Electric vehicle "glut" might be coming, so watch these five companies
Here's an interesting concept: too many electric cars. While even the most optimistic EV proponents don't see electric cars making a huge dent in the number of traditional ICE vehicles any time soon, a powertrain analyst for J.D. Power and Associates, thinks that there soon (within the next decade) might be a "glut" of plug-in cars. Go figure.
Actually, here's how analyst Mike Omotoso's figuring goes: right now, governments and greenies are the driving force behind electric cars. WIth the high cost of the plug-ins and the low cost of gas, there just won't be enough customer demand for EVs once the initial rush (and the first wave of subsidies) is over.
In this (potential) environment, which electric companies have the Right Stuff to survive? Jay Yaron, over at Business Insider thinks that Nissan, Toyota, Tesla, GM and Coda (yes, brand new Coda) are the ones to watch. Your thoughts?
[Source: Reuters, Business Insider]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Herm 7:34PM (6/10/2009)
of course if gas shoots up again.....
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Scatter 1:37AM (6/11/2009)
If? When.
I'd love to know what oil price forecasts this anaylsis is based on. Any chance of finding out ABG?
polo 2:23AM (6/11/2009)
I can answer your question Scatter, its NOT. These same idiotic analysts are predicting a huge increase in oil consumption by China by the year 2015, and its these same predictions that are motivating the hedge funds to buy up oil futures (which in turn is jacking up prices at the pump). If their predictions for oil are correct it would mean gas prices dramatically higher than even last year's high, and if thats the case even a million EVs a year won't be enough to meet demand. Of course that scenario is both unlikely and unsustainable (it would cause a crash in demand and economic activity, just like last year). These analysts and their reckless fantasy projections are creating a huge bubble in the energy markets....which ironically is raising interest and potential demand for EVs.
Lad 7:38PM (6/10/2009)
I look for Nissan/Renault to lead the world in the mass production of BEVs because they are aligned with "Better Place" and have a ready market in several countries for their products, Israel, Norway, Australia and several areas in Canada and The U.S.; Renault will build the chassis and Nissan the battery packs. The market in Austrtalia is estimated at 10 million units alone.
Have you watched the price of oil going up? Well! it's up to 70 bucks per barrel from 40 and climbing. Oil prices are creating a natural market for EVs and I only see the market growing for the products in the near and far future.
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Ken 7:44PM (6/10/2009)
"Jay Yaron, over at Business Insider thinks that Nissan, Toyota, Tesla, GM and Coda (yes, brand new Coda) are the ones to watch."
What about Mitsubishi with their iMiEV or Ford with the electric Focus? We should not expect them to survive? Jay's banking on GM?
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stevejust 8:10PM (6/10/2009)
Being that I'm waiting for a plug-in electric car I'm about to spend a ton of money on, I have actually given the potential for a glut of EVs a lot of thought.
I said I was going to keep track of the sales of used Tesla Roadsters on E-bay, and then I never did. But if I were a blogger for autobloggreen, that's something I'd have been watching very closely all along.
The EV market is going to be extremely interesting to watch. On the one hand, Tesla delivered their 500th car. On the other hand, most people trying to sell them used seem to be looking for about $125,000 -- a hefty premium over the $109,000 cost of the car. (Actually since some of the ones I've seen on e-bay and craisglist, like #9, were founder-series, so for some it was $100,000).
I'm assuming the $7,500 tax credit stays with the original purchaser and can't be transferred to the subsequent purchaser, so being someone who's been thinking about getting a Tesla -- I find it more palatable to wait until they have some at their dealership here in Los Angeles waiting to be sold rather than to pay any premium to get it now and forego the tax benefits. But then-- maybe they will tightly contain excess production and I’ll never be able to try to low ball them an offer.
Eventually, everyone who has $100k to buy an electric car and is willing to buy one is going to have a Tesla Roadster. And that’s not all that many people. To keep selling the car, Tesla is going to have to lower the price point no differently than apple has to do with iphones to keep selling more and more. The Fisker Karma, which I’m waiting for, is in that same general market. Once you start talking about the difference between spending $80k and $100k on a car… that $20k isn’t all that much, really. Can Fisker really sell 15,000 cars a year on top of whatever Tesla sells with a head start, with the Model S coming along to chip into their sales in a relatively short time frame?
Then Mercedes will also be a player in relatively short order, and maybe Infiniti through the Nissan work – and the high-end EV market will be completely saturated.
As for the iMiEV and Nissan Cube and Subraru and Volt competitor class—who knows how many of them the market can absorb. But if gas keeps going up, the answer will be as many as can be produced. The only thing one needs to know to be able to answer this question is whether we’re past peak oil. If you believe we are, there will be no glut. If the global economy continues to constrain demand for gasoline, there will be a glut. But my money’s on oil disappearing faster than anyone is really predicting.
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Lad 8:40PM (6/10/2009)
I agree: oil is becoming more difficult to mine and thus more expensive; add to this that demand will continue to increase when the economies come back and you have reasons to support EVs.
I glad to hear that you have the money to be an early customer; I, on the other hand, must keep the gas car until the price drops. I have always purchased used cars because I can usually fix the problems and I find it hard to pay the price of a new car and subject it to the hazards of California highways.
FitFan 8:50PM (6/10/2009)
I think it's a bit early to predict a glut of EVs. Right now only one car company is selling an EV to consumers, and those are made to order.
I suspect that early manufacturers of EVs are going to take a cautious approach on production numbers.
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km 9:34PM (6/10/2009)
After that article on autobloggreen showed how easy it is to retrofit an electric powertrain into an ICE vehicle I sorta get the feeling EV conversions will be the Next Big Thing. Between low cost of initial vehicle and low maintenance costs.... I love the idea of taking a car with a blown powertrain for under a grand and having a fully capable EV for what is mostly the cost of batteries.
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PeakOyle 8:29AM (6/11/2009)
The Oil price will rocket up as soon as the Recession is declared over.
I've noticed in the the past month or so since the tiny feint whispers of 'Green Shoots' the Oil price creeping up.
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Mike!!ekiM 11:49PM (6/10/2009)
You've got a couple of points to consider:
- Hedge fund holding oil tankers have dropped from about 52 to 32.
- The developing world is now consuming more resources then the developed.
- Nations are worried about how vulnerable they are to oil shortages.
A plugin car solves "Gas Shortage Anxiety".
And I believe we are going to need a good supply of these.
Without EV's or Range Extended EV's with plugs we are highly vulnerable to Chinese-Indian demand.
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jharlan 12:26AM (6/11/2009)
The EV manufacturers are just too proud of them. It's kind of like when the SUV first got hot, they were about 10K overpriced. It's the same with EVs. Everyone who commutes would like to be able to use one until they see the price. They are just waaaaaay overpriced for what you get. A mini car is worth 10 to 15 K tops whether it's an EV or Ice. There isn't much EV premium. If you are going to charge 30K+ for a glorified golf cart, then you are only going to be able to sell them to the lunatic fringe. (You know who I am talking about).
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polo 2:09AM (6/11/2009)
Really? Europe is full of minicars and they don't go that cheap. What world do you live in?
Paul 12:38AM (6/11/2009)
Another twit predicting the end of EVs before they’ve even hit the streets.
Seriously, J.D. Power and Associates and the rest of the ‘analyst’ industry need to get a proper jobs. They belong with all the Wall Street losers who delude themselves that they can predict the future….. 10 years out… LOL
These clowns need a night at the dog track to witness idiots routinely prove that you can’t predict 10 second into the future let alone 10 years!
Lets use the ICE market as an example of a 'glut'... what were the peak vehicle production numbers before the wall street clowns crashed the market? 73 MILLION cars were produced and sold globally in 2007. How long will it take to reach that level with EVs when there isn't even 10,000 EVs annually in production yet.
Analysts are just idiots!!!! LOL
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jharlan 1:01AM (6/11/2009)
Paul, you are dead on right. No one can predict 10 years out. We might all be in antigravity devices, it's just unpredictable. The EV market is in it's infancy. Nothing is linear.
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Andy 1:31AM (6/11/2009)
The electric car business is going to progress something along the lines of the solar panel industry.
There are so many parallels.
Solar panels/ lithium batteries are both expensive in the early development phases.
Early adopters are often green altruists.
Users asked to pay capital costs up front, for promise of low future running costs.
Multiple players and multiple technology options in early stages folowed by industry consolidation.
Industrial users with quantifiable needs will bring up early volumes (e.g. Smith trucks, Power companies)
Early stage incentives are needed to scale volumes and reduce costs.
Look at Solar Panels today to see where lithium batteries will be in 5 years. It's a choppy ride but a predictable outcome.
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kert 2:37AM (6/11/2009)
Ok, they forgot guys that are first to market ? Mitsubishi, Subaru and Pininfarina ? Also the south african Joule should be shipping soone ?
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GoFaster58 7:06AM (6/11/2009)
I still wonder if our electrical grid will be able to support a million EV's a year. What about blackouts? Then where does that leave us? People who live in apartments and condo's can't charge an electric vehicle.
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boo 5:05AM (6/15/2009)
Do you think our grid is that fragile that if 1 million people went out and bought a fridge and plugged it in right now that the US would have a blackout? Thats the amount of energy you're talking about to recharge a car.
DP 1:25PM (6/11/2009)
As much as I'd like to have an Inferno Orange 2SS Camaro RS with black rally stripes and ground effects, I'm trying to hold off buying another car until I can get an affordable sporty EV. We sized our solar panels to take into account charging a car such as the Volt.
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