Lutz in tune with U.S. car buyers; sees flexfuel as more valuable than diesel
As I wrote earlier today, new car buyers in the U.S. are more in favor of hybrids than diesels - by a huge margin. Over at The Car Connection, we find some comments by GM's vice chairman Bob Lutz that are in alignment with the KBB study. Lutz's view is that diesels won't appeal to American buyers. The reason is price. Lutz said:
Frankly in the United States, with diesel fuel the same price as (gasoline), I don't think that many Americans are going to pay a $3,000 or $4,000 premium for a modern diesel engine. On top of the normal diesel premium, you now have advanced emission systems. Unless we decide to eat the cost, which unfortunately we can't afford to do, I think customers are going to say, 'Wait a minute. At equal fuel prices I'm paying $4,000 more for this.' It will not be like Germany.
So, the strike against diesels is the cost. Instead of the oil burners, Lutz predicts, customers will drive green through flex-fuel vehicles. Convenient, considering that GM just announced a big cellulosic ethanol deal with Coskata. Still, we're getting a pretty good idea today of the image trouble diesels have in the U.S.
Related:
- Lutz says gas prices will need to go up if Americans are to embrace small cars
- Detroit 2008: GM and Coskata announce worldwide cellulosic ethanol partnership
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
mikeSeven 8:32PM (1/28/2008)
Huh? Where does Bob get his info?
I don't see a $4000 difference in the UK:
http://www.bmw.co.uk/bmwuk/carcomparator/0,,1156_148729998__bs-MQ%3D%3D@bb-S08%3D,00.html#
I see an $800 dollar premium.
I think most Americans could afford that difference.
Currency converter:
http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic
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MikeW 8:38PM (1/28/2008)
The want to sell vehicles that use E70/85 so they can boost their CAFE, while they expect the public to pay a higher $/mile.
I am sick of the E10 gas, it cost 3+% for nothing, although in retrospect it is better than the groundwater contamination of MTBE.
How about the 6L80 & coaxial camshafts for variable valve timing in the 5.3 V8 (350hp, 350ft-lbs) in the regular Tahoe.
The 4x2 Tahoe hybrid got abysmal mileage (and does it have a spare wheel?) Maybe after some mileage it can improve to 20mpg, so what does the four wheel drive version get 18 maybe 19mpg?.
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/Drives/Followup/articleId=124466
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Tim 8:53PM (1/28/2008)
Where's the E-85 pumps and where's the NON-corn based fuel?
Hi, my name is Peter Pan. I have a car that runs on Pixie Dust. Got any?
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Snowdog 8:59PM (1/28/2008)
Argh. More Ethanol boondoggle support from Maximum Bob. Basically he is pro ethanol, because it costs next to nothing to implement and while it does essentially nothing beneficial it earns GM CAFE boondoggle credits. Typical E85 performance: Chev Impala(fuel econ.gov):
Gas 18 city 29 hwy
E85 14 city 21 hwy
Yeah, I really want that.If you have read about ethanol production you know it nets about 30% increase in energy per gallon produced. Which is just about the amount of mileage you lose with e85. So the net benefit to the environment of ethanol is just about an Even Zero. Not to mention costing you more money to drive the same range.
This is the new GM?
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Tony Belding 9:44PM (1/28/2008)
mikeSeven: AFAIK the UK doesn't (yet) have the extremely strict emission standards for diesels that are now in force in the USA. What drives the price up in America is the extra emissions-control gear they have to add. Some have likened it to adding a tiny chemical factory to each car.
Tim and Snowdog: GM is investing in new technology to produce ethanol from a wide range of feedstocks. Almost all of ethanol boosters these days see corn as merely a brief stepping stone to cellulosic ethanol or other sources. How close is that to mass production? I dunno. . . A lot of people believe it's a lot closer than "pixie dust". Or hydrogen, which is about the same as pixie dust.
I'm no huge fan of ethanol, but I think biofuels (mainly ethanol and biodiesel) will have a role to play in the future. How big a role is hard to say. I still think BEVs and PHEVs are the big game-changer.
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Jimmy 10:20PM (1/28/2008)
Snowdog: Energy calculations in ethanol studies are all done in standard energy units -- Joules and sometimes BTU. Gallons are less relevant when dealing with alternative fuels. With a given engine technology, BTU/mile is pretty much constant with gasoline or ethanol. Ethanol will allow higher efficiency engines, but at the moment GM USA still uses very simple designs.
Personally, I think both ethanol and biodiesel will have a large role to play in the future. I think PHEVs will be a popular minority and BEVs will be a small niche market.
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GreyFlcn 1:55AM (1/29/2008)
More like "Out of tune" with consumers.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/12/02/gm-responds-to-usa-today-and-rand-study-on-diesel-hybrid-ethanol
Less than 1% of all ethanol sold in 2006 was a E85 blend. And in total, Ethanol was less than less than 3% of liquid transport fuels. Effectively giving it less than 0.03% of the US liquid fuel sales.
Meanwhile diesel makes up about 21% of US liquid fuel sales.
http://greyfalcon.net/e85stations.png
If you think Diesel costs too much, then Ethanol costs even more. (And thats not even counting the lavish subsidies, where over 1/3rd the total price of the fuel is subsidized)
http://greyfalcon.net/biotaxes.png
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GreyFlcn 1:56AM (1/29/2008)
Less than 1% of all ethanol sold in 2006 was a E85 blend. And in total, Ethanol was less than less than 3% of liquid transport fuels. Effectively giving it less than 0.03% of the US liquid fuel sales.
Meanwhile diesel makes up about 21% of US liquid fuel sales.
http://greyfalcon.net/e85stations2.png
(^^ Now with the correct chart)
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Snowdog 8:32AM (1/29/2008)
Jimmy it doesn't matter how you measure it. When you only net 30% energy gain and then lose about 30% of fuel economy burning it, you are clearly gaining nothing.
Everyone still uses simple designs, this 30% loss of economy is across the board for every "E85" engine I have seen. Largely because these are gas engines that will burn E85, they are not optimized to burn E85.
Just more of the Ethanol boondoggle that gives the big three CAFE credits for a non solution.
Ethanol has a ton of problems as a fuel. Butanol would be a better research avenue. Corn Ethanol is nothing more than politcal farce.
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Jimmy 9:47AM (1/29/2008)
snowdog, the corn ethanol 1:1.3 energy return is based on standard energy units, BTUs or joules, NOT gallons. When you switch from petrol to ethanol in a given engine, the BTU/mile or MJ/KM remains basically the same. Your "30% loss of economy" is looking a gallons, but you don't measure energy in gallons. There is no second "30% loss". At the pump you will need to buy more gallons but you are buying about the same amount of energy.
Secondly, in other parts of the world - Sweden and Brazil perhaps - you will find much more modern, efficient flex fuel designs than currently sold in the States. For example DOHC, multivalve, turbo charged aluminum engine versus a GM OHV pushrod.
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Drew 12:25PM (1/29/2008)
So, I understand the premium for the Diesel emissions control systems, but why is there a "standard premium" for Diesel? I imagine because US automakers have invested all their manufacturing might in the direction of gas engines. This is why GM is embracing E85, because it involves the tiniest step away from what they're already doing. They aren't looking at efficiency. I don't see him talking about the longer lifespan of Diesel engines. People are already converting incandescent lights to CFL's and LED's with the same long-term investment.
I saw something recently referring to the Opel Flextreme as also a Saturn. Will GM be selling this car in the US market? Will they be offering it with the Diesel range extender? I doubt it. It seems Bob Lutz is trying to convince everyone that the technology that makes the most sense in each market is the one that puts the most cash in GM's pockets. I guess I don't blame him, because it's his job, but it's up to us to show GM that they need to continue in the direction of REEV's rather than focusing on flex fuel vehicles.
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Joe 12:56PM (1/29/2008)
I'm surprised that nobody brought up the increase MPG when using diesel over other fuels. That alone could make up for the premium of diesel engines, depending on how long the owners planned on keeping the car.
My current accord gets 24 mpg in town, where the diesel accord that is coming out is supposed to get 40-52, which is a very significant increase. I would pay the initial cost, if I knew it would save me over the long run.
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MATT 7:03PM (1/29/2008)
What....E-85 has less BTUs per gallon, or pound,so no matter which way you look at it you lose. The ONLY way to make Ethanol run efficaintly is higher (14:1) compressions or super/turbocharging, and even then it does not have the same energy per gallon. That is one of the reasons Diesel is better more BTUs per gallon. E-85 is a government sponsered way help farmers pay for not getting fair price for their crops. ITS BS, BS, BS.
It will cost more out of your pocket to use that crap. If you have do burn more gallons to have the same amount of energy,so if E85 and E10 were the same price, which it would be if you removed the BS subsity, It would COST you more,after all JIMMY WE BUY IT BY THE GALLON...
Well GM is killing the Diesels....again, if you consider what he said about spending $4000 for a diesel, he's wrong a 4 door cobalt runs $18,000 and
a VW jetta TDI runs about 23-25K and get more MPGs (like 50% more) and 300,000 miles before a rebuild, I see more TDI's making the 50 mile commute to work than cobalts, furthermore that 4 grand comes back as resale value, look at trucks.
Its a cop out for not stepping up and building a REAL fuel mizer. He himself is a liar... why build the DURAMAX then just put that 8100 gas hog in all your crappy trucks.
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mike 7:39PM (1/29/2008)
Tony, the BMW engine meets the Euro V standard. Are you saying going to Euro VI is going to add $3000 dollars to the price of the engine? I don't believe it.
If you have a URL you could publish I'd be glad to read it.
Thanks
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mike 7:47PM (1/29/2008)
Isn't this BMW 1 5 Door Beautiful?
http://www.bmw.co.uk/bmwuk/index/0,,1156_148729998__bs-MQ%3D%3D%40bb-S08%3D,00.html
I am just AMAZED at what you can buy in the UK. This Low Volume car has SIX engine choices, 3 are diesel.
What ever happened to the "promise of Automation"? It Moved to Great Britain. The overwhelming circumstantial evidence points to US Oil Industry Compensation to the heads of the US Auto Industry to build a Fleet of Guzzlers, and nothing else.
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