Is Nissan making a mistake with an overly optimistic range estimate for the LEAF?
2010 Nissan Leaf EV - Click above for hi-res image gallery
Let's say right up front that we don't know for sure if Nissan's 100 mile range estimate for its new LEAF electric car is overly optimistic or not. No one outside of Nissan has actually tested the car to verify it one way or the other. However, based on what we do know, it's not unreasonable to expect the range to fall short of 100 miles in real world use.
Ex-Tesla SVP Marketing Darryl Siry has real world knowledge of the correlation between the EPA city range estimate that Nissan is quoting and reality. He has previously penned missives on the dangers of EV makers over-selling and under-delivering on range and his warning still holds true.
It's certainly possible that Nissan has created a particularly efficient EV that can actually get 100 miles per charge in normal, everyday use. At this point, we don't know much about Nissan's control strategy for the car and the battery. Based on what we do know, there is good reason to be skeptical. The LEAF's 24 kWh battery pack is considerably smaller than the 35 kWh pack in the MINI E, a small car that struggles to get 100 miles. Of course, the MINI is far from optimized. The Tesla Roadster gets about 220 miles in similar testing from a 53 kWh pack. Tesla, however, is using almost the full capacity of its pack to get its range and that is expected to yield a shortened lifespan for the pack (approx. five-to-six years). If Nissan follows the same path with the LEAF pack, the type of customers it is aiming for will not be pleased with having to replace the pack prematurely. Nissan
Only time will tell what Nissan is really planning on doing. However, as one of the leading proponents of EVs with very high-volume plans in the near term, Nissan should be wary of over-promising.
Gallery: 2010 Nissan Leaf EV
[Source: Darryl Siry]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
dg 12:11PM (8/03/2009)
I think they can do it. They might need to do some tweaking of number (incuding pack size, and release dates) but I think they can get pretty close.
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Lad 1:50PM (8/03/2009)
This is only negative speculation by the competition; lets wait for the facts and the impartial road tests. The car is built for commuters and there is no question Nissan will have a fix for those who drive further than 100 miles. One other thing: if one signs up to lease the batteries, from "Better Place," etc., the lease comes with a two minute battery swapping capability.
My only problem with the car is you don't need a shifter in the middle of the console. You only need a forward/reverse button on the dash; a variable size cup holder would be a welcome feature in its place.
Darryl 4:57PM (8/03/2009)
@Lad - it isn't speculation. Nissan has stated that they expect a range of 100 miles on the LA4 cycle (a.k.a. EPA City a.k.a. UDDS). On my blog I show precisely what this means, and make the point that most people don't drive that slowly so most people will see a significantly shorter range than they advertise.
Also - I think this is an issue for the health of the overall EV industry. If you support the adoption of EVs you should want the range estimates to be more in line with what customers will actually experience. This goes for all manufacturers, not just Nissan.
Darryl
polo 5:46PM (8/03/2009)
"Darryl - it isn't speculation."
Yes it is. Your are using your own contrived formulas and estimates, not the actual car with its unique, proprietary drive train and battery chemistry. You are SPECULATING. And the final figures - sure to be released when the car is commercially available - may be revised up or down. Until then, at least admit that you are speculating because you don't have the actual car to test. Knowing what track its tested on is absolutely not the same thing. Thanks.
Polo
ShaunneyCakes 6:47PM (8/03/2009)
@ Polo,
Polo, do you work for Nissan or something, your posts are totally tilted towards this car. You are pretty much attacking anyone who criticizes it.
dg 7:45PM (8/03/2009)
I don't think he's attacking anyone. Just seems like he wants to get the truth, which is that you're speculating. Speculating with what they call an "educated guess", bit speculating nonetheless.
Onward EV's!
Have a nice day, boys.
Tohe 3:55AM (8/04/2009)
Heh Polo is always on attack mode. Still this argument remains speculation at this point.
why not the LS2LS7? 12:25PM (8/03/2009)
See my comments in the other article on AB. Nissan is quoting a figure from a test that spends less than 50% of its time over 30mph (LA4/LA-4 mode, also called UDDS or urban dynamometer driving schedule).
So yeah, they are. If you somehow have an urban driving cycle that goes 100 miles per day (like an urban delivery vehicle), you can see 100 miles. The rest of people who use 100 miles in a day usually hit the freeway for a significant portion of it and won't be able to see 100 miles range.
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polo 2:53PM (8/03/2009)
Lets wait for the final results. Pure speculation for the sake of it is what fools and frauds do, and judging from your other posts, you aren't saying much anyway.
why not the LS2LS7? 12:34AM (8/04/2009)
Nissan said LA4 mode. I looked up LA4 mode and posted the data. It is a test cycle that will produce figures that are overly optimistic for the average person's use. That isn't pure speculation.
ShaunneyCakes 12:29PM (8/03/2009)
I am wondering about the range myself. I live in Wilmington, DE and we have somewhat frigid winters of about 5-15 degrees. What will the range be in such temps.? Anything below 100 miles seems to be obsurd to spend the amount of money for which they will ask.
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polo 2:55PM (8/03/2009)
Aren't you the guy who claimed to make 300mile+ daily trips. Is it a coincidence your posts always seem skewed against EVs?
and LOL at -15 being "frigid". Around here schools don't even close unless its below 25, and we had to walk to school.
ShaunneyCakes 4:09PM (8/03/2009)
I am not against electric cars, I am against Eco-Snobs who only consider themselves when they make an opinion on any given technologies. Believe it or not, a 60 mile EV for $25,000 will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER be practical REGARDLESS of how small one's commute may be. The eco-snob will say that you "can have two cars" or "rent" another, but that is not the purpose of a car. The purpose of a car is to take you anywhere you need to go. I work 5 miles from work, a sub 100 mile EV would be fine for my commute, but my elderly parents live over 60 miles away and this EV would not get me there and back without diing... PERIOD, my Prius does get me there and a Plug-in Hybrid, Range Extended EV, or a H2 car WOULD get me there. Any EV with 200 plus mile range costs WAY TOO much like the 50,000 Tesla Model S.
polo 5:39PM (8/03/2009)
-"I am not against electric cars, I am against Eco-Snobs who only consider themselves when they make an opinion on any given technologies."
Thanks for outting yourself as just another buffoon who goes on blogs attacking invisible people he feels slighted him.
-"Believe it or not, a 60 mile EV for $25,000 will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER be practical REGARDLESS of how small one's commute may be."
I guess its a good thing no car company is releasing a 60mile range EV, and this EV gets 100miles.
"The eco-snob will say that you "can have two cars" or "rent" another, but that is not the purpose of a car. The purpose of a car is to take you anywhere you need to go.
Most families already do have two cars, and many do rent cars for long trips, so we're not talking about any huge leaps in buyer habits are we. No. You just want every EV to make your personal criteria for your own unique situation, and anyone who defers from that is an "eco-snob".
"I work 5 miles from work, a sub 100 mile EV would be fine for my commute, but my elderly parents live over 60 miles away and this EV would not get me there and back without diing..."
So catch a bus. I don't think your grandparents will notice. Or better yet, wait for something that meets your needs. This car will work just fine for me and the majority of car buyers.
"PERIOD, my Prius does get me there and a Plug-in Hybrid, Range Extended EV, or a H2 car WOULD get me there. Any EV with 200 plus mile range costs WAY TOO much like the 50,000 Tesla Model S."
The Model S is priced and optioned to compete with cars like Mercedes and BMW, not your Prius. If its out of your price range, oh well, not all cars will be. Oh, and there isn't an H2 car in existence that "will get you there" if the Model S is out of your price range.
ShaunneyCakes 6:45PM (8/03/2009)
@ Polo
See, you just keep making up excuses. You are only thinking about yourself, not everyone else. You praise a 100 Mile EV, when any car in the world has that range beat by nearly 3 times, I have said before, I am not against EVs.
If you have to dignify the technology by making excuses such as "rent a car" or "take a bus" for longer ranges, then you are just another eco-snob who is defending their limited point-of-view. EV is not the only technology aiming to end the reign of oil and it is NOT the most efficient. Eco-snobs pretend that the problems do not exist, but I am not naive, they have their issues and some are just as difficult to overcome as the price for an H2 vehicle. The big one being range for cost... a 300+ mile range ice engine car can be purchased for 12,000. An EV will have to match this for at least under 30,000 to be competitive... PERIOD. People will not except something inferior to what they have.
You may be ok with the EV, and to be honest, I do not mind the range, but I am not looking for a vehicle which will only sell 25-50k a year, I want something that will completely force the new age of automotive technology, and whatever that may be, it will have to AT LEAST match the performance of current cars.
I have confidence in these people that they will someday make an EV with 300+ mile range, but face it, unless gas hits $6 a gallon (not likely in the next 4 years) than a 100 mile range car (probably 60 miles in the winter) will never be more than a niche product.
If you are just going to post another close-minded response, don't bother.
skierpage 8:16PM (8/03/2009)
"NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER be practical "
Please realize *you* are the one making sweeping generalizations for the entire populace. As polo said, most households have multiple cars so a low-range car is practical for some of them, as in several million households.
"[EV] is NOT the most efficient."
What is more efficient? Well-to-wheel, nothing else comes close.
axio.matik 11:54AM (8/04/2009)
hahahahahaha, -"Believe it or not, a 60 mile EV for $25,000 will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER be practical REGARDLESS of how small one's commute may be."
What a ludicrous statement. That's like saying a 2-door car will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever by practical. If you are single and have one car, sure, an EV with a 60-100 mile range won't suit you. But if you are married, and both you and your spouse have a car, it is certainly easy enough for millions of families to replace one of their cars with an electric car, as long as one of them has a daily commute safely under the range. In fact, millions of families do this already. The wife drives a minivan or SUV since she hauls the kids around more, while the husband drives a small commuter car. The small commuter car isn't practical for hauling around a family of 5, but that's why one of them drives the minivan/suv. So replace the commuter car with an EV.
Yanquetino 12:33PM (8/03/2009)
This dashboard photo in your gallery shows 85 km driven and 132 km to go:
http://bit.ly/4MIdu
That totals 115+ miles. I have a hard time imagining that Nissan would go so far as to fake that photo.
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The inconvenient treehugger 4:30AM (8/04/2009)
Ok, I played with the numbers a bit and it seems the time taken (2 h 38 mins) to drive 85 km indicates ~32 km/h average speed. Mind you, it is easy to reach the claimed range with that but it is a different story when you try to average around 80+ km/h and the wind resistance kicks in and takes up kWs.
For example to a slippery C-segment car the effect of wind resistance at 120 km/h is approximately 16 kW. When you add rolling resistance, vehicle mass, and electric consumption (lights, ac, radio etc) you get a range of ~145 km (91 miles) at 120 km/h. And that is assuming you deplete the 24 kWh from 100 to 0 %.
I am with Darryl on this one: people will be disappointed. I know I would be. Same goes for Mitsubishi i MiEV with the claimed 160 km with 16 kWh.
moa 6:50AM (8/04/2009)
"Ok, I played with the numbers a bit and it seems the time taken (2 h 38 mins) to drive 85 km indicates ~32 km/h average speed."
it is quite "normal" average speed for city traffic. my daily average ( 20km one way to work, about 50% city, 50% suburbs, no freeways) is between 30 and 40km/h. and that's not obeying speed limits ;]