Peak oil is the newest boogeyman in popular media
A culture's fears always finds its way into that culture's media. The best example is probably the allegories of McCarthyism in the film Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Peak Oil and climate change have seen their share of movie dramatizations, but Mad Max and The Day After Tomorrow were more cartoon-ish than terrifying.Now, eco/oil fears - such as abandoned cars in the poster (right) of M Night Shyamalan's new movie "The Happening" - are becoming more heart pounding. The depictions of peak oil in entertainment are becoming more realistic as well, taken directly from expert predictions in documentaries like CNN's We Were Warned.
Below the fold is the trailer for the video game Frontlines: Fuel of War which includes things, I have to admit, I found a little scary. I had to remind myself of the current date when the voice over talked about black outs in the Summer of 2008. "They said it would get better," a voice says and then mentions biofuels as a solution.
Am I stupid to be this afraid by a video game back story?
[Source: YouTube]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
KarenRei 5:44PM (3/14/2008)
Yes.
This hysteria has been going on for a century and a half, and it's based on a complete misunderstanding of two things about resource extraction of any sort and the concept of "economically recoverable reserves": 1), that "economically" is defined by how much people are willing to pay for it (the higher the price, the more that comes online -- typically exponentially more), and 2) the concept of "recoverable" is limited by technology -- the more advanced the technology, the cheaper the resource can be extracted. This applies to all resources, but *certainly* to one that we can create from thin air (quite literally; if prices were high enough, we could create it from CO2 and H2O via Fischer-Tropsh/Sabatier synthesis).
There's a reason why world estimated reserves of conventional crude alone went from 60B in 1920 to 600B in 1950 to 1,500B in 1970 to 2,000B in 1980 to 2,400B in 1994 to 3,000B in 2000 *while we've been extracting*. And it's a complete lie that most of the world has been explored (the Arctic, Antarctic, and deep sea regions have barely been explored at all), that oil shale, coal liquefaction, and bitumen production can't be expanded fast enough (they'll expand as fast as investors want to throw money at them; there's no shortage of shuttered steel mills in Appalachia that would love to reopen, college students picking degrees who want the best salary possible, unemployed engineers in India and China who want jobs, unskilled labor around the planet, etc), and so on. There's virtually boundless fuel out there. Increasingly dirty fuel, mind you, but virtually boundless amounts of it.
Much more here:
http://www.daughtersoftiresias.org/greenwiki/Peak_oil
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature's laboratory." -- Kier's Rock Oil ad, 1855
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BlackbirdHighway 5:55PM (3/14/2008)
Peak oil is not about running out of oil, it's about running out of cheap, easy to get oil. We still produce oil in the US, although US production production peaked in the 70's. The US now has about five times more oil wells, but only produces about half as much oil. It's just no longer cheap or easy to produce oil in the US. Someday it will no longer be cheap or easy to produce oil in the rest of the world. That day may be coming soon, but it's not going happen overnight. It will take some time to kick in. But it will also take considerable time to switch to alternatives, and that is the reason for concern. Not alarm, concern.
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fnc 7:04PM (3/14/2008)
Care to guess who owns the land that contains one of the largest reserves of oil in the world?
The U.S. government.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_River_%28Utah%29
I'm not afraid of running out of oil, I'm way more terrified of how much there actually is left to burn. I've read that the demand curve is practically flat right now, so the latest run-up is probably due more to speculation than anything else, probably investors seeking what they know is a safe haven in the mortgage fallout. I'll be interested to see what this does to average fuel economy of the U.S. fleet, however. I've read that it began to skyrocket after the oil shock of the 70's, and that was with 1970's tech. If the market were to truly demand efficient autos, it could make CAFE a drop in the bucket. Moreso than that, if this really creates the inflection point where alternatively powered car technology becomes affordable (I consider a number of electric autos viable, just not affordable right now, battery tech needs a bit of work), then things get very interesting. This spike in the price of fuel could very well be what winds up greatly reducing demand for it in the future.
But as to the media boogeyman thing... Remember all the furor over Y2K and how bad that was going to be? I tend to find that whatever the media is screeching about generally isn't as big a deal as it really is. If anything, all these scary spooly stories will help America move towards greater efficiency, and that's a good thing.
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KarenRei 7:10PM (3/14/2008)
". The US now has about five times more oil wells, but only produces about half as much oil. It's just no longer cheap or easy to produce oil in the US"
It's funny that you say that, because actually, remember back when the US "peaked" in the 1970s? Oil produced in the US today, which is competitive with global market rates, costs barely more it did back in the late 1970s. Now, you can point out that the 1970s had the oil embargo, but today has the weak dollar (and people hedging on oil against it), Iraq at half production, the threat of war with Iran, lots of oil nationalization, instability in Nigeria, the US filling the strategic reserves, and major rig destruction in the gulf from Katrina and Rita. Furthermore, oil pumped by these "five times more wells" (which tend to be deeper, too) producing "half as much" total is cheaper, adjusted for inflation, than it was in the mid to late 1800s wwhen it *mostly came from oil seeps that went straight to the surface*.
Welcome to the world of advancing technology and its affect on prices.
Whatever countries will bear the brunt of production will always be a balance between what is available and how much it costs to produce there. When oil prices rise, you get "multi peak" states as suddenly new, formerly "uneconomical" reserves are suddenly now affordable -- for example, Canada, Venezuela, Russia, etc. In the US, our next peak will be whenever shale and coal liquefaction are cost competitive with bitumen and deep sea production.
Anyways, it's kind of funny that this topic came up, because I've been listening a lot to the version of "My Only Enemy" from "Jesus Christ Supercop", which has a newcaster cheerfully announcing aspects of the apocalypse as breaking news near the end. So whenever I hear all of this peak oil doomsdayism, I can't help but hear, "Here's a fun fact: the moon has turned to blood!"
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Turbofrog 7:37PM (3/14/2008)
Despite growing demand, global oil production decreased in 2007, and that happened in a year without any severe disruptions (such as Hurricane Katrina, which hurt refining capacity along the Gulf Coast).
There are plenty of analysts who believe oil peaked in Dec. 2005, or thereabouts. It's already happened.
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Charles S 9:28PM (3/14/2008)
I'm pretty sick of all the back and forth about the term Peak Oil. It all detracts from the topic at hand; can we count on oil as a source of fuel for our future.
People who concentrate on debunking Peak Oil always want to talk about the SOURCE of oil, but what matters more is the SUPPLY and ACCESS. US cannot sustain it's current consumption, and we cannot assume that foreign nations would WANT to supply us with their exports. Worse, in some cases, certain exports nations may not be able to do so, as their internal consumption grows, such as Iran.
Mexico is on a decline and the cost of tar sand is ballooning. Maybe there is a will to sell petro products, but there is little sign that cost of extraction will go down any time soon. Experienced labor forces is tight; shortages in equipment means expansion will be slow; factors like climatic or man-made disruptions will likely slow progress. These factors are the reasons why I do not think "technology" will bring the costs down like some have hoped.
I think it matters little if people want to believe in the term Peak Oil or not. As long as there is no shortages, we will buy gas at any price. Even if it's $10/gal, people will get used to it.
However, for whatever reason that a shortage occurs (hurricanes, WWIII, China buys every drop), it would REALLY be pointless if people want to argue that there are PLENTY OF OIL in the ground somewhere....
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Wise Golden 9:48PM (3/14/2008)
Am I stupid to be this afraid by a video game back story?
No. Not stupid at all. Even though I am aware that we have enough oil to last for a while, I am reasonably convinced that our nation is going to be aked to do something that it will find unpalatable in order to keep our supply (deney Isreal -- 1973 -- I don't think that's over yet.) With our oil now in the hands of an increasingly hostile world thanks to Bill Clinton, we can expect something worse on the horizen.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
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meme 11:21PM (3/14/2008)
"Despite growing demand, global oil production decreased in 2007, and that happened in a year without any severe disruptions (such as Hurricane Katrina, which hurt refining capacity along the Gulf Coast).
There are plenty of analysts who believe oil peaked in Dec. 2005, or thereabouts. It's already happened."
To borrow the language of the first doomers back in the 1800s, "poppycock'. Check out chart 2:
http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/2008_january_oilwatch_monthly.pdf
In short: wrong yet again. Add another dozen wrong calls to the list. Of course, when you make your living as a professional scaremongerer calling every fluctuation in supply and demand "peak oil", you have to expect that.
You know why it's always "peak oil"? Because these doomers quite literally call it every few years. Campbell's peaks: 1989, 1991, 1995, 2004, 2010. Pickens: 2004, early 2005, mid 2005, late 2005, 2006, and so on. Name your doomer, and I can probably get you half a dozen dates they've predicted peak oil for.
It's not scientific; it's just scaremongering wish-fulfillment. And I'm dead serious about that; check out any of the "peak oil" forums, and you'll see people waxing blissful about life after oil crashes and billions of SUV drivers and fast food addicts who didn't listen to them die off. The US government disappears, the rivers become clean, the air becomes fresh, the animals return, mass-produced food disappears people return to the farms and live that (falsely idealized) glorious life of a serf once again in the beautiful outdoors.
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Wise Golden 12:04AM (3/15/2008)
meme, You're right about the idea that oil is still around. I just wonder about the politics that might get in the way of delivery. You're also right that some of the peak oil folks just wish it were true -- they want harm to befall mankind. They live in a goth world and hope for a return to the dark ages.
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Rojo 12:58AM (3/15/2008)
Be very afraid! If peak oil wasn't bad enough, the Giant Extra-dimensional Insectoid Martians are invading with their .01 MPG Super Star Undoer Vessels (SSUV?) firing compressed C02 missiles, dropping tree-cutter bombs and exploding super-dirty thermonuclear warheads to steal Earth's last drop of oil!
Too easy. Peak oil (the doom and gloom version) isn't happening right now, it didn't happen in 2005 and it never will happen. As gas prices continue their steady climb, demand for alternative fuel and EV/PHEV vehicles continues rising ever higher (THIS is happening now). 'Peak oil' will happen around 2015-2017, when global *demand* actually decreases, not global supply.
How's that for speculation? Invest in battery companies.
Also, Fallout (2) had a decent (if brief) oil-centric back story for the end of civilization. Oddly enough, you get to drive around in a pre-war EV.
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armmat 2:05AM (3/15/2008)
Media is the only way in which to communicate to Americans...other ways are useless and inefficient and just take too much thinking on the part of individuals here.
So if learning about peak oil/pollution/etc is done so through such channels, all the better..maybe this will finally mobilize people in this country to clean up their crap after they are done.
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armmat 2:16AM (3/15/2008)
And for the bunch who thinks peak oil is "all made up hoopla"...you guys are crazy. You're on a different planet altogether.
Besides, if for not that reason alone, there are so many other reasons to leave oil as a fuel source...it's dirty, it's caused wars since it was found, it's just bad stuff in and out.
And I simply don't understand this whole "fearmongering" philosophy you people have. It's OK to fearmonger people into killing each other yet it's bad to tell people that we should try and invest in new technologies, improve our environment, and improve our overall health? Seriously..how much contempt to do you lot have for humankind and this planet in general to not want to try and improve our overall global situation?
Honestly, I've never come across more retarded thinking...ever...in any thread before.
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ug 2:23AM (3/15/2008)
I agree with the other poster. You can believe whatever you wish, but the reality on the ground is oil is getting rapidly more expensive and it's not just due to speculators. So blame who or whatever you want (Bill Clinton, wtf??) but in the end you're still going to fill up your SUV just the same. Even evil Bush has told us that we're addicted to oil and people curse him with one hand and stick the needle in their arm with the other.
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mike 12:15PM (3/15/2008)
Let's just throw into the mix: China is now the 3rd largest buyer of oil on World Markets. Thanks to Wal-Mart, US CEO's GREED and "Free Trade".
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Bill 1:10PM (3/15/2008)
But at the mythical $10/gallon, only U.S. and Europe will be buying - everybody else will go back to bicycles or shank's mare.
As real estate has shown, there is NO "decoupling" between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
The U.S. may go through another 1981-style recession, but the rest of the world will be in much worse shape.
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mike 2:32PM (3/15/2008)
Wal-Mart has jump started the largest economy in the world. They will laugh at our "recession".
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armmat 3:17PM (3/15/2008)
@ BILL,
No the rest of the world won't be in much worse shape...the rest of the world already has a somewhat better sense of reality and already deals wit high price of fuel, cost of living, etc...real LIFE stuff that this generation of SUV driving, McMansion buying Americans have no real clue about yet...
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Ruby 8:42PM (3/15/2008)
From Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands
most Canadian oil production in the 21st century is from oil sands or heavy oil deposits
Canada is now the largest single supplier of oil and refined products to the United States
current average cost of production for tar sands is $28 per barrel
Canada has oil sands reserves approximately equal to the world's total reserves of conventional crude oil.
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Bill 11:08AM (3/16/2008)
Like it or not, the US and Europe provide the demand for the rest of the world
None of the 3rd world countries have the domestic demand sufficient to keep their factories running when first world nations stop buying from them.
They'll be worried about affording food, not about the price of petrol.
>No the rest of the world won't be in much worse shape
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Wally 8:22AM (3/17/2008)
Don't see where it matters all that much anyway since the world ends in 2012. What? You don't beleive that prediction by the Azteks (another long-lost culture)?
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