Top Volkswagen researcher says no electric car explosion
While Volkswagen may be offering their first electric car as early as 2010 and are already imagining their 2028 electric offerings, the company's chief research officer, Juergen Leohold, doesn't see an explosion in the numbers of electro-mobiles on the road any time soon. In fact, by the time 2028 rolls around, he only expects them to make up only 10 per cent of that future fleet. What does he see as the big hold up? Batteries. According to the German boffin, lithium ion batteries may have already come a long way but they still lack in energy density and production capacity. Their current cost is also seen as prohibitively high. To top all that, he doesn't think it will ever top the internal combustion engine when it comes applications like long-haul trucks. Way to buzzkill, dude.
All that is not to say he is not a fan of the technology. Au contraire, mes frères. He expects VW to start off with small city cars, not unlike the Up! pictured above, but then use the electric drivetrain in larger, family size models. He says, "We have an ambition to electrify more than just the really small cars, but also our main model series, the Golf," Ah, that's more like it!
[Source: Deutsche Welle]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Stan Wellaway 9:49AM (7/20/2008)
That's an extraordinarily negative attitude from Jeurgen Leohold. Sounds a little bit like those who argued that the cellphone would never catch on because of the need to repeatedly recharge it.. and because it was then so big and bulky.
The issues he identifies are being addressed with tremendous vigour now. Battery swap stations might be seen as a way of temporarily getting round the distance issue - but may themselves become so acceptable as to not require greater battery range. And cost will surely tumble as soon as the world decides which battery is favourite and it goes into quantity production. Once the electric VW Up and an electric VW Golf become available, I can see VW widening their adoption of EVs faster than Leohold currently believes possible.
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tankd0g 11:07AM (7/20/2008)
The truth hurts, people argue that we could never make enough Hydrogen or Ethanol for all the worlds car needs, well we sure as hell can produce a lot more of than than li-ion batteries. Limited non-renewable raw materials, it's a bitch.
axiom 1:35PM (7/20/2008)
VW is only positioning themselves to be behind the curve. VW thinks they are in a good spot now because their cars get good milage and are already small....compared to other automakers. In 3-5 years the other automakers will be rolling out comparable cars IN ADDITION to much higher mileage hybrids and plugins.
With analysts expecting oil prices to be 50-100% (at least) MORE in 3 years, having cars that get slightly better millage than a couple years ago IS NOT going to cut it. The companies that roll out plugins will see large floor traffic and year-long waiting lists, in addition to gov't incentives making the vehicles more affordable. THEY will get more market share, build their image, and be driven to increase and expand plugin models based purely on market demand. Those that don't begin seriously considering plugins NOW will fall behind the same way that GM has right now.
Chris M 4:54PM (7/20/2008)
tankd0g: Lithium in rechargable batteries isn't used once and discarded, nor is it burned upon use like H2 or Ethanol. Instead, the same lithium is reused again and again over thousands of charge cycles, and is still all there for recycling if the battery fails. While lithium atoms are not as common as atoms of hydrogen, oxygen and carbon, it is still abundant enough to supply all of our automotive needs and portable electronic needs and medical needs and still have tons left over for other uses.
And of course, lithium is several thousand times more common than the platinum essential for H2 fuel cells. Yes, for platinum requiring fuel cells, limited non-renewable raw materials really are a bitch.
Stan Wellaway 9:59AM (7/20/2008)
The other thing is - technology aside - cost wil swing it. That may sound strange when the ticket price of EVs is one of the biggest problems at present. But there is far FAR greater complexity in a modern internal combustion engine and its many bolt-on requirements. This is already making combustion engined cars more expensive to build - with only the battery cost masking this. So when battery prices do tumble, combustion engined cars will become uncompetitive.
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tankd0g 11:09AM (7/20/2008)
Why do you think batteries prices will tumble when the raw material prices have increased 10 fold in the last 8 years?
axiom 1:53PM (7/20/2008)
"Why do you think batteries prices will tumble"
Apparently GM thinks the same thing. Which is why they've said they will make more Volts *AFTER* Toyota comes out with their plug-in Pruis. Flame elsewhere tr0ll.
Know-It-All 10:25AM (7/20/2008)
This is just running scared. Stan W. - you are right with the cell phone example. Already, there are EVs in production, or very near to that in just about EVERY vehicle segment. VW and all other established auto manufacturers (and big oil) better take notice of this example - with the cell phones/service plans came many new dominant companies. And many old land-line ones are gone or restructured. Take this attitude that you don't need to worry about to have no more then 10% ov EVs in your model mix and your (all big ICE players) market share WILL be 10% of the total auto market bu 2028.
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Dave 10:42AM (7/20/2008)
I think that the auto companies don't want people to wait for EV's, because if they did it would negatively impact near term gas powered auto sales. I think that's what his comments are designed to do. People hear this and think, well I can't wait that long for an EV so I'll just buy a small gas powered car.
There will be technology breakthroughs that will make current batteries cheaper and better. That's true for any electronic appliance I can think of. Also, there is disruptive technology out there that could change the competitive field completely like EESTOR for instance. There is other technology that is probably in development that has not been announced yet. I don't believe this guy at all, IMO he's full of it, however most of the American public will believe him.
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Sassha S. 10:45AM (7/20/2008)
Statements of anybody from auto-industry should be taken with a LARGE grain of salt!
First, people in any large industry are the last one to notice the world has changed.
Second this gentleman has a huge vested interest in motivating people to continue buying into old (carbon fuel powered) vehicles.
NEWSFLASH: Battery problems have been solved, herr Leohold - what needs to be solved is who is going to replace you as with this attitude you will be soon joining the que at your local Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal employment agency) ;-)
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tankd0g 11:07AM (7/20/2008)
Oh I see, so the Tesla roadster actually gets 300 miles on a charge and is $40,000. Well, glad that's solved. Peace in the middle east by Monday I suppose? Get off the crack.
Mike!!ekiM 11:09AM (7/20/2008)
Shouldn't Serial-Hybrid trucks kick diesel trucks off the market? Plus, in 2028 we should be using some kind of ultra-capacitor battery combination, and they probably won't be LI?
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Stan Wellaway 12:34PM (7/20/2008)
One of the factors omitted from most cost comparisons between gasoline cars and electric cars, is taxation.
At the London Motor Show on Tuesday next, the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, will be reiterating his aim that by 2020 all new cars on sale in the UK should be electric or electric-hybrids.
He is in a position to alter the taxation regime in a manner that helps make that happen, should he choose to. Portugal, Norway and Israel are among the other countries looking at doing just that.
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Ralph 1:33PM (7/20/2008)
This guy is just stating what he sees from an industry perspective. Although many of us would like to think of a world where EVs dominate, it isn't going to happen overnight. Alternative-to-ICE technology is improving, but its not yet at a point where the average person would say 'Wow, I'll buy one of these instead'.
I believe that in the next 10-15 years we will see a mish-mash of technologies with electric propulsion gaining in popularity as price comes down and range increases and/or readily available swap/recharge stations become prevalent.
In the mean-time small
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axiom 1:50PM (7/20/2008)
"In the mean-time small"
Like your intellectual capacity. "Small".
"Its not yet at a point where the average person would say 'Wow, I'll buy one of these instead"
Umm. Thats because they aren't for sale yet, bud. The tech is already there and you will see more than a few in 3-5 years. By the end of 2020 they WILL be dominant on the road, simply because people won't be able to afford the gas versions.
kerry beauhrt 2:44PM (7/20/2008)
The VW guy has the guts to tell the truth, at least as battery technology of the moment is concerned. I don't think he should be so confident that batteris won't drastically imporve, mostly in terms of getting cheaper - their costs are prohibitive for a BEV (battery-only) vehicle, but that by no means means that we can't eliminate virtually all gasoline for the private
sector. We can easily do si with plug-in electrics such as the 40 mile Volt, 50 Fisker, 35 mile Flexteme van, etc. He makes the same stupid mistake so many electric car shills make - he assumes that there is some big advantage in favor of BEVs in termsof gasoline avoidance or emission avoidance. It simply isn't there and can easily be proved to not be there - just get a hold of the DOT commuter statistics (commuting accounts for over half of gasoline use for private transportation vehicles) and do the math that's so simple even an environmentalist can handle it - you will find that even without any workplace recharging, a 40 mile plug-in can avoid 94% of gasoline useage and if 1/3rd recharge, can avoid over 98%.
The VW guy is also right when he points out that an awfuul lot of petroleum fuel is not burned in cars - commercial trucks aren't going to be electrified anytime soon , nor are RVs or boats or lawn mowers, not to mention the enormous amount of petroleum that is used to heat homes in New England.
I've found that rabid EV freaks are totally out of touch with reality and are trying to con the public into wasting money on "can't do" vehicles like the $38,000 Mitsubishi EV (100 miles range, $20K battery that lasts a mere 5 years) when the could be driving a plug-in that can function as their only car
and take them anywhere, at any time. Until cheap fast rechargeable batteries come along, BEVs make zero sense,
and aren't even needed to meet all of our emission/gas reduction goals. Shilling for such an oxymoronic technology
is cause for a sharp kick in the pants. It's basically fraud.
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fnc 3:55PM (7/20/2008)
"they still lack in energy density and production capacity"
Depending on the application, I think he's wrong on the first point. Batteries can create cars with more than enough useful range for a lot of peoples' automotive needs. I live on the outskirts of our city, but on ninety percent of my days I drive less than sixty miles a day, and cars will be on sale soon with that and with some cushion range to spare. I agree that batteries won't power long range freight transport for some time, but they will probably be an integral part of efficiency increasing technologies (hybrid, etc).
Production capacity for batteries is not currently a product of some technological limit in the batteries themselves. I don't know why he thinks that building more factories to meet a growing demand for batteries will take several decades.
As far as cost, what people like this guy fail to discount is the fact that gas cars are cheap but that comes at the price of requiring a fuel that is not. They give you a smaller upfront cost sure but you make up the difference by buying ever more expensive fuel for it over its lifetime and as we've learned in the past year, the cost of that fuel can be highly volatile in the upward direction. More and more people with the money in hand will catch on to this fact, and will choose to pay that upfront cost with every upward spike in the price of gas.
I'd guess there are as many people who can't see electric cars catching on today as there were last year who didn't think the cost of gas could double in a year without a major supply disruption. They see straight lines on a graph where they should realize those lines can travel in unexpected directions. By that token, it's possible that large reserves of oil could come online and pull the cost of gas back down and move electric autos back to a niche market. But I think at this point, people are going to be spooked about oil's future for long enough to make them seriously consider alternatives.
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Ralph 8:53PM (7/20/2008)
@ axiom
Your comments regarding 'intellectual capacity' are totally inappropriate and bring nothing of value or substance to a debate. However, they do show a certain level of immaturity.
The sentence was cut off: "In the mean time small, fuel efficient ICE's (3 & 4 cyclinder turbo charged gas and diesel) will become much more common place".
You are not alone in wishing for a change in the transportation sector and I fully believe that one day alternative systems will dominate the market. I just believe that it will take more time than most people want to believe. So does our VW executive here in this article.
BTW - I have spent over a year studying the currently available (as well as following new and promising) technologies. I happen to have an Aptera Type H reserved, but I am not blind to the fact that either of Aptera's models (Electric or Hybrid) would not be viewed as 'acceptable' vehicles by the majority of our population who seem to desire a 4 wheel vehicle and seating for 4 or more. In a few years more conventional EVs will become acceptable and desirable, assuming fossil fuels stay at, or increase, in price. Now think ahead as to the many, many years it will take for the current crop of millionsand millions of ICE powered cars to be retired and become a minority on our roads and you have a conservative 10-15 years IMO. That's assuming that the many industries and people dependent on the ICE engine will just 'fade away' without putting up a protracted fight.
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DJL 12:47AM (7/21/2008)
Mitsubishi says their subcompact EV will cost $37,000:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/07/14/mitsubishi-imiev-to-be-priced-around-37-000-at-launch/
Sounds to me like this VW guy is on the right track.
I agree with T. Boone Pickens. We need to stop wasting our domestically produced natural gas on electricity production and run our cars on it. We need wind, solar, nukes, etc for power generation.
Someday, battery (or capacitor) EVs or fuel cell vehicles will be viable. But its a LONG way off.
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Armand 2:05AM (7/21/2008)
Well...who gives a s**t about VW? There are so many other manufacturers who are more than happy and willing to fill their place that it's not going to be a problem.
VW's overall design, reliability, etc are heading in such a wrong direction that I'd say they know that and they don't have a chance in hell to deliver anything remotely reliable in the form of electric cars.
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