Diesels on the way out in Germany?
click above image for high-res gallery of the BMW 335i Convertible
Germany's Centre Automotive Research (CAR) at the college of Gelsenkirchen has commissioned a new study which seems to indicate the the market share for diesel vehicles in Germany has peaked. There are many reasons highlighted in the study, not the least of which is the rising cost of diesel fuel in Europe. Also under scrutiny is the shrinking efficiency difference between the average diesel vehicle and some of the newest high-tech gasoline powered cars and hybrids. Technology trends such as BMW's recent twin-turbocharging, as featured in popular models like the 335i (seen above), and Volkswagen's Twincharger system are narrowing the gap between gas and diesel power and mileage.
Also cited as a potential snag for diesel car owners is the resale value for diesel vehicles. Apparently, the cost increase association with the purchase of a new diesel vehicle doesn't translate into higher resale value. For these reasons and a few others, the CAR study, led by Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, forecasts a market share decrease of eight percent for diesel vehicles over the next decade or so. Could the U.S. actually make headway when it comes to the diesel disparity between it and Europe?
[Source: Just-Auto]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Mr Brody 1:06AM (5/21/2008)
Good, out with the diesels. Diesel as a alternative fuel is a sham. Even bio diesels because it is not sustainable (unless alge comes through)and Electric Cars are more efficient anyway.
And for the most important reason why I am happy diesel is on the way out is the probability that diesel will always pollute the air more than gas. Not that gas is good. But why pollute?
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Grent 7:35AM (5/21/2008)
Where do you think the electricity comes from to recharge those electric vehicle batteries? If you think that electric cars are zero emissions, then you're missing the big picture.
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s10 8:17AM (5/21/2008)
@ Grent
Electric energy can come from many different sources.. in any way it is much cheaper, efficient and less polluting to produce electricity centrally and then distribute it... or would you prefer a diesel cellphone, diesel dishwasher, diesel plasma screen...
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TORR 8:41AM (5/21/2008)
s10- Once again look at the big picture. Just because you dont SEE the emissions from the electrical generating plant doesnt make it less of an issue. Out of site out of mind? Besides diesels will be zero emission by 2012 with all the particulate filters required by regulations going into effect. Still, I hate diesels and will never own one, but get your facts straight.
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Phil L. 8:46AM (5/21/2008)
This is the first time I've heard that the famously-popular European diesels don't hold their value on the resale market. While I haven't checked closely, it seems that isn't the case in the US; TDIs and old Mercedes diesels appear to command a premium on the used market.
Anyone have further info on this topic? This could have a big impact on folks looking to spend more up front on a diesel car to save on fuel costs - but might need to sell in a few years, particularly with diesel costs being above gasoline in the US right now.
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wxman 10:10AM (5/21/2008)
It's amazing that the "diesels-are-more-polluting-than-gas-engines" myth still persists. Seems we can't get through a discussion of diesel engines without this nonsense being raised.
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MarcT 11:56AM (5/21/2008)
@Phil-
Just a couple weeks ago one of these blogs (ABG, TTAC, I dont remember) ran a story saying that the nororiously high US diesel resale values had been plummeting as well. This is undoubtedly due to 2 factors- the incoming wave of new diesel cars in addition to the high cost of diesel fuel. While the diesels were scarce and made good economic (if not environmental) sense, the resale values were high. Since neither of those factors is true any longer, the resale values dont hold up.
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Phil L. 12:37PM (5/21/2008)
MarcT -
I found it:
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/diesel-depreciation-deja-vu/
I haven't noticed the trend in my area - but then I haven't been watching closely, either. The comments on the TTAC item seem to suggest it's still somewhat dependent on where you are.
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armmat 3:31PM (5/21/2008)
Diesel is the biggest farce and joke of the automotive industry. Get 1.5 times the mileage while only being able to make 1/2 as much diesel (clean) per barrel of crude. Very smart indeed.
The lower pollution levels of diesels comes at a cost of extra refining...creating more pollution in the process and using twice as many resources as a result.
So the myth is not baseless...it's just hard for people who can't think beyond the tailpipe to comprehend.
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wxman 4:46PM (5/21/2008)
@ armmat
According to UC-Davis, gasoline requires about 86% MORE energy to "refine" than ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel ( http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/publications/2003/UCD-ITS-RR-03-17-MAIN.pdf ).
There is far more "naturally occurring" middle distillate in a barrel of crude oil than there is gasoline ( http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2174 ), and even this "straight-run" gasoline is unsuitable for motor vehicle fuel because it's too low in octane (about 70). The only reason that there's twice as much gasoline produced from refineries is because, and only because, that's the way they're currently configured.
According to EPA's AP-42, about 10 POUNDS of raw gasoline vapors are emitted from the storage and distribution of gasoline in the supply chain. Diesel fuel is relatively non-volatile (0.027 pounds/1000 gallons distributed). Not only are these gasoline vapor emissions a colossal waste of resources (gasoline), they are a major contributor to urban smog.
Do you have any *ANY* references to back up your claims?
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wxman 4:51PM (5/21/2008)
That should have been:
"According to EPA's AP-42, about 10 POUNDS of raw gasoline vapors are emitted from the storage and distribution per 1000 gallons of gasoline in the supply chain." (10 pounds/1000 gallons)
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Kevin Nugent 7:53PM (5/21/2008)
Screw what that study says diesels in countries such as germ nay will not go any where for atleast the next 10 years , . They have built there whole infrastructure off of diesel and what they are just going to magically switch to gas ?? I think not . Not atleast for a decade s
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Mr Brody 11:38PM (5/22/2008)
Everything that I have read on EPAs web site indicates that the pollutants from diesel is much worse and that diesel cars will never be as clean as gas.
I dont think that new "not so clean " diesels will sell in the US much because the gross premium on the fuel and the skyrocketing premium on the exhaust after treatment. That is why The VW TDI was dead on arrival in 2008.
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