Toyota questions demand for plug-ins, cost, range, durability concerns
We all know that there is a hardcore group of you out there chanting the mantra of "No plug, no sale!" Okay, well, at least a few of you. The problem is that, like commenters on the internet, the loud fringe makes most of the noise, but actually represents a very small percentage of the total population. For the rest of the car buying public, the realities of choosing a new car go well beyond the ability to "refuel" from a plug in the garage. This is the reality that Toyota, GM, Nissan, Mitsubishi and others have to face in planning for future electric vehicles.
How many people are actually willing to pay the price in purchase cost, range, and utility for a plug-in vehicle?
While Nissan and Mitsubishi are (publicly at least) very bullish on EVs, Toyota apparently remains more skeptical. Bill Reinert, Toyota's U.S. national manager for advanced technology, told a National Academy of Sciences panel in Washington that the company doesn't expect PHEV demand to top 50,000 units a year, and the total could be as low as 3,500. So far, in most real-world testing, PHEVs are showing relatively little benefit to justify the significant extra battery cost. Unless plug-ins are designed as such and able to operate through most of their range on electric power (unlike conversion PHEVs), the real world benefits may only be visible to dedicated hyper-milers.
Gallery: EVS23: PHEV Prius prototype
[Source: Bloomberg]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Derk McRockgroin 8:17PM (5/19/2009)
Toyota has battery durability concerns? NiMH is very durable. There are hundreds of RAV4-EVs still running to this day, and the Prius' battery has proven itself to be very reliable.
Reply
polo 10:06PM (5/19/2009)
Toyota is having "doubts" because of their heavy investment in lead-acid batteries (what the current Prius uses). They stand to lose on their of their deep investments in lead-acid batteries if they switch to Li-on powered batteries (required for plug-ins). For similar reasons VW has consistently talked down EVs, mainly due to their own personal deep investment in diesel tech....though I hear even VW is now giving in and releasing an EV.
Toyota will give in. Look at how closely they've guard their Prius/hybrid-leader brand against the Honda Insight. With so many automakers releasing plug-ins, Toyota knows its inevitable that one will try to release a plug-in as a Prius-killer (with comparable looks, cost, features, etc). I strongly doubt they'll leave themselves open like that. If they do, we'll see a plug-in Prius killer in the next 5 years, guaranteed.
Sam Abuelsamid 10:40PM (5/19/2009)
Toyota uses nickel metal hydride batteries in its hybrids, not lead acid. No one uses lead acid batteries in hybrids.
Patrick 1:53PM (5/20/2009)
Key point: Keep in mind that you can't compare hybrid batteries to batteries that would provide primary propulsion. Each takes a totally different kind of battery because of the different way the batteries are used.
Bottom line: You can't compare hybrid battery performance to BEV battery performance. It's apples and oranges.
Derk McRockgroin 6:01PM (5/20/2009)
Patrick, I *can* compare Toyota's Hybrid batteries with the ones used in the Rav4 EV. It doesn't take "a totally different kind of battery." (Sure, one pack is much larger than the other and can plug-in) They still use a similar operational principle and the same chemistry.
The "Operational principle" I'm mentioning is called "floating the battery". It's when the battery pack is not completely charged nor completely discharged. The Prius' battery remains between-um-80 to 40 percent. I'm not sure what the percentage is with the Rav4EV, but they are still driving nicely to this day.
My point is the performance in longevity. The Prius and the Rav4EV are different cars...but their batteries just keep on running.
smartone 8:21PM (5/19/2009)
Gee Toyota is bad mouthing everything the Volt is going to do. What a shocker there!
On the internet this is known as a concerned troll!
Reply
downtoearth 8:33PM (5/19/2009)
Do all good things have to go into the wrong direction from the very start?
1. First generation of plug-in hybrids does not even have to offer any particularly long all electric range. What is crucial is intensive assist coming from an electric motor to shave fuel consumption of the internal combustion engine. On ordinary daily trips you could use HALF the fuel. That's the benefit! Why there's no huge banner on this car shouting this true statement?? "Go plug-in. Save half the gas"
2. Why there are no long term total costs of ownership calculations supplied with every picture of every plug-in hybrid? All what people get is the message mumbling: price PREMIUM. It will pay itself in much lower refueling costs quickly! Microsoft knew how to use a true total cost of ownership value when advertising their pricey products against free of charge Open Source software. Why plug-in manufacturers can't do this?
3. Why there are no commercials showing in a TRUE and concise, visual way that the mankind is running on energy credit given by the Earth? That we're burning through fossil fuels leaving nothing for future generation. That plug-ins can be deployed in countries having majority of electricity generation coming from hydro power plants or thermal ones burning biomass. That ICEs have pathetic thermal efficiency of 30-40% while electric motors have 90%.
People are in majority completely unaware of these issues, living on a day by day/business as usual basis. A true, sharp and precise message needs to be broadcast to make them aware what plug-in hybrids are and why we need them.
If this is not done, then worry no longer, a pack of liars lead by Jeremy Clarkson will start their job. You'll hear again that global warming is a myth used to raise taxes (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Glacier_Gallery ), that Canada will supply all the oil the world needs from its tar sands, that we need more CO2 cause plants have to breathe, that hybrids only work in town (ever heard about engine power downsizing?), that Prius does more damage to the environment than a Range Rover because it has a 120 lbs battery in the back (it saves 10.000 litres of crude oil over 310.000 miles of battery lifetime when compared just with the Jetta TDI but Clarkson knows better), that hybrids are extremely complex despite them being ruthlessly simple.
And these will be the people that majority of conspiracy theory hungry individual will follow and listen to.
Reply
NeilBlanchard 9:30PM (5/19/2009)
Hi,
I think that ICE efficiency is in the 10-20% range? The new cam-driven engine (as opposed to crank-driven) is 39.5% efficient -- which is a revelation for an ICE!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Combustion_Engine
http://www.revetec.com/
Sincerely, Neil
Sam Abuelsamid 10:37PM (5/19/2009)
Perhaps the best independent source of TCO data on plug-in hybrids is Google.org with its RechargeIT project.
http://www.google.org/recharge/experiment/dpm.html
According to Googles test results the total energy cost (gas + electricity) for a standard Prius is $9.34 per hundred miles. The PHEV Prius costs $6.90 per hundred miles. Over 100,000 miles that's $2,440 in savings. The PHEV conversion costs $10,000 so you would have to drive over 400,000 miles to get a net savings in total cost of ownership. For the Escape PHEV, the payback takes 358,000 miles.
Even if you cut the cost of the plug-in battery in half, the payback is still on the order of 200,000 miles, so a conversion type PHEV simply doesn't make sense from an economic perspective.
someEEguy 1:11AM (5/20/2009)
PHEV's like Priuses converted to plug-ins have electric motors that are too small to effectively use their newly installed batteries, as they are of limited to no use at higher speeds both with respect to drive and regenerative braking. Plug-ins need both batteries and electric motors powerful enough to drive and regeneratively brake the vehicle at all normal speeds of operation, in order for either to be used effectively... this is why vehicles like the Volt or Tesla Model S are better propositions as far as plug-ins go.
someEEguy 3:36AM (5/20/2009)
Just to be more concise, that Google study say's more about the Prius architecture as a plug-in then it does about plug-ins as a whole. The current Prius architecture becomes a major bottleneck when converted to a plug-in (unless the owner often stays under ~20 mph) for the reason I mentioned earlier.
meme 12:38PM (5/20/2009)
Neil: Gasoline cars average about 20% tank to wheel efficiency (and about 16% well-to-wheel efficiency), but they have a *peak* tank-to-torque efficiency usually around 35%. 39.5% peak is good, but it's not some huge improvement.
jake 8:43PM (5/19/2009)
Bill Reinert is Toyota's long term critic of plug-ins. It's not the first time he came out skeptical of plug-ins, so I'm not surprised.
As long as the Ford EV makes it to market I don't really mind the noise.
Reply
Sam 8:45PM (5/19/2009)
Bring the Plug-ins, I can't wait for my cost of energy to go from $0.5 Kwh to $0.20 or $0.30 Cents per KWH. If anyone thinks we're going to get away scott free with ev's they've got a serious reality check comming.
There are people out there struggling to pay the electricity bills as it is now, imagine doubling or tripling that. Anyone remember 2003? the great blackout? Well, even today during peak summer hours energy companies are crying on a daily basis for people to turn down their a/c and conserve energy to prevent another blackout on the same scale from occuring. Now, imagine several millions cars plugged into that grid?
Get your bicycles ready.
Reply
Chris M 9:22PM (5/19/2009)
Sam, did you realize that electricity rates are set by the local Public Utility Commissions? Yep, any rate increase has to be approved by the government, and the utility has to provide justification for that rate increase. They can't just jack up the rates because they wan to.
But, ironically, even if rates did go up to your hypothetical 30 cents a Kwh, it would still be cheaper to "drive electric" than to drive a gasser - and gasoline prices are rising almost daily once again...
Sam 9:28PM (5/19/2009)
Oh they'll have justification, they "need" to upgrade all the grids and build more power plants or we'll all be in the dark. There's their justification.
polo 10:05PM (5/19/2009)
"Oh they'll have justification, they "need" to upgrade all the grids and build more power plants or we'll all be in the dark. There's their justification."
Wrong. Please research before making ignorant claims.
According to the DOE:
"If all the cars and light trucks in the nation switched from oil to electrons, idle capacity in the existing electric power system could generate most of the electricity consumed by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. A new study for the Department of Energy finds that "off-peak" electricity production and transmission capacity could fuel 84 percent of the country's 220 million vehicles if they were plug-in hybrid electrics.
Researchers at DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory also evaluated the impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, on foreign oil imports, the environment, electric utilities and the consumer.
"This is the first review of what the impacts would be of very high market penetrations of PHEVs," said Eric Lightner, of DOE's Office of Electric Delivery and Energy Reliability. "It's important to have this baseline knowledge as consumers are looking for more efficient vehicles, automakers are evaluating the market for PHEVs and battery manufacturers are working to improve battery life and performance."
http://newswire.ascribe.org/cgi-bin/behold.pl?ascribeid=20061211.105149&time=11%2005%20PST&year=2006&public=0
Sam 4:05AM (5/20/2009)
The problem isn't necessarily supply it is the deregulation, and privatization of the Grids. Blackouts in recent years have become more common in private sectors as private companies minimize supply to increase profits. Storing power costs more than 100 dollars US per kwh.
As the Ontario Electricity Coalition pointed out, Ontario Premier Ernie Eves was wrong when he stated that the recent blackout was a “very unusual event”. (32) So too was the Chief Executive of National Grid Transco(NGT) in London (Transco also owns Niagara Mohawk) when he said that the August 2003 blackout in London, U.K., was a “totally exceptional” occurrence. (33) Blackouts are in fact becoming the norm in deregulated markets throughout the world:
1998 - In Auckland, New Zealand, a devastating blackout occurred after deregulation
1999 – In New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana (all deregulated markets) blackouts began wreaking havoc throughout the region
2002/2001 – Californians suffered through a major power crisis (and blackouts stopped once deregulation was put on hold by the California Power Authority)
In mid-August, 2003, a serious power shutdown affected 50 million people in the Northeastern U.S. and Ontario
In late August, 2003, London, England faced a serious power blackout during the rush hour lasting hours as thousands were trapped in the subway system
These are the dangers facing us as we reflect on the most recent disaster:
1.Although supply of electricity is not the major problem, there is a shortage of publicly provided supply and it is a problem when it is kept at a minimum in order to maximize profits for private companies.
2.Transmission grids are under greater stress than ever as they move power over huge distances and buyers and sellers compete for the profits to be made on what was once “public power”. In the northeastern U.S. and Canada, the grids have been neglected in the past decade and are therefore, susceptible to breakdown.
3.There are inherent dangers in the “unbundling”(or breaking up) of vertically integrated public companies solely to meet the needs of the U.S. plan for deregulation and privatization.
4.Deep integration with the U.S. regional transmission organizations is a major problem.
5.The countless stories about the Ontario Hydro “debt” have been used as an excuse for divesting to the private sector.
6.As witnessed in the example of Ontario, a “price cap” can be misleading as consumers and citizens continue to pay for the subsidies.
http://www.infobatt.com/zip/07/The%20Future%20of%20Energy%20Storage%20in%20Evolving%20Canadian%20%20Electricity%20Supply%20System.pdf
http://cupe.ca/PrivatizationUtilities/ART3f719b0a8bd00#otherlessons
BlackbirdHighway 9:06PM (5/19/2009)
"...doesn't expect PHEV demand to top 50,000 units a year and it could be as low as 3,500."
How ironic. I believe GM had the very same expectations about the marketability of the Prius.
Reply
polo 10:04PM (5/19/2009)
Funny thing is, between Nissan, Mitsubishi, Ford, and GM thats already at least 70,000+ plug-ins by 2012, and I'm leaving at least Mercedes, BYD, and at least two foreign suppliers planning on releasing electrics here around that time.