Volkswagen predicts U.S. diesel share could hit 30% by 2018
Volkswagen is undoubtedly a big proponent of diesel engines, having introduced them to the U.S. market in the late 1970s and then continuing to offer them here on and off since then. The next big push starts this summer with the new Jetta TDI followed at the end of the year by the new Touareg TDI. Most manufacturers and analysts have been projecting that diesels would eventually capture about 10-15 percent of the U.S. market over the next decade. Volkswagen, however, is being significantly more bullish, at least with respect to their own lineup. At the Automotive News Europe Congress in Turin, Italy VW director of powertrain research projected that over the next ten years diesel would account for 30 percent of the company's U.S. sales. This projection is actually not much of a stretch for VW. Historically when VW has offered diesels in the US, they have accounted for 15 percent of sales. The Jetta is VW's top selling nameplate in the U.S. and the TDI is projected to account for about 40 percent of those sales. As more diesels are added in the coming years, doubling the market share to 30 percent seems entirely plausible.
[Source: Autoweek]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Ian 9:20AM (5/20/2008)
Volkswagen is plain WRONG and they know it.
1) Diesel emgines are more expensive to produce and repair
2) Diesel fuel in the USA costs 25-30$ MORE than gasoline. i.e. diesel is NOT given the artificial tax advantage as in Europe
3) Mileage gains by diesels do not make economic sense over the newer Hybrids such as the ones GM is rolling out 2009/10.
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Throwback 9:53AM (5/20/2008)
I do think the TDIs will be sucessful in the USA. VW diesels have a fairly large and dedicated following. Similiar to Mercedes diesels
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Phil L. 10:15AM (5/20/2008)
VW may be right - but that have a ways to go.
The fuel price difference in the US may end up killing diesel as effectively as GM diesel cars did in the 80s. This could also change as refineries adjust their production techniques. It seems the price shot up about the time ultra-low sulphur fuel was mandated. Will it head back down as capacity catches up with demand?
Yes, I see VW diesels on the road, but I'm not ready to buy one (and I can't afford Mercedes). VW still has a reputation of good designs - that aren't implemented well, and result in pricey maintenance. I hope they overcome this long enough to produce something I can actually use: A diesel minivan.
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BrianM 10:39AM (5/20/2008)
I purchased a used 2001 Jetta TDI in 2005. To date I have put 80k miles on it, on top of the 80k that were already on the car. It has required Tires (twice), timing belt replacement (did myself, $600 including the tools), oil changes, filter replacements (oil, fuel, air, cabin), and just recently a water temp sensor replacement ($15).
How exactly is that high maintenance? It's all normal consumables that need to be done on Every vehicle. Yes, the timing belt was more of a PITA than on my Toyota T100 (v6 truck), but I've spent roughly the same dollars on both vehicles.
I think there's a FALSE stigma attached to VW on the build quality/durability. The things I don't like are the 'rubberized' coating on the interior plastic.. it's got a bad case of dandruff. And the paint is terrible, the front of the car looks sand-blasted (they do lay gravel/dirt on the roads through the winter here in Wyoming though).
As for fuel cost, even at ~$0.60/gallon more locally, it works out that a gasser/hybrid would need to AVERAGE 40mpg to meet the same fuel economy that I'm seeing. The Prius owners I know are all getting mid-30's around here (mix of in-town and highway).
I'd buy another diesel in a heartbeat (hoping Audi brings their A3 over in Diesel, or BMW their 1 series... though I'm not a big fan of BMW design). I'd go out of my way to buy a Diesel Hybrid w/ plug-in ability.
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Chad 11:25AM (5/20/2008)
I'm with Phil L. VW needs to put their 2.0 TDI in the new Routan minivan (rebadged Dodge Caravan). It might not be the quickest vehicle, but it could probably do 40 mpg on the highway.
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Chris 11:25AM (5/20/2008)
Yet VW isn't bringing the diesel Tiquan (sp) to the states anytime soon. HELLO!
I am looking at an EOS, deciding that sensible isn't enjoyable (have a civic ex) but I would love to see this EOS in a diesel here in the states.
Note to VW. If you want diesels to take off then work on getting every version of your line with one.
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PapaWhiskey 2:29PM (5/20/2008)
I won't buy a hybrid until I'm convinced that the cabin is sufficiently shielded from the electro magnetic field and the resulting electro magnetic radiation. Also, how much is it going to cost to recycle the hybrid batteries at the end of their life, and replace with new batteries?
VW needs to bring the Rabbit TDI over now! Otherwise it will take far longer for them to reach their 30% goal.
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ug 3:29PM (5/20/2008)
Want shielding? Wear a tinfoil hat.
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Phil L. 4:48PM (5/20/2008)
BrianM -
Admittedly, most of my VW bias comes from friends who have owned gas VWs - and gave up in pure frustration. One friend sold his almost-new VW after about 1 year - and 6 tow truck trips to the dealer in that time. He couldn't afford to be stranded at the side of the road all the time; neither can I.
It seems the TDIs are better - but I haven't had enough close acquaintances with them to convince me yet. VW - and any other car maker - will need to prove their worth to me over the long haul.
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Karkus 5:06PM (5/20/2008)
There's a BIG difference between 10-15% of the entire US sales, and 30% of VW's sales being diesel. Heck even if VW and MB and BMW and Audi sold 100% diesels here, that would still only be a few %.
The only thing stopping VW from selling 30 % of their vehicles as diesels in the US is VW's low production of their new clean TDI's. If VW made diesel versions of all of their models available here, they could probably reach their 30% goal next year.
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JGoh 5:57PM (5/20/2008)
As I recall, something like 50% of VWs sales in Canada are diesel. I see more diesel Jettas and Passats than any other model.
Moreover, the diesel cars are manufactured in Europe, not in Mexico or China, which accounts for why they don't break down as often. At least, it correlates well. I haven't had a significant mechanical problem from my VW in the 2 years that I've had it. And that's through 2 pretty cold winters.
I only drive about 20k km a year, I spend about $60 a fillup (now that diesel prices have gone up), and I only fill up once every 3-4 weeks. My WORST tank was 25mpg in -35C weather and with a bunch of wheel spinning.
I'd take a diesel again. I keep mailing BMW to tell them that their 123d would have a home in my garage, but they still haven't announced anything about it. (Though they always reply politely to my emails.)
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Snowdog 7:08PM (5/20/2008)
50% of Canadian Jetta wagons were diesel IIRC.
But 30% line wide might be a tad optimistic with rising diesel prices.
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Dave 1:39PM (5/21/2008)
I drove a Fiat 1.9 liter turbo diesel minivan for four years while living in Europe, and it was utterly reliable. Strong too, that little minivan could roll down the highway in Germany all day long at 100 mph/160 kph. And when I drove more sensibly, 75 mph, it got 30 mpg +. It was a BIG minivan, a real billboard from any direction, the Multipla. No thought at all given to wind resistance in design, only interior space. The things that went wrong with the car were probably about average in number, new alternator at 50k miles, etc. Nothing to do with the diesel.
I would leap to buy a good small Turbo Diesel car... great mileage, great reliability. And that little 1.9 made only 105 hp but it had tons of torque, I could shortshift all day and it pulled like a mule.
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Juan Esperanzo 2:02PM (5/21/2008)
I hope the U.S. does embrace Diesels. They get much better fuel economy than most hybrids, and they're a great solution for people who need a truck or SUV, and can't drive a hybrid hatchback.
The only problem with Diesels is the current price per gallon is ridiculous. It's about a $1.00 more a gallon than regular, so the savings by going to Diesel right now are minimal.
The price of diesel should go down significantly, and if it does, I see Diesels being all the rage.
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Kent Gatewood 2:15PM (5/21/2008)
Diesel fuel question: is there one formula for diesel or does each market in the U.S. have its own like gasolene?
Thanks, Kent
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Bengoshi 7:23AM (5/22/2008)
Let me tell you, our Touareg V10 TDI, with a mere 535 lbs of torque, is not too shabby cruising up hill on I-95 past everyone else. Hit the accelerator just a little and...
Price of diesel may by high, but the mileage is good. I think once the refineries are back to normal that will come down. But in the meanwhile, I still love my TDI. She's a very funky girl...
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Andrew Russell 12:59AM (5/22/2008)
While I believe in the future of diesels in the U.S., Volkswagen has a poor history when it comes to diesels. The early Rabbit diesels earned a terrible reliability reputation with cracked blocks and other major engine problems. They were built the same way GM built there diesels, by dropping a diesel head on a gas engine block - and it had the same results GM got. Piled on top of massive problems was VW's policy of doing everything they could to stiff their customers with valid waranty claims - in order to save a few bucks.
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