Editorial: Is Malcolm Bricklin's vision clear?
Before proceeding with this post you might want to peruse the interview I did with Malcolm Bricklin at the Detroit Auto Show. Are you ready? Good, let's proceed. First let me say I like the premise of Bricklin's idea. There are plenty of little entrepreneurs out their with ideas to build EVs and PHEVs. But as I've discussed here on numerous occasions, the auto industry is one of the most capital intensive in the world. There are a lot of really great cars on the road today that have set an extraordinarily high standard for safety (this in large part due to regulation), reliability, durability and customer service. Sure cars have plenty of flaws but truthfully how many high-tech devices produced by the mavens of Silicon Valley can you point to that regularly run for 15-20 years in all kinds of operating conditions?
Although there are those of you who are willing to sacrifice a lot for environmentally-friendly transportation, the reality is that most people in developed auto markets are not. In the U.S. market buyers have a plethora of choices and although newcomers have jumped into the market at various times over the years, the ones that just aimed for the low end of the market have typically fallen by the wayside such as Daihatsu and of course perhaps the most infamous example, Yugo.
Continue reading after the jump.
When most people buy a new car, they expect it to simply work. They don't want any weird glitches or hiccups. People are willing to tolerate computers or MP3 players that randomly shut-down on occasion. An iPod that has a battery lose half if its charge capacity after year is annoying but passable. A car that randomly reboots or only goes half as far on a charge after 1-2 years simply not acceptable. With an internal combustion engine car, it will typically go almost as far after 100,000 miles as it does when it's new and it still only takes 5-10 minutes to fill the tank. If you have a plug-in vehicle that takes anywhere from 4-8 hours to charge and but only gets half the range after a few years people won't be happy, especially when they realize how much a new battery costs.
Bricklin's plan to make the power-train and energy storage systems for hybrid and electric cars available to other manufacturers has the potential to reduce the cost of these components. Unfortunately that is only a part of the solution. No matter how good those components may be, they must be integrated into a complete vehicle. That's actually the most difficult part of the development process. Insuring that regenerative and friction braking are blended seamlessly is not a trivial task. Drivers expect to press the brake pedal and get a consistent relationship between the pedal apply force and the vehicle deceleration. If the deceleration changes or is different, drivers will get upset and the likelihood of an accident is increased.
It's not clear at this time if Bricklin's plans include engineering support to manufacturers that join his program. Distribution and service are part of the plan. If the vehicles are not properly integrated and tested, the potential warranty costs and customer dissatisfaction could quickly sink the whole program just as it did with Yugo. The potential upside of this whole plan is huge for the electric car. Unfortunately the business risk and the likelihood of failure is even larger. I'd love to see this plan succeed and we'll be watching it carefully over the next few years. The odds are against it.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Throwback 8:58AM (1/24/2008)
Excellent points Sam. I think you have hit on the major issue that electric car proponents refuse to acknowledge. That is, we as car buyers have certain expectations when we get in a car and the vast majority of us are not willing to compromise. especially when we have alternatives that have worked fro us all of our adult lives. Will Americans take to plugging in their cars every night? There are large numbers of people who do not have a place to plug in their cars, apartment dwellers for example. As for Mr. Bricklin, he comes up with a "great" new idea every week it seems. I am still waiting for the 20k BMW beater from China. I wonder what the dealers he signed up for that venture think of his latest idea. I don't put any stock into anything Bricklin claims, with him, show me results then I will believe.
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Hmmm 6:58PM (1/24/2008)
First things first, that thing is UGLY. Looks like one of those awful 1950's futuristic visions. Or a bad bat-mobile. Words cannot describe how ugly that vehicle's body is. It's not the kind of ugly like the Prius, which only some people find as ugly. All people will recognize the ugliness of this car and be repulsed by it. It's the kind of ugly that's so bad, people must be afraid to point it out, and they assume they shouldn't have to. How could anyone ever approve a design so un-aesthetically pleasing?
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MitchJi 4:38PM (1/24/2008)
Hi,
The most ecological way (much less energy and materials as compared to building a car from scratch) to electrify our transportation is to convert existing cars to electric (PHEV's and BEV's). One of the big obstacles is the price of parts. Having high quality parts available at costs comparable to what big companies pay could really help this gain momentum. If only 5% or 10% of our drivers started driving vehicles converted to EV's it would make a substantial impact. This would could make the technology available for people who can't afford a new car.
Mitch
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Joseph 8:16PM (1/24/2008)
"electric car proponents refuse to acknowledge. That is, we as car buyers have certain expectations when we get in a car and the vast majority of us are not willing to compromise."
Of course electric vehicles make compromises! Name one vehicle that doesn't make compromises!
Remember that when hybrids came out they required sacarfices by the drivers and the car companies to put them out there for the market. Now, after that initial sacrafice, they're quickly making up for that. Hybrids are now mass produced vehicles. (About 181,000 Prius were sold last year: http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2008010326480)
Have you ever looked at a real old cell phone battery and compared it to a new one? The differences are dramatic, and demenstrates just how much lithium based batteries are improving.
Electric cars are rapidly moving towards filling the compromises they now make.
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Mik_Cal 2:51AM (1/25/2008)
That vehicle is just fugly. Compare it to the Fisker... I think Bricklin is just jumping on the bandwagon and not adding much.
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Throwback 4:06PM (1/25/2008)
Cars that do not require any compromise of it's drivers, Civic, accord, malibu, Camry, etc etc. My point is buyers do not have to buy an electric car. Unlike a cell phone which is significantly better than the previous generation, electric cars no matter the range, will still require us to plug them in. Will Americans be willing to plug in their cars everyday? That is the unanswered question. I think the Volt has the edge in this regard because you don't have to plug it in.
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