All that may be true, however Europeans love "their' domestic brands. The Insight outsold the Pruis, but is it outselling a diesel Golf, Focus, Megane or Astra?

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Cool analysis, but there are several other effects which customers may consider while actually buying a vehicle:

1) are the prices for similar level of equipment?
2) diesel is taxed less in many european countries, regardless of hybrids' superior CO2 emissions.
3) turbodiesels are more torquey, so same-horsepower diesel car will probably perform better: 134-hp prius does 0-60 in ~10 sec, but 140-hp jetta tdi does 0-60 in ~8.5 sec (big difference).
4) not enough customer awareness of hybrids: european conventional wisdom says "diesels good on fuel, petrol cars are gas hogs"
5) unconventional hybrid looks for prius/insight
6) customers not trusting hybrid tech, since hybrids are still pretty rare in europe.
7) europeans wanting to buy manual trans cars, regardless of economics + manual-trans cars being 1K cheaper as well.

Then again, smart euro customers may consider hybrids' vastly superior fuel economy in city-type driving, where 90+% of europeans are stuck anyways, and buy them.

Also note that both Prius and Insight are priced much higher in europe than US, so honda/toyota have significant pricing power to lower prices and increase volumes if they wish.

Good points, though, and there's no doubt that hybrid sales will increase in europe, but with just 2 legitimate models both looking the same, I don't predict a 'revolution.' Gov't incentives favoring all clean-burning and efficient vehicles, regardless of fuel type used, would go a long way. Hmmm...what a concept...

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Thank you, tom engineer, for a good post with fair points.


tom engineer:

> 1) are the prices for similar level of equipment?

To be honest, I didn't analyze what comes as standard, it's boring and tedious job. Just picked cheapest versions. Likely there will be 6 airbags,ABS, ESP, some electric windows, air condition, maybe a radio with speakers. That's it.


> 2) diesel is taxed less in many european countries, regardless
> of hybrids' superior CO2 emissions.

Well, it depends. Some coutries tax the CO2, other tax the cubic capacity, EURO norm compliance, power.


> 3) turbodiesels are more torquey, so same-horsepower
> diesel car will probably perform better:

This is valid as long as you compare them with naturally aspirated (N/A) engines of any tipe where there's no turbocharger to build up low rev intake air pressure and thus allow for more powerful combustion.

Hybrids also have N/A engines, moreover working in less powerful Atkinson cycle, but then come the electric "boost", every time you accelerate. I believe then it is rather hybrids smooth acceleration compared with diesels abrupt power increase (look at typical diesels power/torque chart, at the very beginning about 1500 rpm power raises dramatically fast, then the increase slows down) which causes forward initial jump when flooring the car that makes diesel feel quicker.


> 134-hp prius does 0-60 in ~10 sec, but 140-hp jetta tdi
> does 0-60 in ~8.5 sec (big difference).

This is a bit overestimated. Edmunds in their full test test got 8.9 for the 140HP Jetta TDI DSG. Autoexpress says 9.5 sec for the Golf 6 TDI 140HP DSG. Volkswagen webpage says 9,7 for the same car with a DSG.

I believe then these cars will have virtually equal, undistinguishable performance.


> 4) not enough customer awareness of hybrids: european
> conventional wisdom says "diesels good on fuel, petrol cars are gas hogs"

You're absolutely right at this point. What I fear even more though is European motoring press absolute bias against hybrids.

Part of the reason is that most of this press is consolidated in German hands. Result? They spew propaganda against hybrids.

Like inflating Prius mpg, for instance. Check this:
http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/eco/spar-vergleich-toyota-prius-oder-vw-golf-876789.html
German most prominent motoring newspaper lies Prius does 6,7 l/100km = 35,1 mpg. Autoexpress did the same. Al the same time they slightly deflated Golf 6 TDI mileage.

In fact Prius gets 5,23 l/100km = 45 mpg US and Golf 6 TDI 110HP gets 5,42 l/100km = 43,4 mpg. Gasoline equivalent will be 5,42l/100km*1,12=6,07 l/100km = 38,75 mpg US.

Prius: http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/uebersicht/49-Toyota/439-Prius.html?constyear_s=2004&constyear_e=2009
Golf: http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/uebersicht/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=1&constyear_s=2009&power_s=80&power_e=82

Auto Motor und Sport also never mentioned about ADAC EcoTEST rating of 850+ cars which Prius topped and in which diesels occupied most of its 400 last places.


> 5) unconventional hybrid looks for prius/insight

True, that's a double-edged sword. May help, may hamper.


> 6) customers not trusting hybrid tech, since hybrids
> are still pretty rare in europe.

True.


> 7) europeans wanting to buy manual trans cars,
> regardless of economics + manual-trans cars being
> 1K cheaper as well.

True, but it's only about cash. 99% of those who once drove an automatic, no longer wants to row a manual anymore.


> Then again, smart euro customers may consider
> hybrids' vastly superior fuel economy in city-type driving,
> where 90+% of europeans are stuck anyways, and buy them.

Exactly. Much less highways, open roads in Europe as compared with the USA.


> Also note that both Prius and Insight are priced much higher
> in europe than US

As is the case with any other car.

> so honda/toyota have significant pricing power to lower
> prices and increase volumes if they wish.

True, good to them. Fortunatelly they didn't repeat the previous Prius mistake and offered loaded hybrids at high price.

Also remember the EU penalizes imports with some 10% duty.


> Good points, though, and there's no doubt that hybrid sales
> will increase in europe, but with just 2 legitimate models both
> looking the same, I don't predict a 'revolution.

Fair point.

True, few hybrids are on sale in Europe. I have no idea why Toyota is not bringing the Camry Hybrid to Europe. Maybe not to compete with their own Avensis diesels? But anyway, such move could help cementing hybrids fortress.

They do not bring Highlander Hybrid likely because large SUVs are considered premium in Europe by default so they do not want to compete with their own Lexus RX450h.

Lexus hybrids also do not fit that well in the European landscape. These are expensive, powerful, fast cars. And while they have significant efficiency and price/value advanage over comparable German premium diesel cars, a lot of these German premium diesel cars sell as much cheaper 140-170HP diesels (manuals). And Lexus offers no downscaled (in terms of power) hybrids in Europe. HS250h may change this, however I'm not satisfied with how they made it.

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It's funny to read post's with statements " from these sources..." - including mixing Euro bills with Dollar ones... the usual joke!

The point here in europe is:

To run in city and nearby, just make sense to use cheap cars like Fiat, Citroen & Co, with small gasoline engines (maximum 1.2L) that, by now do not have hybrids...

If you buy a car that also will be used for some "long journeys everyday", just say 50Km per day, by default a Diesel powered version just make the best sense (take for it the 1.3L DTI Astra from Opel or the wide seen 1.5L DCi from Renault)
And why? Because the cars have enough capacity to "breath" - it`s just a different culture from you Americans folks, that pretend that Power is V8, 400Cv and... 4-AT... LOLOLOLOL!

So, and then come the Japanese hybrids, that enter the game with 1.3L DTI and 1.5DCi cars, with what?

1.3L gasoline or 1.5L, oh, just wait, no 1.8L wow! impressive, we just do not want to hear about gasoline for everyday cars and these guys stick a "huge" engine for European standards... really impressive!

and top of it: automatic transmissions

You know what, appart from luxury cars, we europeans just start to accept "some" AT due to the wonderfull DSG gearbox, apart that, AT share is ZERO in "everyday" cars...

So after these bunch of cars delivered to the dealers, let`s see how sales will be...

I`m tempted that they will be... really botommed down, specially the 1.8L one...

You know what?
There will be an European Prius soon: 1.5L to keep up some sales...

I will pay a pint of beer to you folks!

Cheers

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cool down:

> To run in city and nearby, just make sense to use
> cheap cars like Fiat, Citroen & Co, with small gasoline engines
> (maximum 1.2L)

So why there are so any larger cars (compacts, midsize, executive, SUVs) hovering around European cities?


> If you buy a car that also will be used for some
> "long journeys everyday", just say 50Km per day,
> by default a Diesel powered version just make the best sense

By default?

By default diesel is more expensive to buy now and more expensive to run overall.


> 1.3L gasoline or 1.5L, oh, just wait, no 1.8L wow!
> impressive, we just do not want to hear about gasoline
> for everyday cars and these guys stick a "huge" engine
> for European standards... really impressive!

Prius is somewhere between compact and midsize class, Insight is rather compact.

Majority of gasoline engines in compact cars are about 1400-1600cc, diesels are between 1400-1600-2000cc.

Majority of gasoline midsize cars are 1800cc+. Virtually every diesel midsize is 2000cc.


> You know what, appart from luxury cars, we europeans
> just start to accept "some" AT due to the wonderfull DSG gearbox,
> apart that, AT share is ZERO in "everyday" cars...

Site: mobile.de which has the feature of counting used cars available for sale meeting selected criteria.

Car group: VW Golf + Skoda Octavia + VW Passat (both gasoline and diesel), size: midsize and compacts
manual: 29.607
automatic: 6.157
20% share of automatics

Cars: VW Passat + Ford Mondeo, type: diesel, size: midsize
manual: 11.558
automatic: 3.152
27% share of automatics

And you said ZERO.

Diesels are shitty to drive with manual gearboxes. Most have 6 gears cause diesel engines have short torque plateau. So you have to row and row and row the stick....


> I`m tempted that they will be... really botommed down, specially the 1.8L one...

1.8 2010 Prius is more powerful and more efficient than 1.5 2004 Prius.

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This comment says it all. The cost of hybrids are way overpriced in Europe. The return on investment does not even begin to make sense for a hybrid. Tiny cars with tiny engines are very cheap in Europe (I have lived in England), hybrids are not going to win peoples minds until they cost exactly the same or the government subsidizes the hell out of them or outright bans all cars but hybrids. This will be the case in the ultra small fuel efficient car class forever...

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Rafa is a typical nonsense-spewer. Everything he says is false.


> Gasoline hybrids in europe doesn't make sense,
> because diesel is cheaper than gasoline (1.01 euros a liter vs 1.329 euros)

1. Diesel has been more expensive than gasoline in the UK for quite a long time. So is the case in some other Euro countries.

2. Take a look at fuel prices in Germany: http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/verlauf_der_kraftstoffpreise.html

Diesel has been narrowing the price gap to gasoline for a long time. It was on par with gasoline not that long time ago. Reason? Price push by diesel passanger cars. Such phaenomenon occured in the entire Europe.

The current spread is only due to crisis situation and shrinking economy. Industry and transportation reacts immediately, cutting consumption so the price falls. Consumers are much less elastic, they still drive their cars to work and back, so do they on weekends for some leasure activities.

Scientists have been criticizing negative impact of diesel cars in Europe for a long time, pointing out unbalanced refineries, necessity of diesel import/gasoline export, unnecessary investments by refineries transferred to final customers:
IMPACTS OF THE INCREASING AUTOMOTIVE DIESEL CONSUMPTION IN THE EU, B. KAVALOV and S. D. PETEVES, European Comission Joint Research Centre, EUR 21378 EN:
http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/scientific_publications/2004/EUR%2021378%20EN.pdf

By the way, price pressure on diesel makes everything more expensive since producers, transportation and industry simply passes increased fuel cost on European consumers.


> and they are less fuel thirsty.

This is obviously nonsense, hybrids are not only more efficient but also consume less fuel in terms of volume.


> I have a Volvo V50 diesel that gets 4.7 liters per 100 km
> something like 50mpg. Why should I trade it for a prius that gets the same fuel
> economy?

Because you do not get 4,7l/100km. Average mileage for slowest Volvo V50 diesels is
5,89 l/100 km = 40 mpg. Sample: 43 drivers.

Source: http://www.spritmonitor.de/de/uebersicht/51-Volvo/464-V50.html?fueltype=1&power_s=78&power_e=82

On the same page, the previous Prius gets 5,23 l/100km = 45 mpg U.S (642 samples).
The all new Honda Insight gets 5,38 l/100km = 43,7 mpg U.S. Expect the 2010 Prius to undercut the 4,5 l / 100 km.


> Bottom line... in europe gasoline hybrids don't
> have a bright future, 'cause diesel cars with the
> same size or bigger, get the same fuel economy or better.

Bottom line is you talk crap.


> btw europeans hate automatic transmissions...
> and hybrids dont offer manuals :p

Oh really? So why every European luxury car and SUV gets an autobox as standard? Mercedes S, BMW 7, Audi A8, Audi Q7, Mercedes ML, BMW X5 - all those have no manual transmissions. Why? Europeans should hate them.

The reason is simple. because everyone who drove any modern automatic car even once, no longer wants to row a manual.

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downtoearth some of your conclusions don't make sense.

"Because you do not get 4,7l/100km. Average mileage for slowest Volvo V50 diesels is
5,89 l/100 km = 40 mpg. Sample: 43 drivers." Becuase 43 drivers AVERAGED 40 mpg he must not get 50 mpg?

"Oh really? So why every European luxury car and SUV gets an autobox as standard? Mercedes S, BMW 7, Audi A8, Audi Q7, Mercedes ML, BMW X5 - all those have no manual transmissions. Why? Europeans should hate them." You are comparing 2 very different segment of cars. Comparing a luxury sedan and SUV to sub compact cars is a bit much. Europeans DO prefer manual transmissions on small engined cars.

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The diesel premium is lower in Europe than in the U.S. (EU still has laxer emissions standards)

So the $2,000 extra a small turbodiesel engine & after-treatment system would cost you here in the U.S. could be half that in Europe.

The premium for a gasoline-electric full hybrid system is much more (IIRC, J.D. Power's recent poll pegged it at $5,000)

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downtoearth
2:02pm (6/19/2009)


http://www.energy.eu/ -> check this site out to see the price difference between diesel and gasoline.
Just because in your country gasoline is cheaper than diesel, that doesnt happen in the majority of europe.

Automatic transmissions are standard in luxury cars because they're considered a luxury in europe. Name 10 cars under 40000euros that come with standard at transmission(except prius and insight) .

And yes I DO get 4.7 liters per 100 km in my volvo. My trick to get that number? Not driving like a moron.

I know that you can produce more gasoline than diesel from a barrel of oil , but what we are here talking is about the CAR CONSUMPTION OF FUEL, not the volume of oil that is required to make a gallon of diesel or gasoline.

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Throwback:

> downtoearth some of your conclusions don't make sense.
> "Because you do not get 4,7l/100km. Average mileage for
> slowest Volvo V50 diesels is 5,89 l/100 km = 40 mpg. Sample:
> 43 drivers."

> Becuase 43 drivers AVERAGED 40 mpg he must not get 50 mpg?

Well... actually yes.

I do not believe in miracles. If so many drivers average 40 mpg, then saying that a car in question gets 50 mpg is simply a falsification. The most probable mpg an arbitrarily chosen driver will get is 40.

Nearly every time I discuss a hybrid-vs-diesel case with a diesel fan, he overestimates the mpg.

Yes, you can get 50 mpg in this Volvo. By doing serious hypermiling. In the same way you can get 70 mpg in a Prius.


> You are comparing 2 very different segment of cars.
> Comparing a luxury sedan and SUV to sub compact cars
> is a bit much. Europeans DO prefer manual transmissions
> on small engined cars.

Why should they prefer it??

My point is:

1. Some of them cannot afford a car fitted with an automatic transmission.
2. Autoboxes on small cars are usually of poor quality, low numer of gears, so-so programming, increased fuel consumption, decreased performance.
3. Autoboxes in small cars are of limited availability, paired with some engines/version only.

But if expensive cars all come with autoboxes, there has to be a reason, don't you think?

What's more, small cars are more likely to be driven in towns. In stop-and-go traffic. With much higher number of necessary gear changes. So these vehicles needs autotrannies even more than cars used more frequently on long distance journeys.

Proof? Most city buses come with autobox as standard. Most coaches have a manual.


Bill

> So the $2,000 extra a small turbodiesel engine
> & after-treatment system would cost you here in the U.S.
> could be half that in Europe.

You need particulate matter reduction only in Europe as for now (late 2009 to 2010, when Euro 5 becomes valid).

You need this + NOx reduction in the USA.


> The premium for a gasoline-electric full hybrid
> system is much more (IIRC, J.D. Power's recent
> poll pegged it at $5,000)

European 2010 Prius and Insight prices suggest diesel premium is higher than hybrid premium over ordinary gassers.

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downtoearth 4:18PM (6/19/2009)
I'm not a diesel fan actually, I hate diesel engines... But in that case
When I say that I get 50 mpg its because I do get that value on the display. I drive at an average of 55 mph not doing any hypermiling.
Average== a1+a2+a3+.....+an/n
so... for example if someone gets 10 l/100 and another gets 5l/100 the average is equal to 7.5. But you know that...
Btw i would really like to know where did you get your mileage numbers, 'cause i cant find any site that has that information.
The only site that I've found was this http://www.carpages.co.uk/guide/volvo/volvo-v50-1.6d-drive-se-5dr.asp

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