VW's Stefan Jacoby doubts mainstream affordability of EVs in the next decade
It sounds like executives from the Volkswagen Group are speaking with one voice on the subject of plug in vehicles. While both Volkswagen and its premium brand Audi are working on various combinations of hybrid, plug-in and even fuel cell technology, it doesn't necessarily follow that these technologies will be readily available anytime soon. VW of America CEO Stefan Jacoby spoke to a group of media in Seattle last week where he told the gathering that its unlikely that plug-in vehicles will go mainstream within the next decade. The issue as it is today is affordability. The problems remain mass, capacity and cost of batteries. Right now you can have any two. Jacoby expects plug-in vehicles to become more common, but until the costs come down while still meeting customer performance expectations, the masses won't be adopting.
In the near term, VW plans to focus on optimizing existing gas and diesel powertrains by expanding availability of direct injection, downsizing and turbocharging. Automatic start-stop capability will also help, along with weight reduction to achieve the goal of halving fuel consumption over the next ten years.
[Source: The Car Connection]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Mark 8:21AM (5/18/2009)
Idiot
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Dave 11:09AM (5/18/2009)
I think VW is a worthless company with unreliable products. And the paltry number of diesel sales they make in the USA is more for halo effect than anything, IMHO.
However, they are right. General adoption of EVs doesn't make financial sense. Or environmental sense. Or geopolitical sense. And probably won't for at least ten years.
I live in the Northeast. My house takes 1000+ gallons of oil per year for heat and hot water.
Plus a bunch of electricity that is probably produced primarily with natural gas.
Both cars in my household together require 800 gallons of gasoline. Neither is a hybrid.
I cannot justify spending $40,000 on an EV which will have a pathetic range when the heat or A/C is on and whose environmental benefits are dubious considering the sources of electricity in the USA.
Like most people, I could reduce my carbon footprint and oil dependency far more for a much smaller expenditure.
polo 5:19PM (5/18/2009)
Dave, what EV's do you know of that are going to be $40K? Most of the automakers coming out with EVs haven't even announce price-points, but are expected to sell in the mid-30s BEFORE the tax credit.
EVs also make alot of environmental sense (less carbon output than ICEs even with power production output factored in), alot of geopolitical sense (reduced dependency on foreign oil), and most definitely alot of financial sense (dramatic reduction in cost of ownership, including maintenance, gas, and very low depreciation). In 10 years time mass battery-production will reduce its cost significantly, and should bring the production of EV cars BELOW that of their ICE equivalents, due mainly to significantly less parts in EV autos.
We are in a statistical Depression and gas is hovering around $50 a barrel. It is blatantly obvious that gas will be well over a $100 a barrel, and pushing $4+ a gallon when GDP turns positive again. If you need 1600gallons driving capacity at all times then you are clearly one of those fringe cases and do not reflect the driving needs of the general public (the vast majority travel 40miles round-trip daily). I hope your paycheck will be able to afford it in a couple years. The rest of America will be placing backorders on smaller, more efficient cars, and EVs will be in very high demand. I can absolutely guarantee that every EV put on the lots in the next couple years will sell out, and depending on gas prices may go for more than their sticker price.
jpm 1:49PM (5/18/2009)
Dave, your money is better spent on insulating your house.
John Rees 8:24AM (5/18/2009)
My concern is about VW support. View my VW experience at: http://reesphotos.com/VW/
John Rees
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Tohe 8:29AM (5/18/2009)
No one ever expected the auto industry to embrace a cleaner more efficient technology out of the kindness of their hearts. We've heard these words before, they are aimed at Washington and they intend to discourage radical change. What the auto industry doesn't get is that the ground beneath them is shifted and now they are forced to have a conversation they would rather ignore. The very fact that we are having this conversation, says to me a lot more than his own words.
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jpm100 8:32AM (5/18/2009)
I would say the investment by some autocompanies makes this a VW position and not an industry position.
jharlan 8:35AM (5/18/2009)
This is a red herring. I suspect they have a fairly secretive crash course of EV development just like everyone else. They have a history of tech breakthrough. To be without EVs in an auto makers arsenal could be fatal. I give VW more credit than that.
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Kumar 10:24AM (5/18/2009)
Yes and no on the red herring. They do have the twin-drive in development, designed to run about 30-40 miles on a charge, with a diesel engine to take over for longer trips...ie road trips.
It makes sense if you think of the success of EVs depending on the driving habits of the buyers. Most people bought into SUVs because they *could* drive offroad, not that they ever did.
The same thinking will apply to EVs versus hybrids. People will favor the car with the longer range *just in case* they want to get away for the weekend.
No doubt VW will have EV versions of it's cars, but the twin-drive/ volt type cars may be around for a while.
harlanx6 11:35AM (5/18/2009)
I agree Kumar, but I doubt they are sparing any effort on their EV R&D. VW is "marketing" in other words positioning themselves in the best possible light for the near future, which is exactly what we should expect. I have heard this "EVs are a long way off" speech from them before, but I don't believe it. That's why I said it's a red herring. EVs are the best urban solution.
In the meantime I am very interested in their diesel hybrids, which is a better choice for most of us out in the wild west.
Mark 8:36AM (5/18/2009)
Here in Europe we are working towards a 104g/km CO2 level for cars. To achieve this you need to reduce the size of the diesel engine (reduce performance) or go hybrid which will keep the performance and reduce the foot print. VW and Audi seem to think that just putting in smaller engines will do it, but people who want performance (I couldn't care less) will avoid 1l SUVs.
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Stan Wellaway 9:42AM (5/18/2009)
Was Mr Jacoby among those who argued that cellphones would not quickly (if ever) become mainstream, because of the cumbersome batteries, the cost, and the need to routinely recharge them?
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Tim 8:46AM (5/18/2009)
Battery costs do have to go down a very long way and there are a LOT of charging stations to be installed before the MASSES accept EVs.
Will that take 10 years or more depends on the price of gas at the pump, the availability of consumer credit, the unsold stock of relatively cheap ICE cars and the availability of EVs at a price that is competitive to ICE cars.
10 years is NOT a long time when you look at the big picture. Hell, most manufacturers take 3-4 years just to come out with a new model of car.
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rob 9:39AM (5/18/2009)
Tim,
You have very good points that a lot of people here miss. Car companies are in it to make money. They do research. They understand what a majority of the public wants and try to maximize their profit. When the EV equation says that is where the money is, they'll be there.
Last week I had to buy a new car. So I stopped into a Toyota dealer (in western Michigan) and got a nice Corolla. When I first stepped onto the lot I was looking at a Tundra (I did some work on this in my former professional life). The sales guy told me to "Stop looking. We have a pretty good waiting list for them." Turns out that since about January or so, they saw a complete shift away from cars and back to trucks and SUVs. So where's the money at right now?
Toyota was incredibly smart to dabble into the technology when there wasn't much of a market just to work out the kinks. But considering that the market is something like 13 million cars a year and hybrids account for only a small part (wasn't the Prius sales about 160,000 for 2008 and the Ford F series trucks were more than 3 times higher?). I suspect that a most "typical" car buyers would treat an EV as inferior to a hybrid.
Tim 9:50AM (5/18/2009)
The recession will make gas more plentiful due to less driving, but the US Dollar will soon begin it's hyperinflation cycle due to the Fed's printing habit and Congressional spending spree.
What does this mean for future gas prices? Look to the last 3 months and expect that trend to continue and accelerate. Personally, I expect gas to reach $4.50 in the US by Christmas and stay there or perhaps go a little higher.
The future of EVs (and any consumer goods) in the US is uncertain. Specially if they (or their components) are imported where the dollar exchange is a factor.
why not the LS2LS7? 12:32PM (5/18/2009)
rob:
You can come out here to California to get a Tundra. There's no waiting lists here. Also, dealers in your area (I entered 48103 zip) are giving $2500 cash back on Tundras right now. Kinda weird if they had waiting lists, huh?
You may want to be more careful about believing what car salesmen tell you.
rob 8:57AM (5/20/2009)
LS2LS7,
I wholeheartedly agree with you about those salesmen! Perhaps the incentives are working? I just checked the dealer inventory and they only have 1 Tundra on the lot (they are the largest dealer in the area) and its a standard cab in white - this was the one inside the showroom. I checked the other guys and I see one dealer has no Tundras and I have to go about 25 miles away to find one that has 2 on the lot. Perhaps a regional thing right now?
Zeph 8:51AM (5/18/2009)
Hardly surprising that one of the mainstream automakers furthest behind in the development of the electric car is the one trying to talk it down.
Electric cars are viable now, but a lot of people stand to lose their jobs if they become mainstream in short notice.
Worthy sacrifice imo.
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Sasha NL 12:15PM (5/18/2009)
I suggest we DON'T do any bailout of WV here in Europe. Mr. Jacoby and the rest of the muppets from HQ should really experience the joys of unemployment.
Companies that do not have plan B (regardless is that plan is enviromentaly sound - read: EVs or not) are plainly stupid.
Just to remind them: Car companies are here to make cars that WE (the consumers) want. If we say: jump - their only answer should be: how high?
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Throwback 2:38PM (5/18/2009)
The problem is not enough people saying jump. (on the EV band wagon)
The average car buyer is looking for a good deal. If an EV can provide that, they will buy it.