Elon Musk on PHEV's, battery technology and solar cells
Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria recently got some face-to-face time with Elon Musk, who, as you surely know by now, is one of the "product architects" at Tesla Motors. There were plenty of interesting quotes to come from the interview, but a few truly stood out from the rest. For instance, Musk slams plug-in hybrids pretty mercilessly while also claiming that the "a majority of all new cars produced in the United States, perhaps worldwide, will be electric. And I don't mean hybrid. I mean pure electric," within just thirty years. What's more, Musk adds that one of his other start-up companies, SolarCity, has the solution to what he refers to as the "'long tailpipe' criticism," where EV opponents point to the fact that much of the electricity in the U.S. comes from dirty sources such as coal. A small solar-panel setup of about 10 by 15 feet [is enough] to generate 200 to 400 miles a week of electricity for your car," according to Musk. We can get behind the idea of charging our own electric cars for the week with our own solar array mounted atop the roof our our garage. Maybe in thirty years that won't sound so far-fetched.
[Source: Newsweek]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Richard Stephens 11:14AM (7/16/2008)
Starting today on the "30 Years" for the development and comercialization of a new technology is not a solution, now is the time when these technologies are drastically needed so solutions needed to be presented who's development phase is nearly completed or who's comercialization time is not so far off. What is needed are technologies that are adaptable to our lives now and conforming through cost effective development into the very near future. Such emerging technologies have been supported by this writer for many years and only now has consecutive and significant breakthroughs in technology development begun to compress such development into a commercialization timeline of 1 to 5 years. Our plantet and our pocket-books only real solutions timeline falls within this "now" period, "then" is just too far for us and our children. Alternatives like solar and wind energy are somewhat limiting although very viable, however they don't fit well in your pocket, cell phone, laptop, car, or house for that matter. There remains a significant impact on global energy use when you consider the use of even every day devices when their numbers are considered, so even those small devices such as cell phones and lap tops need to be part of our energy considerations today. Solutions which do this are on the horizon and within our grasp. Of course it's taken visionaires such as Mark Goldes of Magneticpowerinc.com to have started this research in the 1970's and 1980's providing the headway needed into the "30 Years" for development. More solutions are on the way I know, but now is the time.
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Joce03 4:24PM (7/16/2008)
I think that one of the factors that will determine how quickly new tech (like EVs) become common place is whether or not we buy into it within the next 2-5 years. And, if oil prices keep increasing the way they have been, plug-in hybrids and EVs will "fly off the shelves".
The next step, in the grand scheme of things, will be improve our methods for producing electricity. Maybe THATS more of a "in the next 30 years" type of challenge.
But, the lease on my current car ends in 4 years. My next vehicle will be an EV... I hope!
Doug 11:31AM (7/16/2008)
We've been discussing this article for the past couple days at the TMC forum.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/news-articles-events/1348-fareed-zakaria-interviews-elon.html
What you guys missed was this major bit of information about Whitestar aka Model S:
"Our second model will address that rare case [of a long road trip] in two ways. One is to allow people to switch out the battery pack, so you can go to a battery-change station just like you'd go to a gas station. The second path is to have a high-speed charge. If you have a high-powered onboard charger, you can get an 80 percent charge in 45 minutes."
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Chris 11:44AM (7/16/2008)
There really wasn't any new information that we haven't heard from Elon or Tesla in other interviews. I wish he had hit more on the long tailpipe question. It's still more efficient to get the electricity from coal (a domestic resource) than gasoline cars (made from mostly foriegn oil). Also the question didn't account for the regionalism of power generation.
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Doug 11:54AM (7/16/2008)
The information (I posted above) about Whitestar having a swappable battery pack was news to me.
Chris 12:01PM (7/16/2008)
Doug - In my opinion that is a solution which is trying to solve a problem which doesn't really exist (much). The average driver doesn't need in a day more than 200 or the potential 305 mile range of the sedan. I think they would be better off not doing any extra engineering or adding any cost for that feature, at least for the easily swappable battery. The high speed charger I like, although I'm wondering what kind of amperage would be necessary. A restaurant would be spending some serious bucks to run such high amp/volt service out to parking spaces. (But in ritzy California or NY I'm sure it would be done)
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Doug 12:28PM (7/16/2008)
Chris said, "In my opinion that is a solution which is trying to solve a problem which doesn't really exist (much)."
I am in complete agreement with you. But as far as I know, this solution being offered for Whitestar is new information (i.e. news).
paulwesterberg 12:53PM (7/16/2008)
A restaurant/hotel/tourist attraction could make money on the side selling charge time at a premium electric rate. All of a sudden the parking lot is not a cost but an additional revenue source.
You would begin to see restaurants with their electric rate listed next to their daily special.
axiom 1:10PM (7/16/2008)
"The average driver doesn't need in a day more than 200 or the potential 305 mile range of the sedan. I think they would be better off not doing any extra engineering or adding any cost for that feature"
You must have some money invested in oil to miss the point of the article by that far. They were talking about using solar to provide 200-400 miles worth of electricity *in a week*, not a day. If you need to go that kind of distance in a day, thats when the swappable/high-charging batteries would come in.
"A restaurant would be spending some serious bucks to run such high amp/volt service out to parking spaces."
I imagine a partnership with electric companies would help subsidize high-amp service for places like restaurants. Its really a no-brainer as the vehicle could be almost completely charged by the time customers finish dining, making it practical and a good way for restaurants to draw in customers. Large chain stores, restaurants, & malls would probably be first, and I highly doubt it would be exclusive to only NY or CA.
"In my opinion that is a solution which is trying to solve a problem which doesn't really exist (much). "
Good thing you're dropping these turds on a car blog and not the boardroom of Elon Musk. Otherwise, I'd be worried.
rob 3:09PM (7/16/2008)
This highlights the problem with aggregating data.
"The average driver doesn't need in a day more than 200 or the potential 305 mile range of the sedan."
What about the special cause events that do occur? Yes on average I don't put more than 200 miles on in a day. But...there are those times that I HAVE to drive more than 200 miles BETWEEN charges and it happens too often:
Scenario 1: My boss alerts me to an emergency meeting in Detroit that requires me to use my personal car. It is after the rental car places have closed for the evening and I have to be driving before they open. OK, round trip the distance is 360 miles (from West Michigan). What do I do when I am come home after the meeting? Camp out in Ann Arbor for a night?
Scenario 2: I have already used 180 miles of my charge. I get home but my son's bicycle is in the way so I decide to plug it in later. I forget to plug it in. Wake up the next morning. Crap, I need 80 miles of charge today (going to the next big city for medical tests) but I don't have enough charge.
Even a 45 minute charge is not acceptable! You're running late for an appointment and out of a charge. The quick charge makes you even later.
One of the pros of the standard gas burner is the convenience....plentiful gas stations. I really only need a 6 gallon gas tank in my car, why is it 11?
I've pondered getting a Diesel but it is a bit of an inconvenience since the nearest station that has Diesel is 8 miles out of my way. I pass within a few yards of a gas station on my daily drive though.
It all comes down to the tradeoff between real costs and convenience. Ever notice how many people you see sitting in the fast food line with their vehicle idling, running the AC? Gas prices will be too high when those lines disappear.
Battery swap gets you there as long as the swapping stations are plentiful. What will gas stations do as we add electric cars to the mix? Why not become swapping stations? The infrastructure is there, there already is a delivery network to the stations (tankers, box trucks - food etc.) that can be used to move battery packs around when needed. It really doesn't take too much engineering to make the batteries swappable. A standardized plug, a standardized mount type, a standardized size (AAA battery anyone?). I had an early digital camera that required me to unscrew the battery cover to put them into the charger or to replace them. A major pain. The new one has a cover that flips out and I can drop in new ones or plug in the camera directly to recharge. Convenience, simplicity, engineering.
Think about this discussion that probably occurred more than a few decades ago....
Entrepreneur: "I'm going to build a gas station between city X and Y"?
Idealist: "Why would you do that? People could just take the train. Cars are for only around town."
Entrepreneur: "Oh, I think people will begin driving between X and Y because it's more convenient."
Who ultimately one this argument?
Chris M 4:43PM (7/16/2008)
Rob: Why would "forgetting to recharge" be any worse than "forgetting to stop at the gas station"? In both cases, it is problem caused by a lack of forsight, in both cases the solution is a fast refill - at a gas station, or a Battery Swap station, or Quick Charge station.
As for the long trip, that's what fast charge or battery swap stations is for. Just like gas stations for cars taking long trips now!
rob 9:30PM (7/16/2008)
Chris M,
You made my point really well. A pure EV with no battery swap is handicapped in the situation of forgetting a charge. It also highlights the case that the average user "might" not do more than 200 miles in a day, but could easily need to do more than 200 miles between charges.
paulstamser 12:03PM (7/16/2008)
Although Musk's "pure electric" cars are great dream for the future, for a very long time yet I think a small gas engine backup system will be needed. He is right on mark, however, when he says: "A small solar-panel setup of about 10 by 15 feet [is enough] to generate 200 to 400 miles a week of electricity for your car."
I already live in a off-grid solar electric powered house, and it would be absolutely WONDERFUL to have automobile tied into the same system so that my house battery and car battery could be tied together so I could run my house off the car battery if need be!
Of course I don't drive much, so I could afford to let my car sit for days on end and charge up. Conversely, in winter when the sun doesn't shine as much, I could start the car's gas engine & alternator and charge my house battery along with the car battery. Beautiful!
This really would be an ideal system with the solar electric input being much/most of the yearly power, and with the fossil fuel component used only when necessary. Of course, I couldn't afford one of these dream cars anyway, altho the Chevy Volt seems to fit the bill pretty close.
If I were GM, I would start making solar electric panels to go with the Volt. In fact, what's wrong with this country? Why isn't there a solar electric panel factory starting up on every corner?
Solar electric works. I've been off grid and using it since 1988. It's basically fusion power, but with the reaction taking place where it belongs: on the sun!
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Bill 12:28PM (7/16/2008)
I think he's wildly optimistic about the pace of battery development.
It's taken almost 15 years to go from a 1310 lb. lead-acid battery pack (EV-1) to a 375 lb. lithium-based battery pack (Volt) that still is only able to move a 4-passenger car 40 miles.
I can see gradual improvements, but nothing like the nearly 10% a year he mentions.
5 years from now, mass-market electric vehicles will still need to have some type of fossil-fuel powered "range extender" onboard.
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fnc 4:34PM (7/16/2008)
If you go by weight, the EV's lead acid pack was over four times as heavy as the Volt's, and a Li-ion pack that heavy would probably move the Volt considerably farther than forty miles. The Tesla's pack weighs ~1000lb (a quarter less than the EV-1's weight) and propels the two seater two hundred miles, twice the EV-1's range. A better comparison for development in the last decade might be the iMiEv (?), which has a comparable range to the EV-1 but will cost a little under 30K, and feature somewhat more utility than the EV-1 as well (I think it will carry four, though probably not very comfortably).
So I think you're short changing battery development a bit there, but I agree the cost for battery storage is still high enough that consumers will easily pick a cheaper gas car that just spreads the cost of its more expensive fuel over the lifetime of ownership. Hopefully more demand and a developing market for electric cars will spur research and economies of scale to make them more competitive as city/commuter cars. I agree though that with current tech it'll be a while before a full sized car goes hundreds of miles on a single charge.
meme 4:04PM (7/16/2008)
Bill: They're only using half of the battery pack capacity in the Volt. That's why it only goes 40 miles. They do this because PHEVs put greater stresses on their packs than pure EVs.
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Chris M 5:00PM (7/16/2008)
Actually, most hybrid and EV makers avoid full charges and excessive discharges to extend the life of their NiMH or LiIon batteries.
The Altairnano LiIon battery is more durable and can withstand deeper discharge, but is much more expensive per Kwh stored
Ultracapacitors can go from full charge to full discharge repeatedly without any damage, but the energy density is extremely limited, with a very high cost per Kwh stored.
Chris 2:15PM (7/16/2008)
Doug - I agree that one bit is news, but I have serious questions about the viability of swappable packs in 2010 when the car is released. The charger is easier but somebody has to put high powered plugs out somewhere.
Axiom - I've been a huge fanboy of Tesla for years, I think they have great leadership and a great business plan - so I'm not flaming the company. I stand by my remarks on the two solutions Elon offered.
Both solutions from what I envision, involve the development of an additional infrastructure. The high speed charger is a relatively simple add on - but it depends on having a high powered outlet to plug into, which means additional construction either at home or at the store. I agree that eventually stores could offer free or lost cost electric just like coffee shops offer wi-fi. I don't see electric service as a way to make parking lots into significant sources of revenue, because it is a service that could easily be replicated and given away by competitors. But I think predominantly shops will try to charge money for charges.
The swappable battery pack, I would say is much more involved and costly than today's gas stations. It only makes sense if you have battery swap locations at places relatively nearby to the path a person is driving, like today's gas stations. There would be a huge cost to build locations to swap packs, and I don't see how they could perform them as fast as today's fill ups. This idea really works best in a regional setting, putting the stations in major city areas.
Both of these "solutions" are interesting concepts and I think we might see both someday, a long way away. Right now, we are still very early in the product development life cycle of electric cars. I'd argue that since this problem really isn't much of one, since people don't typically need that range, Tesla's efforts and capital would be better spent on keeping the price down, the battery capacity up, and meeting the 2010 product launch for the luxury sedan. The 30k model is still even further out and has its own technology challenges.
Bill - The ABG 3 part interview with Elon talks about how the battery technology put together in the Roadster is actually about 4-5 years old. It has been tweaked and perfected over the development, but Tesla believes that there is actually better technology today, which will increase capacity. Your 15 year timeline is a bit skewed for the vehicle development time, as well as the fact that for a number of years, there was not really significant investment in improving batteries for motor vehicles. Tesla is using the technology gains made for laptop purposes afterall.
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axiom 5:26PM (7/16/2008)
"I'd argue that since this problem really isn't much of one, since people don't typically need that range, Tesla's efforts and capital would be better spent on keeping the price down, the battery capacity up, and meeting the 2010 product launch for the luxury."
If you are referring to the swappable batteries Elon didn't even hint that they would postpone the 2010 or 2012 launches. They want to ensure the vehicle is as practical or more practical than a gas powered car. The swappable batteries would do that.
"I have serious questions about the viability of swappable packs in 2010 when the car is released."
Elon mentions the swappable batteries for the 2012 sedan. Swappable battery packs would eliminate concerns about the need to replace expensive batteries after a few years. They would also eliminate concerns about having to wait at a charge station.
"The charger is easier but somebody has to put high powered plugs out somewhere."
What makes you think this is a hang up...at all. The electric company would come in and install them. The New York Power Authority just added to fast-charge plugin Subarus to its fleet, that can charge up to 80% in 15 minutes.
http://www.globalgiants.com/archives/2008/03/subaru_to_evalu.html
"Jeff Boyd of Miles Electric Vehicles: "Fast charging is here; it's available. You can put a station at a Starbucks for a cost of $125,000. There's no reason to wait [for something else]."
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/05/21/american-electric-car-companies-prefer-project-fastr-blastr-to-p/
For large businesses and franchises, thats a tiny investment to GUARANTEE customers stay in your location for up to an hour. As plugins become more popular, businesses will add them first to attract customers, then to stay competitive.
Bill 6:35PM (7/16/2008)
I didn't mention Tesla because their current battery pack is a kludge, much too labor intensive (over 6800 small cells) to be cheap enough to use in future EVs.
And swappable batteries are a fantasy, akin to dropping the engine (as there are no standardized ICEs, there won't be stanardized battery packs)
I'll believe fast charging stations at Starbuck's before swappable batteries.