REPORT: Tesla Motors valued at $1 billion
by Jeremy Korzeniewski on Jun 17th 2009 at 1:02PM 
Wondering how much Tesla Motors might be worth on the open market? It would seem the actual figure would depend you who you ask. Based on the assumption that Daimler paid $50 million for nine-percent of Tesla, the Silicon Valley automaker would theoretically be worth $550 million.
According to SharesPost, which bills itself as a community for private equity transactions and the central hub for private company research and valuation data, Tesla's value is actually much higher: roughly $1 billion. To come up with that figure, SharesPost contracted Next Up Research to create a report that supposedly takes into account current revenue from Roadster sales as well as expected revenue from the Tesla Model S and a future electric vehicle, codenamed Blue Star, which will be smaller and cost less than the S.
Next Up outlines the potential risks in investing in a startup automaker like Tesla, such as a "lack of significant cost or performance advantage" over conventional sports cars, the vast number of expected competitors and possible safety issues with using advanced lithium ion batteries. Clearly, there are some major assumptions at work here.
Gallery: Tesla Model S: LIVE REVEAL
[Source: Earth2Tech]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Serge 1:41PM (6/17/2009)
To value a company based on revenues only seems like a very silly idea. Got a spare $25,000?
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Joe 1:52PM (6/17/2009)
Like houses in CA, there's a big difference in what a house is worth and what someone is willing to pay for it. If the house is valued at $1 million and buyers are only willing to pay $750k, then the $1 million valuation is bogus. I'm sure Daimler did their due diligence when they paid $50 million for 9%, so to say that Telsa is worth $1b is a long shot.
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paulwesterberg 2:09PM (6/17/2009)
That might have been before they announced the model s which probably increased their valuation in the eyes of investors.
I still think this simple graph is totally off. It shows huge roadster revenues and modest model S revenues. While per unit profit on the model s might be lower factors such as mass production, economies of scale and high unit sales should ensure it will produce the bulk of their revenue by2014.
Nixon 4:28PM (6/17/2009)
The Daimler deal cannot be used as a comparison for valuation, because Daimler is bringing more than just cash to the deal. It is also bringing their expertise and other resources into the deal. They aren't just another investor.
So the math of 50 billion / .09% == 550 Billion Value of Tesla doesn't work. Because there is more on the 50 billion side. The actual valuation would be this:
(50 billion / .09) + (Value of Daimler Services / .09) = Value of Tesla
Which equals:
Value of Tesla = 550 billion + the value that Daimler brings to the table.
Unless somebody can find a way to quantify the value that Daimler is bringing to the table above and beyond the 50 billion in cash they paid, it is impossible to solve for the Value of Tesla.
go back and look at the second post on the original story.
Redeemed 4:37PM (6/17/2009)
I agree. What we are seeing are some "green" companies becomming way over valued do to all the hype around them.
Can you say 1999 tech stock bubble?
mister nomer 6:29PM (6/17/2009)
Nixon says: "So the math of 50 billion / .09% == 550 Billion Value of Tesla doesn't work."
Just as an FYI: Daimler paid 50 million for 9% of Tesla.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/05/20/is-tesla-really-worth-550-million-daimler-apparently-thinks-so/
art1000 2:37PM (6/17/2009)
I think the Model S is the automobile equivalent of the iPhone in terms of the quantum leap in technology and design it represents. It could be enormous with a lot of people postponing purchase until it is available. The best way to test this is an IPO and if and when Tesla seek to do this? Organic growth has taken them rapidly to $1Billion market cap. An IPO yielding another billion in cash could see them dominate the market by 2020 with a capitalization of $20Billion. I personally will look to invest when stock becomes available.
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BlackbirdHighway 5:58PM (6/17/2009)
Over a billion dollars in revenue from Roadster sales in 2009? At $100,000 a car, that's over 10,000 cars. I don't know who made that graph, but their briefcase should be checked for contraband.
As I understand it, the sales goal for the Roadster is 1,000 cars a year. For the Model S it's about 1,000 in 2011, 5,000 to 10,000 in 2012 and 10,000 to 20,000 per year after that.
They graph should also include some supplemental revenue from the Smart EV deal, but how much who knows.
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mister nomer 6:18PM (6/17/2009)
BlackbirdHighway says: "Over a billion dollars in revenue from Roadster sales in 2009? At $100,000 a car, that's over 10,000 cars. I don't know who made that graph, but their briefcase should be checked for contraband."
Beat me to it. = ))
To reach a billion dollars in revenue from roadster sales in 2009 as projected on the graph, Tesla would have to sell 9,852 cars - assuming a base price of $101,500 for each. Even assuming it's a mistake, it still looks like Next Up Research just picked a line for revenues to follow and then made up percentages for the 3 models.
Furthermore, clicking through to the article reveals another graph that projects 1,500 roadster sales for 2009, 3,000 for 2010, and 3,500 for 2011 - which all seem very optimistic considering I keep reading:
1) how their production rate will eliminate their back order before the end of the year and they haven't even delivered 1,000 cars yet.
2) their maximum production capacity with their existing plant is less than 2,000 a year.
Henry 9:30AM (6/18/2009)
I don't buy the math for the Roadster. Definitely take the under.
2009= 15,000 Roadsters
Really? 2009 is half way over and they’ve only sold 500 cumulative.
2010= 30,000 Roadsters
The Corvette only sells about 20,000 2 seaters a year and cost much less, with a fan base that is just as passonate
2011= 35,000 Roadsters + 15,000 Model S
2012= 40,000 Roadsters + 30,000 Model S
Just how many people want a 2 seater? If they lower the price, then they will have to increase the sales to meet the projected revenue
2013= 45,000 Roadsters + 45,000 Model S + 15,000 Blue Star
The Model S @ $50K and Blue Star @ $25k seem doable if they deliver as promised, but 45,000 Roadsters!
mister nomer 7:15PM (6/17/2009)
Curioser and curioser...
Again, if you click through to the article, the graph that shows projected Tesla roadster sales:
1500 (2009)
3000 (2010)
3500 (2011)
4000 (2012)
4500 (2013)
5000 (2014)
5000 (2015)
also shows projected Tesla Model S sales:
750 (2011)
1500 (2012)
2000 (2013)
3000 (2014)
4000 (2015)
The report says that these numbers are sourced from "Company Reports and CandleStick Advisors Estimates".
Somebody has got to be off, but who? Tesla, Candlestick Advisors, and/or Next Up Research?
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TANKD0G 9:54AM (6/18/2009)
The company has yet to make a dime and has a pile of debt. To think anyone will still be interested in one of these cars by 2015 is even more ridiculous. There will be a dozen better options on the road by then. This article is laughable.
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Tesla Motors Concepts 5:23PM (6/18/2009)
Wouldn't this mean they are profitable? And it's my understanding that Telsa being profitable is still something they are trying to achieve by sometime this year. Something's not right. ~TMC (http://www.teslamotorsconcepts.com)
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