Ford says at least 5 years until mass-market plug-in vehicles
Ford has been pretty consistent in saying that it doesn't expect plug-in vehicles to reach mass-market volumes until at least 2012-13. That doesn't necessarily mean they won't have any plug-in vehicles until then. It only means that they don't expect batteries to reach a price and durability level that will allow them to be sold in large volumes until then. While companies like Mitsubishi, GM, Nissan and Toyota are all expected to have plug-in vehicles on the road by the end of this decade, all them including the Chevy Volt will b sold in comparatively small volumes. if GM hits its targets for the Volt, even that one is only expected to hit about 10,000 units in the first couple of years. Nancy Gioia, Ford's director of sustainable mobility technologies and hybrid vehicle programs told an interviewer this week that for plug-in vehicles to reach mass market penetration, the batteries have to be able to last a decade and 150,000 miles. The concern is that if the batteries only last five years and the replacement cost exceeds the residual value of the car, either manufacturers will face huge warranty losses or customers will rebel. Either way, the durability and cost of lithium batteries has to be improved in order to get profitable mass market acceptance of plug-in vehicles.
[Source: Reuters]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Sasparilla 12:11PM (8/01/2008)
Just to keep things accurate for the Volt. The numbers being thrown about (if they mean anything at this point) is 10k in the first year (really 2011), 60k in the second year (2012) and hundreds of thousands a year after that.
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axiom 1:07PM (8/01/2008)
"and hundreds of thousands a year after that."
Show me where GM said that, because if its true it would be a huge turn around from what they've been saying up to this point.
I've heard GM say the Volt will max out at 60K a year and they expect to produce plugins in tiny volume up to 2020.
Tony Belding 12:17PM (8/01/2008)
"if GM hits its targets for the Volt, even that one is only expected to hit about 10,000 units in the first couple of years"
Is that right? I was under the impression that they were planning 10,000 the first year (which would presumably be a partial year of production) and then several times that many in the second year.
If they are only shooting for 10,000 per the first two years now, that's a pretty major scale-back from what we've been led to expect up to this point.
As for battery durability, all the indications I've seen from GM are that they believe the batteries will hold up. If the management at Ford doesn't think so, one has to wonder if they are just rationalizing their lack of any competitive product in the works.
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Sam Abuelsamid 12:50PM (8/01/2008)
Durability is not the only issue. There is also cost. Both need to be brought in line in order for plug-ins to go mainstream. All indications at the moment are that GM expects durability for the volt batteries to be sufficient. Cost on the other is a whole different issue. The battery is the main reason for that $40,000 price tag that is being discussed. Even at that price, GM expects to lose money. Until they get over that hump, no one is going to make huge numbers of these vehicles.
Matt Lenart 12:18PM (8/01/2008)
ford might not be ready by 2013 because of their previous commitments to hydrogen and flexfuel, but others have already arrived (thanks tesla). battery technology was ready more than 10 years ago and is still powering a few RAV4 EV's in sunny california. after the proven success of EV-95 NiMH every auto maker suddenly decided to spend billions researching everything BUT battery technology... like cars powered by rocks and human hair.
here's hoping ford can sell more junk bonds to unsuspecting investors and bounce back from its $8.7B losses last quarter. way to be GREEN ford!
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Chris 2:52PM (8/01/2008)
Matt, please take a moment to compare how many hybrids Ford has sold compared to the other domestic manufacturers. All I see out of the others are promises, nearly useless (in small numbers) mild hybrids and big high priced two-mode SUV's. Besides, Ford is supplying a large number of hybrids every day to the NYC (and other) taxi fleets and that's much better on the whole than a bunch of ever-changing promises from GMC and the likes.
Obviously the foreign manufacturers are red hot with sales with their hybrid cars but as for domestic GREEN, I'll stick with the sales leader and the most fuel efficient SUV "on the planet".
Get ready for the Ford Fusion hybrid, it will add to Ford's GREEN advantage in the domestic market.
Peter Wang 1:00PM (8/01/2008)
As much as I want a true EV, I also don't really want to be a guinea pig, nor owner of a 5 year old pile junk fried battery with 60,000 miles on it.
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Lad 2:44PM (8/01/2008)
I don't see GM, Ford or Toyota leading the move to plug-in EVs because they haven't solved the battery distribution and distributed charging problems yet. The only company with a market for BEVs is Nissan/Renault through "Project Better Place." And their plan is to provide a charging plug everywhere there is a parking place, rent the batteries and power the charging plugs with renewable energy or direct solar power.
Project Better Place has commitments from Israel, Denmark and Portugal to complete their project in ten years.
Any plans we have to move over to BEVs and alternative power, are being blocked in the U.S. Senate by the Republicans insisting on continuing our dependence on letting the oil companies control our transportation energy market.
I encourage the Senators to not issue new leases to the oil companies until they develop the leases they already have and say "no" to the campaign funding and favors from the oil lobby.
Please remember these facts: Any leases issued now will not increase the output of oil for 5 to 10 years; And, unlike electrical power, which is a local commodity, by agreement any oil produced in the U.S. goes into the global pool of oil and is subject to all the external pressures that exist today.
There are foreign companies, right today who would love to develop our wind and solar energy at the drop of a hat, if Congress doesn't back the idea by approving assistance to the American companies, we will lose jobs to foreign nations who will build out our wind farms and solar plants and continue to remove wealth from our country. We must move off oil as soon as possible. We can no longer afford business as usual in Washington. We must change Washington from being The Capital of a Corporate State back to being a Capital for our people.
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Gene 2:59AM (8/03/2008)
Lad,
All good points. $6 per person per year would fund elections for presidential and congress. $6 x 300,000= 1.8 billion! Then the politicians would once again work for us, not big oil.