Should machinists be worried that electric cars will cost them their jobs?
One of the reasons electric vehicles are so efficient has to do with their lack of complexity. Electric motors have very few moving parts and often don't require the complicated transmissions and driveline components that are common for internal combustion engines.
According to the Nikkei in Japan, "The rise of electric vehicles will spell more than the demise of just the internal combustion engine. Transmissions and braking systems will likely be replaced by electric control motors as well. A gasoline-powered car consists of roughly 30,000 parts, half of them related to the engine. Electric vehicles are expected to require one-tenth of that."
While those are all good things for purchasers of EVs, the thousand of individuals that make their livings devising and repairing the inner-workings of the automobile are reportedly worried about their job prospects. Of course, electric vehicles present their own set of technologies and components and won't wholly replace the internal combustion engine overnight, so there's no real need to be concerned with a reduction in jobs. The last time we brought this subject up was a year ago and you can still find a lot of good comments in that discussion thread.
[Source: Nikkei via TTAC]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Tim 6:57PM (3/16/2009)
What happened to the blacksmiths, buggy whip manufacturers, coachmen etc.? I guess they all starved to death, right? NO, they found other jobs.
Reply
Mike Z 7:09PM (3/16/2009)
I say for the most part no.
Think of all the standard maintenance: tires, shocks, alignment, bearings.
None of those go away.
Reply
Rain 7:26PM (3/16/2009)
The electrics are going to be way more expensive at first but as they become more mainstream and parts manufacturers increase the volume and labor costs reduced then prices will fall synergistically.
Because the car takes 20-30% fewer parts then they will become that much cheaper than conventional cars and raise demand farther.
On the economic side 440 billion peak oil dollars will stay in the US alone instead of into the sands of terrorist countries,creating goods and services domestically.
Instead of losing that money forever,it will go back into the economy creating jobs.
Ask Yourself,how much better off would I be if I didn't have to buy gasoline?
The electric high speed train is another way to reduce dependency and the environmental impact,flying now,is such a bother especially post 9/11 that some people are taking trains again on short commuter hops.
There are several absurd things that I have heard from those people,including taking the train is faster.
When I first heard that I said,Bullpuckey!
But.........
You have to go to the airport several hours early and go through the various checks
and searches then the delays and go to the plane and sit there some more while they finally get it together and finally,blessedly,take off,by this time on the train,you are already halfway there.
and........
People are more relaxed and friendly(mostly a good thing)and it saves money.
What I am talking about is conventional passenger rail service,not some day,today.
Imagine racing across the country side at over 150 MPH on clean,renewable,efficient,economical electric power.
Yeah!
Reply
leo 8:46PM (3/16/2009)
...imagine? if such densely populated countries like france and germany (where i live) can build high speed train networks (at least 250 km/h, many 300 km/h) why can't the US do it too????? i can tell you, there is no greater satifaction than wizzing by parallel to the autobahn in the ICE train, at some 100 km faster than some fat german executives in their E-klassen....forget check ins, security checks and post 9/11 paranoia at the airports...go electric (train).. ;) !
paulwesterberg 1:05PM (3/17/2009)
I agree, efficient electric high speed train is a great way to travel.
In Europe you can pack a picnic lunch with bread cheese chocolate and a bottle of wine.
win39 7:34PM (3/16/2009)
So far the best of the electric cars, and almost all of them are just prototypes, are suitable only as short haul commuter vehicles. Until range and electric "refueling" problems are solved and real production begins, engines for hybrids, for charging batteries in future fantasies like the Volt, or for diesels are not going away soon.
Reply
polo 10:22PM (3/16/2009)
"Technically" you're right, since the numerous electric models being announced won't be available for a year or two.
However, in 3 years, however you will be flat out wrong. In 5+ years, you'll sound like those people who wondered why anyone would ever need more than 528K of memory.
win39 11:49AM (3/17/2009)
Unlike one of those guys still waiting for their long predicted personal helicopter to commute to work? It is OK to be a fan boy, but some substance to justify it would be nice. Here are a couple of points. A five minute electric "refill" is nowhere on the horizon that I have seen. No new battery chemistry, capacitors maybe with lots of development, and battery switch out just seems impossible. Until quick "refill" happens electric cars will just be additional toys for the well off. Most people don't buy an expensive, special vehicle to drive to the supermarket or the nearby job. If someone solves the problem with electrical energy storage and transfer in another five years or so, it will take at least 20 years for it to become significant in the market place. So current machinists need not worry much. After years of development hybrids went into production in the year 2000. Eight years later even these immensely practical cars represent only 2.35 percent of new car sales according to the Green Car Congress.
-M.Dub 4:43PM (3/17/2009)
For the most part you are right win39, but I think we are seeing more affordable 2 wheel electric transportation become more and more common these days. Did you know Wal-Mart sells 3-4 different electric bicycles from their website? This technology works pretty well for my electric bike, my butt is sore way before my batteries are dead. It wont be too long before useful cars are battery powered as well.
Lukas 7:47PM (3/16/2009)
As electric cars get more complex -- perhaps there might be argument for multiple motors working in various combinations -- heck, maybe even one diving each wheel, giving even more meaning to AWD. Each of those motors need some sort of machining for precise fit, right?
As far as other components such as brakes and such -- I don't see anyone doing away with tried and true braking system, especially in the face of safety issues. Lets say you have an electrical failure -- your car got zapped by lightning -- What? Brakes just stop working, because motor control is gone? You gotta have some sort of backup system just in case of emergency.
The job won't be eliminated, but simply transferred to other components.
Reply
Herm 6:38AM (3/17/2009)
There is very little machining involved in making electric motors, a fraction of what it takes to machine an engine or transmission.. and very low tolerances are required. The only weird thing about motor is winding the coils and that is also automated (but hand winding/packing is often best). Most motors will be manufactured in low cost countries, lots of hand labor involved.
You still will need mechanical brakes for parking on a hill etc, but they can be made to last the life of the car. Priuses are well know to have long brake life, a benefit of regenerative braking.
http://jamesmirick.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/brake-life-the-hidden-truth-about-hybrid-cars/
Alignments will still have to be done the old fashioned way, but how often is that needed?.. Bearing lubrication is another maintenance that will not go away, neither will be windshield wiper replacements :)
The bodies will still be made the old fashioned way, stamped out of steel sheet by massive hydraulic presses, and the pieces welded together by robots. Composites will remain exclusively for high performance cars (and premium cost). There is work going towards lowering the manufacturing cost of composites, but you will see stamped aluminum bodies way before you see composites.
The truth is that electric vehicles will massively change our society, no longer will you see a gas station on each corner and manufacturing of the subcomponents will be done overseas, like the electronic industry today. Electric vehicles will be far simpler to manufacture and maintain. Parts count will be far lower also.
paul34 7:51PM (3/16/2009)
Life will go on. There will be other jobs, but at the end, will lots of people and businesses go under? Sure. But that's the way the world works.
But then again, I guess the theme these days is to throw money at things to attempt to stop the inevitable and natural cycles of a system that was overextended and needed to correct, anyway.
Reply
crackchihuahua 7:54PM (3/16/2009)
They should not be worried simply because there will always be uses for a machinist. They will just get another job.
@ Lukas: actually electric cars are much less complicated to a standard engine. The complication comes when the two are intermixed into hybrids. But a standard electric vehicle is actually not complicated, one motor, one motor controller, and a lot of batteries hooked to the drive shaft.
Reply
fnc 8:15PM (3/16/2009)
Re the blacksmith example, how much more labor is required to keep a fleet of automobiles on the road than the horses and buggies that once served as transportation?
There was a time when it was thought computers would replace a lot of labor and what do we have today? Millions of people in IT departments everywhere keeping those very computers in working order.
Technology doesn't make old jobs obsolete without creating a new ones in their place (or maybe several).
Reply
Korben 8:40PM (3/16/2009)
Finally, Retribution!
I've known my share of good an bad mechanics, but with less parts to have to consider when looking into that space between the bumper and the cab of the vehicle, it won't be nearly so mysterious. If this forces mechanics to be slightly more educated before they approach an ailing vehicle, then we've all got something to benefit from conversion to Electric.
But we will never completely lose the Internal Combustion Engine, even if it becomes illegal to operate one by 2053.
Reply
jpm 10:14PM (3/16/2009)
the article was referring to machinist, not mechanics. Although I must say, I would have no problem seeing some mechanics lose their jobs. Throughout my long list of car repairs, I feel like I've been overcharged for crappy service on average. My very last car repair the guy re-attached a wire to make the service light go away b/c the the last guy didn't attach it after a clutch replacement -- he charged my $60 something for labor -- all 5 minutes of it.
Next car I buy will be electric. No more dirty, smelling, noisy ICE engines for me. Can't wait to see the simplicity of an EV!
Herm 1:30AM (3/17/2009)
The computer can monitor the health of the motor, batteries and control electronics.. and most likely parts will be simply replaced.
Very little need for mechanics.
Reply
Imee 6:18AM (3/17/2009)
I don't think it's the end of the line for car machinists... I mean sure there's electric cars right now but there's still plenty of cars out there running on standard engines. Besides, electric cars can be a skill to acquire if they want to, so I don't think machinists have anything to worry about.
Imee
http://www.cashgrants.org
Reply
Paul 6:38AM (3/17/2009)
Those writers at the Nikkei are tuned in.
What they're describing are EVs with wheel motors. No need to waste energy in a mechanical transmission, no need to waste energy in frcition brakes. As for safetly, I'd rather have a 40Mhz processor in each wheel automatically compensating for avaliable traction in both drive and brake modes than a dumb system converting inertia into hot brake pads. Unlike todays ABS which is a 'dumb' system that doesn't adjust brake pressure until the driver either lifts off the brake or stops, wheel motors can easily adjust to traction at each wheel in millieconds. Vehicle dynamics will become a software function. A wheel motor brake system will make current ABS look like a joke, so don't buy shares in Bosch unless they turn up with a wheel motor system, SOON!
Fewer mechanical components = lower cost. And who above said electronics are expensive? what does a PC cost these days?
Reply
Paul 7:23AM (3/17/2009)
Opps, you can't buy shares in Bosch, they're a private company.
Reply