http://www.talkclimatechange.com
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Tony Belding 10:20AM (10/18/2007)
The DoE scenarios were referring to hydrogen cars in the USA. The bet, if I understood correctly, was referring to hydrogen cars worldwide. Also, I think hydrogen fuel-cell PHEVs would count for the purpose of this bet, even if they ran on grid power most of the time.
If there's any chance of Glencoe winning this bet, it'll happen in China. China is industrializing and the Chinese car market is exploding. The Chinese have huge investments in hydro and nuclear power, which could be used to produce hydrogen. They also don't have the huge pre-existing gasoline infrastructure that the USA is saddled with. Finally. . . The Chinese leaders could simply issue an edict mandating hydrogen cars. They have that kind of power.
However, I believe the Chinese still have a mind-set largely focused on copying whatever the USA is doing. If BEVs or flex-fuel PHEVs catch on big in the USA, then the Chinese might turn away from hydrogen.
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Kardax 11:22AM (10/18/2007)
Tony Belding: China is all about doing things cheaply and easily. There's nothing cheap or easy about hydrogen.
I don't think hydrogen will ever make up 1% of the vehicles anywhere in the world (unless mandated by government).
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Mikael Johansson 4:21PM (10/18/2007)
If fuel cell vehicles reaches the 1 percent target, then the world is out of mind.
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Chris M 7:30PM (10/18/2007)
I'd bet H2 vehicles, both fuel cell and H2-ICE together, would not reach 1% during my lifetime, but it would be really hard to collect on that!
I'd be truly astonished if any H2FC vehicles are produced for sale to the general public (not lease only or limited to government/commercial fleets) before 2025. To get 1% by 2015, when plug-ins will be so much cheaper and far more available, beggars belief.
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abigaildog 9:01AM (10/20/2007)
Glen might lose, but society will win either way. By then FC advances will have continued, 350+ mile range, significant cost reductions and much closer to viable mass sales since production line built fuel cell cars will be common, and occur by Honda first in 2008 then GM. Available to public begins in 2008 too. Lease is not a barrier, since such a large % of ALL cars today are leased. It is the preferred method of vehicle procurement by millions. This myth of lease as a barrier was perpetuated by Battery EV folks when in fact lease protected them from brutal actual costs of battery replacements and real vehicle costs. I was glad to NOT bear actual EV costs. Romm has to deflect criticism today with a new bet since so many of his "top 10" reasons FCV's wont succeed have already been proven wrong. Betting? You are already gambling with every gallon of gasoline you buy today, so betting FOR hydrogen instead of against it seems like the smart bet.
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wettlaufer 2:20PM (11/15/2007)
There are something like 7.5-to-8 million vehicles sold in the U.S. a year
Industry new vehicle sales are running at about 16 million annually with the long-term trend (units / households) indicating potential around 17.8 million.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ALTSALES
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