Survey says: We want 35 mpg by 2020! Will we buy them? Who knows!
It appears that Americans do indeed want to have their cake and eat it too. The latest survey from the folks at Pew Research talked to the usual 1,000 Americans and the results where unsurprising. Of people who responded, 69 percent favored new fuel economy standards that would require a fleet average of 35 mpg by 2020 while only 19 percent favored the 32 mpg by 2022 standard proposed in the Hill-Terry bill. The question that remains unanswered and apparently unasked is whether people would be willing to give up all their SUVs and CUVs in order to meet that threshold? While there are cars on the market today that already meet the 35 mpg requirement, their sales remain comparatively small compared to those of much thirstier vehicles. Undoubtedly fuel prices will climb between now and the end of the next decade, but will they go high enough to encourage people to drastically change their car buying habits?[Source: Detroit Free Press]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Joseph 3:53PM (11/12/2007)
Of course people will buy them.
Just because a cars will be a little smaller, with a little less power, doesn't mean people won't buy them.
By that logic, people would've bought less cars in the 70s than they did in the 50's (because of the new CAFE standards that made cars more fuel-efficient.) Did people by less cars in the 70's than 50's? I don't know for certain, but I think it's pretty safe to say that people bought more cars in the 70s than in the 50's.
The demand for new vehicles will exist as long as there are vehicles that age.
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Wildgoosechase 7:15PM (11/11/2007)
People are always in favor of better fuel economy, as long as someone else buys the Prius. Higher CAFE requirements will improve fuel economy in larger vehicles making them more affordable to operate. SUV sales will actually rise.
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BlackbirdHighway 7:31PM (11/11/2007)
The real unasked questions are: "Will you buy a smaller, more fuel efficient car if gasoline goes to $5 a gallon?, $7 a gallon?, $10 a gallon, $15 a gallon?".
Also, "will you drive less at those prices?" "What if your family could have a car that got 100 mpg, but couldn't be used on long trips?" "Would that car work as a second, commuter car?" "Does your household currently have two or more cars?"
I'd would very much like to see the results of a comprehensive survey along those lines.
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Throwback 7:36PM (11/11/2007)
This is another one of these surveys which tells us nothing. Of course people want 35 mpg. Are they willing to give up large vehicles to get it? How much more are you willing to pay for your SUV in order to get 35 mpg?
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Phil L. 10:18PM (11/11/2007)
Sure, I want 35 mpg.
Are there any 35 mpg vehicles that my family can use? We have three kids, all in car seats. How many LATCH positions does your car have?
Yeah, surveys like this don't really reveal much useful info. People's real lives and decision-making processes involve far more than can be summed up with a one-sentence question and a choice of several responses.
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Adam Galas 10:50PM (11/11/2007)
Cafe is meaningless.
35 MPG by 2020? The price of oil by then will have climbed to something like $300 with gas at $10+.
We will surely see $4 summer 08, with prices riseing further in 09 and 2010.
If gas is $6 come summer 2010, 35 mpg will seem like the bare minimum, 10 years ahead of the CAFE numbers.
I was in support of higher CAFE but after seeing 32 by 2022 I give up. Forget CAFE and just let peak oil drive up the price of gas until America is dragged, kicking and screaming away from its SUV habit.
My current car is a 94 Corolla with 172K miles on it. It runs great and I plan of driving it until the wheels fall off, then buying a REEV or BEV, with the specific goal of pruchasing little or no gas ever again.
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TIMMAH! 11:24PM (11/11/2007)
Yeah, I'm all for 500hp, 500ft/lbs and 35mpg.
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Ernie 4:28AM (11/12/2007)
PhilL:
Hmm. That's funny. The Prius seats 5. And has LATCH restraints. (http://www.toyota.com/prius/specs.html)
And so does the Camry hybrid. And the Civic Hybrid.
Coincidentally, I recall that there were tests showing that LATCH restraints were no more effective than regular seat belts, and due to improper usage in the real world, were in fact less effective than the more easy-to-understand seat belt arrangements.
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Dave 4:39AM (11/12/2007)
Ernie, you completely missed Phil's point.
Unless you have 3 rows of seating, your typical sedan (like the Prius, Camry and Civic) will only fit 2 car seats, which means you can't carry 3 children who need car seats or booster seats safely.
To fit 3 car seats, you have to go with 3 rows of seats which means big SUV or minivan. I would love to know what is the most fuel efficient vehicle that can safely fit 2 adults and 3 car seats in it.
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Der_Alte 5:11AM (11/12/2007)
A lot of people drive around in SUVs that don't need to. A lot of people do need to make use of larger vehicles however. If you look at the minivan market right now, there are no fuel efficient choices to be had in North America. In Europe you can get minivans with fuel efficient diesels...or with four cylinder gas engines with technology such as direct injection and superchargers. There are solutions that while imperfect, are more fuel efficient than current North American offerings. Everyone says they are on their way over here, but that promise never seems to make it onto the dealer's lot. Gas is still too cheap and throwing a thirsty V6 under the hood is still the most economical choice for the car makers when it comes to North America. Too many consumers buy vehicles thinking about fuel prices today and not what they may be 5 years down the road when they are only just finishing up their payments. That means North Americans have to suffer pain at the pump until better vehicles make their way onto dealer lots. Too many demand too little for it to be any other way.
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ug 1:16PM (11/12/2007)
Then maybe people should have fewer kids.
Also, I don't see why you can't make a wagon that has a fold-up 3rd row of seats. The SAAB 95 had that back in the 1960s.
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Bill 6:52AM (11/12/2007)
Yes, it's a crying shame all full-sized minivans get about the same mileage (domestic or import - around 17 city EPA estimates)
We'll need a lot more turbodiesel engines to get to 35 mpg CAFE.
A 3L diesel engine in a minivan would be welcome here in the U.S.
>Gas is still too cheap and throwing a thirsty V6
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Phil L. 7:22AM (11/12/2007)
Ernie -
Dave is right. The Prius has only 2 LATCH positions. As does any form of the Camry or Accord (except the coupe - which has none).
Most vehicles that have a rear bench seat with 3 sets of seat belts only have 2 LATCH positions - a situation we began to realize just before our 3rd arrived.
I believe one or two models of full-size traditional American nameplate vehicles have rear seats with 3 LATCH positions - though I'm not sure if it's really practical to fit 3 car seats in that space (i.e., can anyone actually reach the mounting hardware or seat belt releases?). Last I checked, the import closest to the 'traditional full-size' category, the Toyota Avalon, still has only 2 LATCH positions.
If you skip LATCH, I have yet to see a rear bench seat with 3 child safety seats in it. Have you? Even a booster seat requires the child be able to reach the belt release, which means the seat has to be pretty wide to fit 3.
So... Where's a sedan that can meet my family's needs?
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Mike J 8:46AM (11/12/2007)
I'd buy any of VW's small cars today, and all of them are capable of 35+ MPG. Unfortunately VW wants to be late to the party. If the Fit and Yaris can sell at the pricepoint they sell at, I don't see why VW doesn't get at least one small car here ASAP.
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66coronet 3:42PM (11/12/2007)
If only the US government would have cleaned up the sulfer in diesel fuel 15 years ago. Then also push for biodiesel at the time when willy Nelson was helping the farmers. We could have been using cleaner burning diesels by 2000.
Now that we have the cleaner fuel and cleaner motors, it seems like they are still not clean enough do to nitrous oxide.
http://www.cleartheair.org/proactive/newsroom/release.vtml?id=17323
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MarkR 2:18PM (11/12/2007)
I don't think its a matter of people wanting small cars. but people wanting their SUV's to get better gas mileage. I for one want the 35/2020 std but no I won't give up my 20mpg highway Tacoma for a Prius. I Want the Prius technology in my Tacoma. Don't expect people to give up their larger cars for 35/2020, because I don't. I expect the Manufacturers to pass on the Technology to get the larger vehicles better gas mileage. I mean, Gas is only about 30-40% efficient, they need to try and get it to at least 60% or better as this MIT paper suggests. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/32832.
If Toyotat would do that I'd get an extra 4mpg on the highway, then if you add the Prius Technology. before you know it i'd have a Tacoma that would get close to 30mpg or better.
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Phil L. 1:42PM (11/12/2007)
ug -
There are those who would be annoyed by your simplistic comment. I'll just note that our kid count was complicated by twins. There's only so much planning you can do.
Meanwhile, no one makes those seats anymore. IIRC, safety concerns killed them off! I doubt that approach could pass most safety standards today.
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Ernie 5:20PM (11/12/2007)
MarkR said:
"I don't think its a matter of people wanting small cars. but people wanting their SUV's to get better gas mileage. I for one want the 35/2020 std but no I won't give up my 20mpg highway Tacoma for a Prius."
Oh, sure. People *want* their big SUVs to get better gas milage. But do you know *why* small cars get better milage?
Force is equal to mass times acceleration.
Power is force times distance divided by time.
But there's more! Internal combustion engines produce power by converting a liquid to a gas through a chemical reaction - in particular rapid oxidization. The gas is very hot and expands to many times its original size, and we harness this expansion by making it push on a piston which turns a crank. However, most of the energy is released as heat. About 25% of this energy is the kinetic energy useful for pushing the piston and the crank. In order for an ICE to work at all, you need to dissipate the heat (otherwise, the hot gasses won't really have anywhere to expand to). So a piston-powered internal combustion engine *must* waste about 75% of the energy in the fuel. There is no way around this, except with a completely different engine - none of which provide the instant-on power over a broad range of speeds that we've come to expect.
These things are taught in high school science classes. At a level at least 50% of students in America don't bother to take because they're elective. Which leads to at least 50% of Americans saying "I want my big SUV to get 35 MPG!"
The need for luxury isn't something that engineering can address however.
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mike 7:06PM (11/12/2007)
We could rapidly increase the mpg on SUV's Today. Simply fix the problem of Horsepower Creep. I swear I don't understand the Auto Industry plugging in bigger and bigger engines in SUV's when Fuel Costs are increasing, traffic congestion is increasing. Only 4 years ago you could get an SUV with 200 hp, of which in traffic, you could only use at most 40 hp. Now, today GM is offering 400 hp, of which, in traffic, you can only use 40 hp. This is a vast 10 TIMEs OVER CAPACITY. Now, is the auto industry building these SUV's for a market are attempting to Create A Market to kiss the bu**s of the Oil Industry.
Is the Auto Industry and the Oil Industry the Same Industry?
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Tim Russell 10:10PM (11/12/2007)
Phil L. The Accord coupe has LATCH in both rear seat positions. I know this because I own one and my daughters car seat is LATCHed in right now.
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