VW: if every car was a hybrid, the car industry would go bankrupt
In an interview with Inside Line, Wolfgang Hatz, head of powertrain for Volkswagen Group, had some harsh words for hybrids. Wolfgang said VW only makes hybrids because of political pressure, Toyota would have problems if they had to produce hybrids in high volume and the car industry would go bankrupt if someone said all cars had to be hybrids. Wolfgang said all this when he was asked "will hybrid become the dominant power source in the next few years?" and here is the full response:
Hybrid technology is a very expensive way to save a small amount of fuel. The cost/benefit analysis is quite on the expensive side, but we're politically pressed to develop hybrids by the U.S. market. If someone said that every car must be a hybrid, the car industry would be bankrupt quicker than anything else. Even Toyota would have problems if they had to produce hybrids in high volumes. But politically we have to do a certain amount of hybrids.
Wolfgang thinks VW will have have higher market share with clean diesels than hybrids in America because "people who drive a diesel never go back to gas." Wolfgang also thinks there is too much emphasis on C02 and "saying that we should only drive small cars is like saying that we should all live in tiny apartments." The interview ends with Wolfgang saying fuel cells won't be an alternative for the next 30 years but gas will be around in 30 years.
What do you think would happen to the car industry if someone mandated every new car be a hybrid?
Related:
[Source: Inside Line]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
earl 9:21AM (11/24/2007)
sounds like a typical global warming skeptic who couldn't care less about emmisions. Too bad this company didn't go the way it's furor did years ago.
Reply
Tony Belding 9:19AM (11/24/2007)
He has a lot of things right. Hybrids have always been questionable from a cost/benefit standpoint. Global warming hysteria has been overblown. Everybody shouldn't be forced to drive small cars.
Now here's the problem. . . Global oil production is bumping against a ceiling while demand still grows. We have to begin moving away from petroleum fuel, urgently. Conventional hybrids like the Prius don't accomplish that, and diesels don't accomplish that. To get there we need biofuels or grid electricity. If VW isn't developing these solutions, they're going to be left in the dust.
Reply
kert 9:19AM (11/24/2007)
Nobody will mandate such a thing, because it would be stupid.
However, mandating less emissions, reduced energy usage and less dependence on fossil fuels is a smart thing. Leave it up to car builders to come up with competitive solutions.
If they pick expensive hybrids and go bankrupt, well tough luck and stupid management. Competition at its finest, only the innovative survive.
Dictating technology solutions is picking winners before starting line. Dictating the rules of the competition is a necessity, however.
Reply
GreyFlcn 9:32AM (11/24/2007)
Frankly I agree.
Diesels are better than Hybrids from a cost-benefit standpoint, and from an emissions standpoint.
HCCI Engines could even surpass both and still run gasoline.
Only real jump away from that region is when you start making cars which drive primarily on electricity.
Reply
GreyFlcn 9:35AM (11/24/2007)
That said, biofuels are horrible from both a cost-benefit standpoint AND an emissions standpoint.
http://greyfalcon.net/oregon
http://greyfalcon.net/lca.png
http://greyfalcon.net/n2ostudy.png
Reply
mike 9:42AM (11/24/2007)
What Wolfgang says makes a lot of sense only if we never reach Peak Oil. Otherwise, he's grossly misinformed. Wolfgang better start talking to oil industry CEO's who've already said we have reached peak oil today.
And VW better find a way to build something like the Volt series hybrid because if gas goes to $6 he isn't going to be selling a lot of V10's V8's or V6's. He will be selling 3 cylinder and electric/hybrid cars.
Reply
rob 9:49AM (11/24/2007)
Wait, this is the same guy who just restarted VW's 1L car project, right?
Mixed message much?
Reply
Tony Belding 9:49AM (11/24/2007)
GreyFlcn. . . I'm not a big fan of biofuels, but I try to keep an open mind. (You'll notice I didn't mention hydrogen, which I think is DOA.) If we can ever get algae-derived biodiesel going on a large scale, it could fill a useful role.
Reply
rgseidl 10:09AM (11/24/2007)
Toyota has hybrid products that are selling well. VW doesn't have any because it hastily abandoned the Audi Avant Duo in the 90s instead of advancing the state of the art until it becomes commercially viable. The first and second gen Prius (1997-2002) were only sold in Japan and also something of a commercial flop.
VW does have diesel products that are selling well in Europe and, T2B5-compliant solutions that will hit US showrooms in 2008. Toyota has a few middle-of-the-road diesels and afaik no commitment to bring any to the US.
So surprise, surprise, a senior VW exec pooh-poohs hybrids and talks up diesels. Diesels are arguably the best available solution for the larger and heavier models - at least in fuel economy terms - but I would hardly call Mr. Hatz statement objective.
One thing I would agree with is that demand for hybrids exists only because of California's ZEV legislation in the context of US emissions regs, plus tax credits and carpool lane exemptions for certain early adopters. FCVs would not be developed at all if not for the ZEV mandate.
But then again, European demand for diesel engines is high only because emissions regs are not as strict as for spark ignition designs and, because fuel tax on diesel is 10-20% lower per unit of energy (varies by country).
Similarly, the kei car market in Japan exists only because of regulations regarding parking near the owner's home plus preferential road tax and insurance rates.
Ergo: the externalities of laws and regulations do have a very significant impact on the direction a particular market takes. Complaining that carmakers are "politically pressed" to produce any given technology sounds a little like sour grapes to me.
Reply
rgseidl 10:19AM (11/24/2007)
@rob -
the original 1L car (as in 1L/100km aka 230MPG) featured a single-cylinder 300cc diesel engine and no hybrid system. The project has been resuscitated by the board (not Mr. Hatz) only because they have found a supplier that can deliver the carbon fiber panels at substantially lower prices. It's really a platform for developing manufacturing competence with advanced materials more than anything else and, unlikely to hit high production volume.
I fail to see how any of this contradicts Mr. Hatz' position of straight diesels vs. gasoline hybrids.
Reply
Dave 11:07AM (11/24/2007)
re: the "tiny apartments comment", I'd say compared to what? If we're talking about the 4,000 sqft (Mc)Mansions being built everywhere, then yes - we should all live in tiny apartments.
As far as hybrids - it does seem like it would cost a lot to have two powertrains in one car, especially if they both need to provide power to the wheels. That said - what about series hybrids? Plug-ins?
Reply
Bill 11:49AM (11/24/2007)
VW does diesels well, so I'm not surprised they don't care about making gasoline-electric hybrids.
Very much looking forward to their new diesel models available next summer here in the U.S.
Reply
earl 12:53PM (11/24/2007)
My Toyota Prius 55mpg city
VW Jetta Diesel 28mpg city
yep, diesels are better than hybrids obviously.
Reply
ug 10:45PM (11/24/2007)
The automakers will go bankrupt if gas gets expensive enough and they have no viable alternatives.
Reply
Dad 4:34PM (11/24/2007)
Very smart fellow who lives and breaths the car business. When he speaks the truth, he gets hit in the head with a 2x4 by folks who no little or nothing about car production.
Bob
Reply
Throwback 5:49PM (11/24/2007)
I agree with most of what he says. Having a hybrid in the lineup is now required to be seen as 'caring' for the planet, whatever that means. The fact is most buyers want to save money first. I think hybrids make sense in some applications but if the Prius had a 1.5 liter turbo diesel I'm sure the gas mileage on the highway would be superior to the hybrid. The hybrid would have the advantage in city driving, which do you prefer? I think the HCCI engines will be the real winner when it comes to ICE.
Reply
Mike C. 6:41PM (11/24/2007)
Response to Earl #13.
Get your facts Straight please, EPA has long since been disregarded.
EPA for a Jetta diesel is 35 city, 42 highway, according to
http://cars.about.com/od/volkswagen/fr/pp_06jettatdi.htm
and those are highly underrated. Please, before you go posted something highly unfactual, please review your comment. Diesels are highly efficient, thats not to hybrids aren't however, however your post what inaccurate.
P.S. Diesels are better than Hybrids for many reasons if you would only open your eyes and see the whole picture. I would start explaining but seeing how childish your comment was i won't bother.
Reply
philmcneal 7:58PM (11/24/2007)
diesel = highway cruiser
hybrid = city dweller
pick the right tool for the job, and anyone says that their VW diesel can smoke my prius in a mileage match in the city, put your money where your mouth is (that's right a bet)
when it comes to highway, you can have the title, I know diesels love to cruise at low efficient RPMS, unlike the prius which has a RPM efficient range that you do not want to fall off of.
Reply
GreyFlcn 9:32PM (11/24/2007)
==diesel = highway cruiser
hybrid = city dweller==
Diesel Mild-Hybrids = Better at Both
Citroen makes quite a few of these, and other car makers are following.
==If we can ever get algae-derived biodiesel going on a large scale, it could fill a useful role.==
Just keep in mind, thats a pretty big "if".
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2007/05/algal-biodiesel-fact-or-fiction.html
http://algae-thermodynamics.blogspot.com
The bleeding-edge-limit of Photosynthesis can only capture 11% of incoming solar energy and convert it to energy. Which is on the crappy side of solar panel efficiencies.
http://greyfalcon.net/sugarsolar
Reply
Chris Guerra 1:54PM (11/25/2007)
In short, I agree with the statement that hybrids are too expensive to be the main fleet car.
I think there are two parts to his answer. The first part is a straight-up engineering answer: hybrids are an expensive way to increase fuel efficiency. Trivially true - you are adding weight to the car and new components, plus you (may) be complicating the drive-train, which does not necessarily add up to more efficiency. Diesel is better than gas in this respect as it is replacing a component (engine) with one of similar size but much greater efficiency. The mild hybrid idea (computer shuts off engine when you're not moving) would help more than a full hybrid. It adds little to the car and removes idling.
The second part is that VW is good at diesel, so all his answers will emphasize the area his company does best.
I personally am not terribly confident about hybrids because of the things they add to the main power plant. I like the Volt because of the complete change - a series hybrid uses a vastly more efficient power plant and adds a small generator (gas, diesel). Although this is a radically different drive train, there is a lot more potential for optimization.
Reply