REPORT: Governments need to step up to drive the electric vehicle market
Nissan EV-02 prototype - click above for a high res gallery
While Toyota may be skeptical of near term market demand for plug-in vehicles there are obviously others who think differently, including Nissan and Mitsubishi, among others. Market analysts Frost and Sullivan rank among the latter group. The firm has released a new projection that the European market for EVs could be as high as 480,000 units annually by 2015. A previous study from a year earlier only predicted half that number of EVs.
In order for that prediction to come to fruition, the market will need help to get jump-started. The Frost and Sullivan report is critical of European governments that offer only vaguely defined or weak incentive plans such as France or Austria. It goes on to praise the UK for a £5,000 subsidy for electric vehicle buyers.
Just as in the U.S., electric vehicles in Europe are subject to substantial price premiums over gas or diesel alternatives due largely to the high cost of batteries. Until that cost comes down substantially, hefty incentives will be required to get demand flowing.
Gallery: Quick Drive: Nissan EV-02 prototype
[Source: Frost and Sullivan]
PRESS RELEASE:
Government Support Critical for Powering the Electric Vehicle Market, Says Frost & Sullivan
LONDON, May 19 /PRNewswire/ -- By 2015 the European market for electric vehicles (EVs) could potentially grow to 480,000 units. Frost & Sullivan has revised this forecast from the prediction of 250,000 EVs by 2015 made last year due to changing supply dynamics.
While vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, utilities and other businesses have jumped onto the EV bandwagon, government subsidies and incentives will be critical to support both the supply and demand side. Although some European governments have taken some visible initiatives to support the EV market, steps towards commercialisation of EV are vague in some cases.
"Considering the current state of the auto industry, oil dependence and available technologies, it is time for change and EVs are the right choice," states Frost & Sullivan (http://www.automotive.frost.com/) Senior Research Analyst Anjan Hemanth Kumar. "We believe that Federal governments will play a pivotal role in realising the dream of pure green mobility."
Most European governments fall short in offering EV-related subsidies and other incentives to consumers. The German government does not offer incentives to EV customers, except for a car tax exemption for five years.
France, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria offer vaguely defined subsidies on green vehicles. In Italy, tax exemptions and subsidies are limited to only specific regions within the country. Denmark's only monetary incentive for buying a new EV is to waive the 180% tax on purchased vehicles.
In contrast, the UK government announced a subsidy of up to euro 5,600 (5,000 pounds Sterling) for EV buyers. This marks the first plan to encourage consumers at such a high degree.
"Frost & Sullivan believes consumer subsidies should have detailed budgets and clarity," Kumar says. "Furthermore, governments should also ensure that an adequate number of vehicles is available. This has been a problem, as there are not enough EVs on the road to utilise subsidy benefits. Most models will not even be ready for purchase until 2011 at the earliest."
In addition to monetary incentives, authorities need to try to resolve regulatory matters. To promote widespread use of EVs, governments need to ensure the availability of at least four charging points per EV in the first year, thereafter reducing to 2.5 charging points per EV by the fifth year.
A fast charging infrastructure is also needed. Governments have the power to influence the standardisation of batteries and EV infrastructure and empower the green movement in the automobile industry.
"A key opportunity for European governments with EVs is to take the lead in developing battery technology," Kumar concludes. "Incentives could be provided to local manufacturers to encourage them to create and keep jobs in Western Europe instead of moving them to the Far East, as is currently the case."
If you are interested in more information on Frost & Sullivan's analysis of the market for electric vehicles in Europe, then send an e-mail to Patrick Cairns, Corporate Communications, at patrick.cairns@frost.com, with your full name, company name, title, telephone number, company e-mail address, company website and country.
Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best in class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company's Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO's Growth Team with disciplined research and best practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 45 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from more than 35 offices on six continents. To join our Growth Partnership, please visit http://www.frost.com/.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Mehdi Cheddadi 2:44PM (5/21/2009)
one word. HYDROGEN
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Mark 3:06PM (5/21/2009)
Yip, we need to be tied to the oil companies for another 100 years. Hydrogen is the dead horse that is continually flogged to the uninformed consumer.
I unlike you want to have a car that I can power at home by solar panel, drive to work (which is 20km) and power in my car park. I don't want to have an inefficient H2 car that is weak replacement for oil.
I for one will not buy another car unless it has a plug.
ziv 3:57PM (5/21/2009)
I think that there are going to be two models for the next 10-15 years, BEV and ER-EV, and in the near term ER-EV's are going to be much more practical for most people, especially as apartment buildings begin to find new revenue streams by building charging stations in their parking garages. $.10 kWh from the power company or $.12 kWh from your landlord, you still are driving for about 1/5 the cost of driving an ICE car. BEV's will still be sold in large numbers but primarily as a town car, where the limited range irritation factor won't be as critical.
But in 10 years, battery tech is going to get to the point where batteries large enough to give you ICE-like range, while allowing fast charging for road trips, will be inexpensive enough that the range extender generator will no longer make sense.
Still wish the Volt I was going to be built with a flex fuel supercharged 1.0 L. instead of a normally aspirated 1.4 L. One can dream...
Hydrogen fool cells aren't going to be practical for at least 20 years, unless you consider a $500,000 automobile that has 5 fueling stations within 300 miles of you to be practical.
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John Pelletier 4:18PM (5/21/2009)
hahahaha hydrogen fool cells i like it
nope no market for ev's none at all
you create the market if there is none!!!! there didn't use to be a market for SUV's except for the real off road types, gee the auto companies managed to create a market for them now didn't they
this is good news though, bring on the electrics baby
Earl Killian 4:23PM (5/21/2009)
Today when you buy a car you get a choice between automatic or manual transmission, with occasional options like a turbocharger or engine size. I speculate that in the future is that the choice will be between ER-EV and BEV for the same vehicle. The automaker will offer a larger battery pack on the BEV after getting rid of gobs of ER stuff (tank, engine, pumps, filters, belts, oil, radiator, catalytic converter, and muffler). A lot of 2+ person households will have one of each, using the ER-EV for long trips, and the BEV for commuting. Over time BEVs will get fast charging and their battery packs will come down in price and the ER option will fade away.
Stew 5:32PM (5/21/2009)
The market is there, the problem is there isn't any mainstream BEV choices! Either they are NEVs, motorcycle class 3-wheelers or the super expensive Tesla, that's it.
Sites like evalbum.com prove there is a market! These people want a BEV so bad they are converting them themselves!
As soon as major automakers start selling mainstream BEVs, they will fly off the showroom floor.
Stew
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gorr 7:57PM (5/21/2009)
I don't understand them, i said last month to stop any subsidies to incompetants. They inconciously mistaken a new car with a new brain because of the old old old prayers of jesus when almost anybody were in electric brain in robot corpses, that happen 85 billions years ago. Peoples were giving instant orders to anyone via electronics frequencies like radio, so peoples were feeling like useless and testeless and they always dream to join civilisation in a flesh corpse. So this moment is now, join actual civilisation in your actual flesh corpse. Go in gm and ford and chrysler dealerships and ask for an actual car powered by a water electrolyzer the same kind that were powering these robot corpses of long time ago. It give free fuel for a lot of years because after usage the water that is used is returning to water again. If the saleman don't have this kind of car, he or she will ask their compagny to build some to keep his job.
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