Toyota enters biofuel territory with cellulosic ethanol plan
Not many posts have been written on our little blog here that use both of the following two words: "Toyota," "ethanol." Until now, the Japanese automaker has mostly steered clear of the biofuel (with a few exceptions), unlike the domestic brands that can't seem to get enough. New reports from Reuters say that ToMoCo, along with other Japanse firms, will work to develop low-cost cellulosic ethanol. Go figure.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toray Industries Inc, Kajima Corp, Nippon Oil Corp. and Sapporo Engineering Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Sapporo Breweries, are all joining the automaker in the project, which might use plant and timber waste as a biofuel feedstock. The group's goal is to produce 1.6 million barrels a year by 2014; by 2015 they hope to drive the cost down to $70 a barrel (there are 42 gallons of fuel in a barrel, and compare here). Anyone who's been to the future should please post in the comments what the price of oil will be in 2015. Thanks.
[Source: Reuters via Domestic Fuel]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Jonathan Brashear 9:10AM (2/11/2009)
Should I post it in dollars or yuan?
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Carney 4:46PM (2/11/2009)
It depends on whether we switch to an alcohol economy by mandating that all new cars sold in America have fully flex fuel capability. That would break OPEC and permanently cap the price of oil about around $50 bbl, which is about what alcohol costs.
If we don't, the sky's the limit, or at least until the point where, as in late last year, the crushing burden becomes unbearable and the entire economy collapses. That's what happens when the price of oil rises TENFOLD from 1999 to 2008.
As for cellulosic ethanol, it's not bad in and of itself, but in context it's a distraction and creates the false impression that alcohol fuel is not ready, and is a fuel that we need to wait years down the road for.
But we don't need to wait for cellulosic.
First of all, plentiful ethanol can be created by simply expanding current operations. We're using a shade over 1% of our arable land to grow our ethanol right now, and only a fraction of our farmland is even being cultivated. Also plenty more can be obtained from overseas; Brazil produces lots of it, and many more poor countries would love to receive some of the hundreds of billions we give to OPEC.
Secondly, methanol can already, with no further research necessary, be made from any biomass without exception, including high cellulose material such as crop stems.
Ethanol has better mileage than methanol so cellulosic ethanol is a nice to have. But Toyota would be better served by just making its entire fleet of upcoming cars fully flex fueled. That's just a $100 per car expense.
If we mandated that full flex fuel capability was a standard feature like seatbelts, there would be 50 million alcohol compatible cars on the road in just 3 years, with far more overseas, and the market demand for clean cheap, non crazy funding alcohol would prompt all the cellulosic research you can stand.
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Steve-O 8:20PM (2/11/2009)
Finally, TOYOTA just do it and go flex fuel already, you're behind the times here. I'd love to look at a Corolla or Prius that runs on E85!
In addition, I would like to nominate Carney and David Blume (alcoholcanbeagas.com)for Secretary of Energy! I consider myself an ethanol proponent but can never seem to present an argument as good....
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Carney 9:35AM (2/12/2009)
Thanks, Steve-O, I appreciate it.
Cabinet officers can make a difference, as we saw with former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham wasting four years of precious time peddling the Hydrogen Hoax to America.
But ultimately the responsibility starts at the top. No Secretary of Energy or Transportation would get out front pushing for a policy change like a flex fuel mandate unless he had gotten approval from the White House, and in that case the President would most likely be the one leading the effort and using the bully pulpit.
Furthermore to make it a legal mandate, we need to have Congress pass a law first so the President can sign it.
And for that to happen, absent any presidential leadership, your congress-critters need to hear from you.
Dsuupr 10:00AM (2/12/2009)
Carney - Great response.
I have just finished a 60+ page report for the commissioners of my county about the need for a cellulosic ethanol plant and alternative gas stations. Before doing the research I was somewhat convinced of the importance of switching over, now that I have finished the report I am 110% convinced that we need to make the move much faster than we are. It would take little money to switch over to cellulosic ethanol compared to what we spend on our military to secure the oil we need and with the latest in technology, could and is super competitive with gasoline.
I know people love the idea of going electric, but when you get down to it, going 100% electric is not feasible at this time. Loggers, farmers, etc can't use a Volt or Prius and middle to low income families could never afford it.
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JD 3:10PM (2/12/2009)
The more ethanol from waste products the better. Also, lets not push aside clean diesel technology and biodiesel fuels. Until battery power is is perfected, diesel is a great choice.
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toad 4:33PM (2/12/2009)
The price of oil is likely to be high by 2015. Because of the current drop in oil prices due to lack of demand the pressure has come off to drill in the places sacred to the watermelons. The population will be larger and there will be a catch up demand for industrial production by then. Oil shale has been taken off the table again and wind power is not showing up to be the panacea everybody thought. Already the lithium for hybrid batteries is projected to be a strategic import from countries not exactly our friends. One of the problems with bio-fuels is some take too much energy to produce for the energy gained. So the idea of wood and grass waste convertion by bacteria alone really needs to be looked at IMHO.
You have sort of a chicken and egg problem with alternative fuels. Manufacturers won't convert unless they are assured that there is enough alt fuel out there to make if viable and the fuel investment guys whine about the lack of vehicles to burn it.
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DL 5:37PM (2/12/2009)
Must be tired of the kudzu.
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George 8:09PM (2/12/2009)
Glad to see that Toyota is interested in flexible fuel vehicles. However, if the motivation is credit toward CAFE compliance, expect flexible fuel Tundras and Sequoias, not Corollas.
I'd be interested in feedback from an engineer who actually designs cars listing a cost breakdown of a vehicle flexible fuel mandate. I suspect that selecting fuel system materials to survive corrosion from ethanol/water and methanol/water isn't a big stretch from what's currently required to survive E-10. I also suspect that the optical sensor to detect alcohol is 10s of dollars of added cost. For lower volume cars, engine control software development and testing may be the major cost. Armed with realistic cost information, one could write a minimum cost maximum benefit flexible fuel mandate. For example, start with a mandate for model/engine combinations with sales volume greater than 100k per year first.
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