REPORT: Toyota's first fuel cell vehicle will be priced "shockingly" low
by Sebastian Blanco on Jul 20th 2009 at 7:56PM 
How low is "shockingly" low?
According to an article in Ward's Auto (subs req'd), when Toyota puts its first production hydrogen fuel cell vehicle up for sale in 2015, the price will be so low it will "shock" the U.S. auto industry. Justin Ward, advanced powertrain program manager-Toyota Technical Center, said that economies of scale will be in place to drop the price down to something that is surprisingly low. Ward didn't name the shocking price, but did say that Toyota is pleased where its fuel cell technology is today. The automaker fully expects the next iterations of the fuel cell technology – currently used in the FCHV – to be ready to meet all customer demands of range and operating temperature, and it will bring the cars to market whether the refueling infrastructure is in place or not. Toyota is currenlty testing customer behavior with hydrogen cars by seeing how people adapt from a standard Prius to a plug-in Prius to a fuel-cell prototype vehicle.
Right now, customers can lease a Honda FCX Clarity in Southern California for $600 a month. How low will the 2015 price have to be to shock you?
[Source: Ward's Auto (subs req'd)]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 5)
unni 8:29PM (7/20/2009)
$15k for a 2010 prius equivalent one. I will be shocked if its below this price.
Till that i wont be shocked because its only electric motor, fuel cell stack,ultracapacotor , hydrogen storage/helper systems and a CPU.
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polo 9:23PM (7/21/2009)
Yep.
"Justin Ward, advanced powertrain program manager-Toyota Technical Center, said that economies of scale will be in place to drop the price down to something that is surprisingly low."
Really? Because thats the exact opposite of what Toyota says about EVs. They delayed the plug-in Prius specifically until other automakers started their own EV production and industry wide demand lowered the cost to manufacture the batteries....yet now they're saying they can achieve "economies of scale" instantaneously out the door on a brand new tech with maybe half-a-dozen possible fuel stations in the entire country? Are they planning on selling 500K their first year out? With near-zero infastructure to fuel them?.....at a time when EVs (which should be on the streets in the hundreds of thousands by then) will have gone down significantly in price??
Lets say they pull a miracle off and have one for $89K....in what world is that a viable strategy for a car company to pursuing when by then they could be selling EVs with battery packs that will be significantly cheaper than anything out today? A large cheap battery pack makes fuel cells completely WORTHLESS...and they are guaranteed to get cheaper and have longer range...so why waste the money. How much stock do those oil companies own in Toyota?
Chris M 9:11PM (7/20/2009)
Considering that they are currently leasing the FCHV for $7,000 per month, I sincerely doubt the price will be all that low. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they announced a delay in 2014 "to solve some problems", like unaffordable prices.
I'd be surprised if they get the price below a quarter million, and truly shocked if they get the price below $100,000
Of course, they might try the "Riversimple" approach, making it a tiny underpowered limited range 2 seater! But in that case, the "shock" would be the underwhelming performance in an overpriced NEV.
This is just another attempt to spread FUD and discourage people from buying plug-ins now. But it could backfire badly, causing people to delay purchasing a new car and NOT purchase a Toyota hybrid, thinking a cheaper H2FC car was imminent. Of course, when the H2FC price turns out to still be "shockingly high" in 2015, it will be Toyota suffering from "shockingly low" sales.
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george 1:22AM (7/31/2009)
I'm almost sure that you're a Tesla salesman..... but you drive a Prius....
anyways, I posted this a couple times for you..
The recent paper that USCAR (a collaboration by the "Big 3" ) put together, points out, over and over how fuel cell cars are the ultimate goal and how other battery cars simply cannot compete with them........ go figure, you should tell them how stupid they are!!!
http://www.uscar.org/guest/article_view.php?articles_id=312
here's a great quote from the paper: "Even at present levels, onboard H2 storage system costs are significantly less than that of the batteries used in EVs and plug-in hybrids."
Seriously, check it out...... and think about how much smarter these people are than you!! ha ha ha ha!!!!
In a few years, your thousands of anti-hydrogen comments will look silly.....
Boxman 9:15PM (7/20/2009)
Even if Toyota could make an FCEV at an affordable price, you still have the problem of infrastructure. At least with an EV, you can be reasonably assured of finding an outlet somewhere, even if you have to strike a bargain with some local hotel owner or something. There's no city or town in this country that doesn't have electricity.
But with hydrogen, you'd better limit your driving to Dearborn, Michigan or Los Angeles unless you want to get stranded. And since hydrogen infrastructure is so complex and expensive, it won't be spreading across the United States anytime soon.
Worse still, the very limited ranges of fuel-cell vehicles (vs gasoline) makes an infrastructure even more critical (an infrastructure which I would remind everyone does not currently exist).
To say nothing of the wisdom of using a power-storage device with only 1/5 the efficiency of batteries...
So even excluding the cost factor, hydrogen is still a loser compared to every other alternative (including the old-fashioned internal combustion engine).
In any case, we all know Toyota's full of **** as their promises to dramatically reduce fuel-cell costs will be forgotten by 2015. Ain't gonna happen.
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floorman56 8:49AM (7/21/2009)
At least with an EV, you can be reasonably assured of finding an outlet somewhere, even if you have to strike a bargain with some local hotel owner or something. There's no city or town in this country that doesn't have electricity.
But not the RIGHT plug or power. Remember if you are not charging with at lease 220 it's going to take you forever
But with hydrogen, you'd better limit your driving to Dearborn, Michigan or Los Angeles unless you want to get stranded.
What ever happened to the " Most people only drive 40 miles a day" that I hear when I bring up the range limits on EV's ?
CaramelZappa 9:32PM (7/20/2009)
"and it will bring the cars to market whether the refueling infrastructure is in place or not."
And people talk about refueling infrastructure with ev's being a problem? At least if you run out of juice in an ev, there are plugs every block, and you can wait a bit to recharge. If you're out of juice and not within range of a hydrogen equipped station, your car NEEDS to get towed.
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ShaunneyCakes 9:54PM (7/20/2009)
Ok, lets be honest, both Hydrogen and Electric (in mass numbers) are years away but obviously EV will be here first. Hydrogen has more potential then Electric to be adopted by America as the next fuel since the refill process is relatively quick and works the same way.
Right now, both are too expensive, of course hydrogen is WAY too expensive, but if they can get hydrogen to the point where EV and Hydrogen are actually competing with each other, then we will make the switch faster. Both EV's and Hydrogen vehicles have problems to them, but if they are competing with each other, we may someday see a Hydrogen car under 30,000 and an AFFORDABLE highway speed EV with a range of more then 100 miles in cold weather.
This is why I support the development of Hydrogen, and anyone who cares about the future of automotive technology should as well. I prefer EV, but recharge time is still WAY too long, and not everyone will be able to shell out another 3,000 to get a rapid charger installed.
alex.aumann 11:27PM (7/20/2009)
For people driving hydrogen cars places that have no hydrogen stations... one possibility is to make your own H2 gas from water and electricity. This advanced technology was first demonstrated in 1789.
While this is an expensive way to make hydrogen, it might be a lifesaver until there is hydrogen infrastructure. That way you can drive anywhere you have access to electricity and water. I can imagine people getting to their hotel, plugging in their car, and then lugging 5 gallon water jugs to their car, so it can fill itself up.
I wouldn't be surprised if the fuel cell FCX cost the same as a 2010 Prius-- $20k for one that's stripped down. I think the marketer is figuring the shock will be versus the price of the Volt-- around $40k.
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Serge 11:36AM (7/21/2009)
For that to work you need two things:
1. On-board electrolyzer (under 1K) and at least 5,000 psi hydrogen compressor (a natural gas compressor, like FuelMaker Phill (~5K) won't do).
2. A LOT of electricity and/or TIME. Note, that you loose at least 60% of initial energy on electrolysis, compression and in the fuel-cell. So, if you can charge an EV from a regular socket at a rate of 4 miles per hour (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/technical/2931-charging-mc120.html), make that 1.6 miles per hour for a hydrogen fuel-cell ER-EV.
jake 9:46PM (7/20/2009)
Below $100-50k, I would be surprised. That's when it's close to matching EVs on pricing. Below $20k, I would believe despite their infrastructure disadvantage, it does have a chance of becoming a hit with consumers (same price point EVs will have to hit to become the majority of the market). Of course this price better not have leasing attached to it.
Of course the projections for hydrogen vehicle cost in the future seems pretty optimistic anyways. It's estimated to cost only about $8000 extra over a normal car given mass production of fuel cells. So far I don't see any indication this is true, but I suppose if Toyota can do it for that price then I would be more willing to give hydrogen a chance.
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Chris M 7:34PM (7/21/2009)
That "only $8,000 more" estimate isn't very accurate, considering that the H2 storage alone costs more than that. But it is a prime example of the Hydrogen Hype maintenance, if they were realistic, the hydrogen programs would be cancelled.
Mike!!ekiM 9:51PM (7/20/2009)
A planet with 7 Billion People, and China and India rapidly Industrializing, means Hydrogen is DEAD.
I thought Toyota management would have been smart enough to comprehend this.
The only way Toyota could be stupid enough to continue building this is if it's getting a Briefcase full of $1000's, every month from Exxon. There's No Conspiracy like Business Conspiracy.
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Mike!!ekiM 9:56PM (7/20/2009)
When you though GM management was Dumb for placing all their bets on 7 ( SUV's ) at the Roulette wheel, and developing pretty much nothing else, Toyota shows we need to make room in the Dumb Club. Toyota makes the opposite mistake, wasting limited resources pursuing a DEAD END.
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Rick 10:02PM (7/20/2009)
Maybe they have an alternate plan - like a BEV car with a small built in fuel cell range extender.
Small hydrogen tank that will double your 200 mile battery range if you need it.
hey - c'mon - you know you want one of those!
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Rick 10:07PM (7/20/2009)
One way to sell the car ata shockingly low price would be to sell it separately from the fuel cell system which could be leased
In that case the car costs $15,000 and the fuel cell is leased for $1000. / month
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Sean 10:53PM (7/20/2009)
$60k would shock me. I'm betting that they will drastically reduce cost so that it costs between $200k and $100k by 2015.
The following information is taken from the European FUEL CELL FORUM: http://www.efcf.com/reports/E04.pdf
"30% losses for water make-up and electrolysis: factor 0.70
10% losses for compression of hydrogen: factor 0.90
10% losses for distribution of gaseous hydrogen: factor 0.90
3% losses for hydrogen transfer: factor 0.97
50% for conversion to electricity in fuel cells: factor 0.50
10% parasitic losses for the hydrogen fuel cell system: factor 0.90
10% electric losses in the drive-train between battery and wheels: factor 0.90
The "power-plant-to-wheel" efficiency of a fuel cell vehicle operated on compressed
gaseous hydrogen will be in the vicinity of 22%."
Thats 22% compared to 90% for a BEV (same 10% lossas last step in FCV), so what is the advantage of hydrogen? You don't need a large battery. The battery in the Tesla Roadster weighs half a ton and costs $25,000 with a range of aproximatly 200 miles.
So are you willing to drop from 90% to 22% and pay a half million dollars for a fuel cell + tanks in order to save several hundred pounds of weight and increase range from 200 to 400 miles? Obviously no one is willing to pay a half million dollars for that, but fuel cell prices will come down. So if fuel cells come down in price by 2 orders of magnitude then they will cost the same amount as batteries an weigh much less ... right?
Thats assuming that batteries don't have any improvements in the same period of time. Hydrogen fuel cells will never be able to compete with batteries. They are fundamentally inferior, but they make up for it by costing more.
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ShaunneyCakes 11:21PM (7/20/2009)
Remember that you are thinking about this mathematically. The average consumer will not. The average consumer wants to stop and fill up, and they will pay thousands extra for the security of knowing that if they are low on juice, that there is gonna be somewhere to quickly fill up. There is a reason why EV's are not popular now and there was no demand for them in the 90's and it was not JUST because of low gas prices, but people are stuck in their ways... they want to be able to fill their car up in less then 10 minutes. The only people who hate hydrogen are people in the know, such as you and me, the average consumer just sees another car which can be filled up at any station giving hydrogen and be good for the environment while doing it.
Hydrogen also offers more potential in BIG vehicles such as Buses, Semi's and Tractors. There are electric semi's out there but all have low speed and range and are limited to small areas like sea ports.
Hydrogen is at a disadvantage in the technology, but it has a HUGE advantage in the fact that it is the same old thing... you stop and fill up and leave.
sac 1:57AM (7/21/2009)
@ShaunneyCakes
"The average consumer wants to stop and fill up, and they will pay thousands extra for the security of knowing that if they are low on juice, that there is gonna be somewhere to quickly fill up."
YOU'RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION!!
There ISN'T somewhere to quickly fill up and there NEVER WILL BE! It doesn't matter if they are capable of filling up quickly because the infrastructure will never be there!
andrichrose 6:36AM (7/21/2009)
Sean ,
I think you have hit the nail on the head , 22% efficiency is
about the US fleet average on the present gasoline , adopting H2
would keep the status quo about where the majority of car
manufacturers would like to keep it .
What a lot of people forget is that fuel cell cars have a large battery
under the floor anyway to enable regen-braking and also to allow
a lot smaller fuel cell to be used .
At the moment Fuel cells are darned expensive , the type used in the
clarity ,which is about as small as you would want go in a medium
sized family car costs around $200,000 dollars , this is due in part to
amount of precious metals used in its construction ,( and believe me
I do not think the price of platinum is going to get cheaper in the next
few years ) , and also due to the complexity .
Several customers who leased the older Honda fuel-cell cars reported
that when a malfunctioning car was taken in for repair, the car often
disappeared and was replaced with a new one , which would indicate
that the problem was to large to repair on a dealer level .
If the failure with the car is actually the fuel cell( which at this present
time seems to have a life span of some 50,000 miles ) who is going
to pay for it when it goes wrong ! the dealer ? , the manufacturer ?
certainly the customer will not be able to afford it , and what sort of
dealer is going to be able to afford to put a couple of these items
on his spares shelves ?
There are so many problems with H2 as a road fuel I think in the
long run it will be overtaken by BEV . As the price of large format
Lithium cells drops dramatically and battery swapping becomes
the norm these fuel-cell cars will make there way back to their
respective company museums , to be marveled at by the next
generation !