Report: 32.7 million electric cars by 2015
Sometimes it seems like we are constantly bringing you articles and studies that might be seen as somewhat pessimistic or even skeptical of our future highways being populated by many electric cars. We were at a loss ourselves to find more than five electric cars you can purchase in the U.S. this year. However, the report that we are able to bring you news of today does not err on the conservative side. Worldwide Nanotechnology Electric Vehicle Market Shares Strategies, and Forecasts by Wintergreen Research Inc. predicts that by 2015, 32.7 million electric autos will have been shipped. Not too shabby considering they count a total of 685 battery-powered vehicles sold last year.
Unfortunately, we could only read the summary and the table of contents of the 452-page report (it's $3,400 to read the rest) but it does seem the authors have a pretty thorough knowledge of the players in the industry today and seem to base their optimism on increasing volumes of lower cost lithium ion batteries leveraging the implementation of higher performance nanotechnology-derived thin film lithium cells. They also see the electric vehicle as a way of storing energy from renewable sources and foresee the rise of package financing for cars and solar panels. Now, if you'll excuse us, our rose-colored glasses are getting misty.
[Source: Nanovip.com]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
gorr 1:16PM (3/02/2009)
I said yesterday and 2 days ago to not mix religion and business. If high financial circles that control car manufacturers, income tax, legislation, goverments, us army, madscientists, newpaper chains, police, politicians, citizens, special mafia gangs and motards, pill business, natural ressources, energy fluids and electricity said to toyota or gm managers to wait a little while before putting on production half green car it's because they still intent to find some more bums and innocent to study their blood under scientific studies conditions to discover why they are not dead yet mentally. Recently barack to keep his little jocker job started another study on the human genome like hitler did in the 1920 era before deciding to kill as many people he( they) can for all kind of reasons, especially racism(humanity).
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fnc 1:37PM (3/02/2009)
Not a chance. Barring some extreme breakthrough in some other non-battery alternative fuel source (cellulosic ethanol or hydrogen generation and storage) I think we'll see a steadily growing trickle of battery powered vehicles and more hybrids in the next few years. But thirty million? It sounds like they're just trying to get EV boosters to shell out 3500 bucks.
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mister nomer 4:50PM (3/02/2009)
Let's see...
To meet that target:
- automakers would have to sell a little more than 5 million EVs a year, worldwide, for the next 6 years.
- you got to figure that EV sales in the U.S. (largest car market in the world) would have to be at least a million a year, if not two, for the next 6 years.
Assuming they're not counting neighborhood EVs, man, I don't know if that's possible.
I mean, we'll be lucky if U.S. car sales manage to get above 12 million this year - and that's for all cars.
Hoping I'm wrong about this...
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quicc! 10:28PM (3/22/2009)
Sorry, but the US carmarket is no longer the largest in the world: in 2008, the Chinese carmarket ""took over"" with 0ver 700.000 cars sold.
If you realize China has over 1.5 billion inhabitants, it is clear why China is playing the electric card: it will be impossible to let even 1/3 drive ICE cars..
Paul 8:37PM (3/02/2009)
BRILLIANT... finally a report that realises technology massively reduces in price when consumer demand takes off.
The list of companies building li-ion EV battery factories RIGHT NOW reads like a who's who of the Auto/consumer electronic business.
When you consider 15 Mil sell in the US ALONE in a normal year and there are 800 Million cars on the roads with the entire fleet turning over every 15 years, that's over 266 Million cars that will be sold between 2010 and 2015. 32M EVs is only 8.3% market share. Sounds realistic when you consider the damand once the general public find out EVs costs 1/10th per mile to run compared to any ICE.
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Zeph 5:35PM (3/02/2009)
I think the number is conservative. China alone could probably put 100 million on the road...
I think it's time to consider those nice rooftop solar panels.
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grupa jurgena 5:24PM (4/01/2009)
Everything is possible to achieve. Indeed, it is hoped that 2015 will be as many cars, yet we continue to maintain that world production of electric cars will begin soon as the emergence of a new device is to drive these cars, but also for those trucks will be less problems, s out to reduce the dimensions of this device, persistence we say that the batteries or capacitors, magnetic motors or not to play such a role in the automotive industry as a source of propulsion and energy storage, but this is a device that is getting the media to compete and affordable energy, this is quite a different way to generate energy, which so far celebration, we know many are convinced that it is impossible to achieve this energy for a man say, so many are still in the suburbs of Paris, but there are some that we're seeing such a device in this city those who wish to change their filozofuję thinking about new sources of energy must go for us to see that this energy is already in our hands has been little to no longer achieving its advantages is the incredible power output of the device and continued working in the production of energy, the lack of a battery or the engine is the magnetic force, a simple system this device, the automobile industry today is ready for production on a global scale immediately following its receipt of application in production is months rather than years, if there will be some who leave today's systems from 2015 to genuinely global car industry is making an amazing production of these cars . It's not hope for the automotive industry for this article it is born a device that will change our lives
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Carlo 12:12AM (3/20/2010)
I share the same very positive vibe as this article. Simple reason: the world market drivers are no more America or Europe, but China and India, as both producers and consumers. With over 2 billion people, they are getting ready to build massive quantities of cheap EVs for their own balooning car markets. Furthermore, they will fuel battery research with massive fundings to help boost energy storage for their ambitious solar and wind energy plans, which will lead to much better and cheaper batteries in a short time.
The rest of the world will have to follow, those markets cannot be tamed in any way. The learning curve of EVs will be very sharp and quick, by mid 2010s EVs will have made quite a dent in the car market, ashaming all those deflated projections we still see around.
I dedicated an article on the subject after my recent visit to Geneva's Motor Show at the below page, hope it's of interest:
http://www.carboncommentary.com/2010/03/16/1452
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