Vinod Khosla stands by lithium ion batteries are "overhyped" statement; sees money to be made
Sun Microsystems founder Vinod Khosla has not been shy about making his bets on the automotive future known. Wherever there has been an opportunity to invest in or promote advanced ethanol, it seems Khosla was there, giving it at least a cursory look (see, for example, Coskata, which GM also invested in). He even described his "big biofuels bet" back in 2006.Considering his millions of
Khosla has now taken the time to clarify what he meant by "overhyped." Turns out, the venture capitalist sees "plenty of money to be made in both batteries and biofuels," but just doesn't think they have the disruptive power to really move the world into a new, low-carbon future. They're not the Black Swan he's looking for. Radical changes in battery pricing (down to about $250/kWh instead of the more common $1,000/kWh we hear today), construction and manufacturing need to come online before batteries become "truly competitive." Companies like Sakti3, Seeo and – maybe – EESTOR (he makes it clear he's skeptical of EESTOR) represent the type or research that needs to be done in advanced batteries. Khoslae is ready to throw money into research for new batteries, he just doesn't think we should get too excited. Yet.
[Source: Grist]
Photo credit: James Duncan Davidson/O'Reilly Media, Inc.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
paulwesterberg 3:13PM (8/10/2009)
venture capitalist investor heavily leveraged in old technology: electric vehicles are not exciting, don't invest your money in these newfangled start-up companies, the technology is not ready.
venture capitalist investor after making new investments: Electric vehicles are the wave of the future, they will change everything, now is the time to buy.
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Tim 7:45PM (8/10/2009)
He'd be a fool NOT to stump for his own investments just like T-Boone Pickens stumps for natural gas.
Only time will tell if Mr. Khosla is correct or not.
XYZ 1:09AM (8/11/2009)
Vinod Koshla: "No, no, don't invest in EV companies...not yet! ...hmm...hmmm... I have to buy my shares first!"
Mike Z 3:14PM (8/10/2009)
I read his article and I think he makes an interesting point: Based on his analysis he does not see the current manufacturing processes and design of li-ion batteries as being capable of achieving the required price point to spark a 'revolution'.
More interestingly, he brings up new Lead-Acid batteries. which I do see as playing a bigger part in Start-Stop, Hybrid, and PHEV vehicles in the future.
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polo 10:34PM (8/10/2009)
well DUH! We all know the batteries are expensive now...but what about after 5 years of global mass production and charging infrastructure development? When those prices do down these things will have an incredible momentum.
Nick P. 3:23PM (8/10/2009)
OK, so a guy who has heavily invested in bio-fuels doesn't like EVs. Shocking!
He should forward his concerns to the venture capitalists who have invested in Tesla, Fisker and Coda. Let's see what they say...
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Mike Z 3:30PM (8/10/2009)
He stated in the article that he was an investor in the battery company Seeo
jpm 3:32PM (8/10/2009)
anyone remember when this guy was IN LOVE with ethanol from corn? what happened to that.........
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augustus 3:32PM (8/10/2009)
He disagrees with the consensus- flog him mercilessly!
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Zeph 3:51PM (8/10/2009)
My personal opinion, from someone well read on the technologies, is that the best possible solution at the moment would be a biofuel generator using MYT engine technology (google it) powering electric motors, with minimal batteries and something like a 100km or 60 mile range. This would, again in my opinion, be the optimal point between flexibility and technical elegance using current technology. I'm sure there's more advanced stuff shelved, but this technology would be enough to solve environmental issues. It would be a biofuel extended range electrical car, but using a much more elegant ICE, smallish battery pack and a environmentally neutral fuel (if the farming side is done right of course).
I would also make the electrics work both ways, so if by chance there is a power outage the cars can generate electricity for the house and give it fuel capacity for continuous power generation for at least 12 hours at maximum drain (which could perhaps run 3 or 4 houses). The MYT engine is so small that it could even be made with redundancy when needed, with two of them per car.
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Matt 4:16PM (8/10/2009)
I looked into this one time, and it appears they've never actually fired it up to test it. All they've done so far is power it with air. I'll believe it when I see it in action, not just some flash video or compressed air test.
Zeph 4:23PM (8/10/2009)
And so you should, I've never seen it in action myself and know that there are many hoaxes out there.
I have seen the schematics and animations and the overall concept just makes a lot of sense, wouldn't you agree? I can't really see why it would not work better than a conventional piston engine.
wincros 3:59PM (8/10/2009)
I thought lithium ion was a possible answer, but I am getting increasingly skeptical based on experience with my lap top. Lifetime of the first one was about two years. Less than a year for the second one. $129 for a new one is bad enough, but replacing a lithium ion pack for a car every year would kill the idea of an electric car.
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Serge 4:17PM (8/10/2009)
Cheepo batteries and improper design/care (positioning a battery next to a CPU that heats up to temps over 40*C) will shorten the lifespan significantly.
Matt 4:20PM (8/10/2009)
I dono man, I've got a Li-ion weed wacker and it's got more power than any power tool I've ever owned, and the charge lasts WAY longer. I don't think my lawn mowing device is anywhere near as advanced as these car batteries are going to be, but I've been very impressed so far. Consider my hopes up :)
Martin 4:10PM (8/10/2009)
I think you all should read up on the history of Chile, and find out where the US will be sending troops next to protect our lithium addiction.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107407.html?pageno=1
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paulwesterberg 5:12PM (8/10/2009)
Actually Bolivia has the largest lithium ore reserves. They have a democratically elected government.
Brent 4:20PM (8/10/2009)
If you ask me, we need to make the electric lightweight platforms well, and then make it also adaptable, lets say recalibratable. They should make these electric cars in such a way, that when the battery technology advances, the new battery can be installed, and the new torque/figures can be fed into the cars computer. The batteries will make a leap in the next two years(says who?, Me), so they need to design the cars to handle and even be made for an upgrade/update. MIT has come out with some leaps, ASU, so has oxford and some technology schools in europe. We will have 4-8 times quicker charging batteries, with less deterioration, with more efficient computers, and with double to triple the current kWh compacity. That is, if the scientists that be work together. I feel we're heading towards a noticable precipus and the pressure will spring these advances worldwide. Then all we need is sustainable alternative powering, and our race might not extinct all the other organisms in the next 100 years, lol.
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Serge 4:22PM (8/10/2009)
"Radical changes in battery pricing (down to about $250/kWh instead of the more common $1,000/kWh we hear today)"
$440/Kwh retail. I'm sure a better price can be had at high volume http://www.evcomponents.com/ProductDetails.asp?ProductCode=TS-LFP400AHA
But yeah, Lithium Ion is probably not the Black Swan a.k.a Holy Grail battery, Lithium Air is http://www.aist.go.jp/aist_e/latest_research/2009/20090727/20090727.html
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Jack Rickard 5:49PM (8/10/2009)
I'm currently paying $322 per kWh for the very latest chemistry. I see electric car detractors all the time decrying the cost of it all. As they aren't paying any of it, their alligator tears don't impress me. Not doing any basic research doesn't impress me either.
Right now I figure LiFePo4 are between 3.5 and 4 times as expensive as lead acid. Their rated life is 10x. They are the immediate future.
Advanced ultracapacitors (EEStore) and Lithium Air batteries are even more promising, but probably even more in the future. I'm installing batteries TODAY and it is more or less working.
I'd love it if they were $20 per cell. But it will be quite awhile I'm afraid. Still, I see this $1000 number all the time from posers pretending to be knowledgeable. A basic price check isn't that hard.
Jack Rickard
http://evtv.me