VW CEO Martin Winterkorn: Electric cars 15-20 years away
Click above for a high-res gallery of the VW up!
Show season is upon us, which means there will be a ton of interesting new concept vehicles and freshly announced production models for all of us gearheads to ogle over. Another sometimes overlooked feature of auto shows like the one that's currently taking place in Geneva is the presence of top executives of major automakers who are uncommonly willing to share their thoughts. Such is the case with Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn, who told a group of reporters that electric cars are an important piece of the puzzle when it comes to the greening of our transportation industry – just not any time soon.
In the short term, VW, which recently teamed up with Toshiba to develop electric drive systems, is focused on increasing the efficiency of the tried-and-true internal combustion engine. According to Winterkorn (and others), electric vehicles won't have a majority share in the market for another 15-20 years. Perhaps it's not surprising to hear this projected timetable from Volkswagen, which is recognized as a leader in modern diesel technology.
Still, we think he's got a point. Currently, of the millions of automobiles sold worldwide each year, a minimal percentage are powered by electrons. Even after new vehicles like the Chevy Volt come online, it will take a number of years before their combined sales even begin to approach that of the gasoline or diesel engine. Whether or not it will take 20 years we don't know, but it's definitely coming.
Gallery: Volkswagen up! concept
[Source: Automotive News - sub. req'd]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
andrichrose 9:04AM (3/04/2009)
Another modern day King Canute , guess he has never heard
of BYD , I guess their stand is maybe only 500 metres or so
for where he's probably hanging out now at Geneva , maybe
he should mosey-on over there a see for himself what they
are all about and whey a certain Mr Warren Buffet has invested
so much money in their stock !
I don't think there are many people clamouring to buy VW stock
at the moment !
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Mike!!ekiM 9:15AM (3/04/2009)
The Mitzu IMev looks good. That won't take 15-20 years to get here.
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GoodCheer 9:31AM (3/04/2009)
You mean it won't take 15 MORE years to get there. I would not be surprised at all to learn that the iMiEV has been in more-or-less constant development since the early 90's, when the first round started. If VW is just starting now, they may take 15 years (though you'd think they could just license some more developed technology... but that's never really been VW's m.o.)
andrichrose 9:39AM (3/04/2009)
Saw the Miev at last years Geneva show , and the girl on the stand
told me they could have sold hundreds then and there , but we are
still waiting !
I have a VW as a second car and its getting a little bit long in the tooth
at five years old , I suppose I will have to keep it for another 15 years
or so , that is unless the chinese come up with the goods !
These guys do not get it , they would rather run a sinking ship!
oollyoumn 9:43AM (3/04/2009)
"According to Winterkorn (and others), electric vehicles won't have a majority share in the market for another 15-20 years."
I can't dispute that claim and be supported by any evidence. I hope it doesn't take that long, but majority in this case would mean very close to 50% compared to fossil fuels. If VW waits until 50% of the market is electric to jump in, they will be big losers. Any auto company that is not currently working on a total electric vehicle risks being left behind. Just like what happened to buggy whip makers, the market for variations of fossil fuel vehicles will diminish.
It appears that VW would rather be dragged than lead.
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Rich 10:08AM (3/04/2009)
I'm coming to the conclusion that if I want an electric car I'm going to have to do it myself. Convert and existing gas car - like a Honda Accord for example - to run on $15k of lithium batteries.
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Chris 11:26AM (3/04/2009)
I you guys should look at the comment a little better. 15-20 years for electric cars, to have a MAJORITY SHARE in the market, doesn't mean, they don't have electric concepts in their pockets, which will be market ready within the next few years. 15-20 years sound plausible. It will take probably another 2-5 years until some almost competitive EVs (price and performance) will be on the market. Then there could be a the problem, that many fear the early adapter problems and stick to IC-cars until the second generation EVs will come out. 15-20 years sounds realistic to me, 5-10 years would be an optimistic guess. I certainly hope EVs would hit the market like cellphones did and would reach that optimistic goal, but if a CEO stays realistic I wouldn't hold it against him. At least he seems to admit, that EVs will be important in the near future.
And it would be complete nonsense for him to say: "EVs will be hitting the market in 2 years."
Everyone who is thinking about buying a new car today might just wait those two years. While if people think it's going a last another cars lifetime, they might buy a energy efficent IC-VW this year.
Companies like BYD can make promises for the near future, since they don't have such a big market share to loose, or GM who is begging for government aid need to show that they have a plan for the future. VW, who made a big profit last year despite the crisis, is better of developing in silence in order not to ruin their business today.
I'm sure people would buy VW stocks today, since they look like one of the few companies that will have an advantage in the Crises last year they where the 3rd biggest car company and they are certainly looking better than GM. Comparing the 6.3 billion € profit last year to the 31 billion $ loss of GM. Problem with buying VW Stock, is that there are almost none on the market, since Porsche holds 50% of the stocks and has Options for another 25%. the state of Niedersachsen holds 20%. The remaining 5% on the market are way overrated.
Looks to me, that after this crisis there will be Toyota and VW as the major players in the business.
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DasBoese 2:57PM (3/04/2009)
VW was not the "3rd biggest car company" by a long shot, their stocks soared last year because they were artificially inflated by speculative trading following Porsche's relentless efforts at gaining control of the company.
That they didn't do as badly as GM (or Chrysler, or Ford) isn't surprising because the crisis hit the US, GM's biggest market first and hardest, while there wasn't a serious impact on Germany, VW's biggest market, until late in the year. Right now they're burning cash like everyone else, including Toyota.
And you know, I seriously doubt VW will be a major player after this crisis, hell, they haven't even acknowledged that there IS a crisis, let alone taken measures to mitigate its impact! They've only now started to invest in serious EV and hybrid technology, and nowhere near as massively as other companies. Even their regular "green" models have seen serious development only after it was clear that the government wasn't able to stop the upcoming EU regulations on fleet-average CO2 limits, the same thing happened a few years earlier with diesel particulate filters.
Jim Vandegriff 12:00PM (3/04/2009)
I agree with Chris about the Majority Share comments. Hybrids are only selling a few percent of the market in the US even 9 years after their introduction, and it certainly seems quite possible that plug-in vehicles will take time to permeate the market. One of the reasons I'm in line for an all electric Aptera is to help push the market as quickly as possible toward lower emissions. I personally think that the plug-ins will sell well once they reach the market in decent numbers.
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richard in FLa 2:38PM (3/04/2009)
The reason that hybrids haven't hit a higher market share is that there aren't too many models available. I don't like the looks of the prius nor the Honda. I would buy the Civic, but the model that comes hybrid is ugly. Then there's a sea of non hybrids at better pricing. It's the same thing with electric vehicles. The nice ones cost 100k, the one's you can afford go too slow, and the new ones are ugly. You can't compare apple to oranges. The Aptera is nice but not yet available.
The fact stands that there still isn't market penetration for desirable cars. Period
Toni 12:08PM (3/04/2009)
Do not worry Martin, if you have no full electrics to offer to the masses in 2 years, others will do. I hope at least you will offer electrics with small efficient diesel range extender that will allow me to visit the petrol station only once every 3 months.
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Scatter 12:26PM (3/04/2009)
Sounds about right and it's encouraging to hear. It's taken about 10 years for diesels to get close to 50% market share in the UK.
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DasBoese 2:04PM (3/04/2009)
Well, this is a bit different from the article at AB, where they cited him making the stupidly ambiguous statement that "daily use of BEVs is still far away" or something to that effect, can't be bothered to look it up.
This statement makes a bit more sense, though it's still retarded in a way because while EVs will take time to gain big shares in the market as a whole, they will probably dominate certain segments -small commuter cars in particular- very quickly, which coincidentally is an important market in Europe that VW can ill afford to lose.
And perhaps someone should remind Martin how his company's diesel sales dropped massively when the price of diesel fuel soared last year, and that only the recession is keeping them down right now.
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Eletruk 12:37PM (3/06/2009)
All it will take is another hike in gas prices to $4 a gallon, only this time people will have a alternative to ICE cars. In 2-3 years you will actually be able to go to a car dealer and see an EV in the showroom, and be able to buy it. Then we'll see how ling it will take to adopt.
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Dan 11:04AM (3/05/2009)
This guy is an IDIOT!! Another reason not to like VW added to my long list.
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dm789 1:46AM (3/07/2009)
If the VW CEO think like that then he gonna be the next Bob Lutz and in the end VW ended up like GM. If VW react slowly to the growing trend, VW WILL lose in the future, Just look at other companies they doesn't stop trying even though people think its stupid to invest in anything else. Same like how Toyota from a non green company suddenly everyone think Toyota is a green company and not Honda who all their life try hard to make a good green cars. Honda didn't take the risk of making a practical hybrid and Toyota beat Honda with Prius.
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dm789 1:59AM (3/07/2009)
Sorry its not Bob but its Rick the guy who been in GM and doesn't make any profit at all.
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