Honda CEO: People will embrace fuel cells when they realize battery limits
Here at the Tokyo Motor Show, Honda introduced its first plug-in vehicle concept in many years in the shape of the EV-N. However, during the press conference, new CEO Takanobu Ito shared the main stage with only two cars, the FCX Clarity and the new CR-Z concept. The EV-N and a plug-in Cub scooter were off on a smaller side stage. During a Q&A session with media this evening, Ito explained the company's strategy on electric vehicles.
According to Ito, who assumed the top post at the company last June, hydrogen fuel cells are still the best long term strategy for vehicles. The only reason Honda is developing a plug-in vehicle right now is to meet California zero-emission vehicle mandates coming up in about five years. Because there appears to be little movement on establishing additional hydrogen filling stations in the U.S. right now, the company would be unable to meet the standards with a fuel cell vehicle. Thus a small urban commuter BEV is the best option for the short term.
Asked what it would take to get a hydrogen filling network going, especially with a current administration that is openly hostile, Ito responded "I wish I knew" but that hydrogen must be promoted to governments and "we must be patient." He went on to say that while batteries are evolving, he didn't believe they would ever get to a stage where their performance would be acceptable as the primary energy carrier. Instead he said that "people would become more aware of the limits of BEVs" and come back to hydrogen fuel cells.
[Source: Honda]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 6)
ziv 1:15PM (10/22/2009)
Lets see, batteries are around $400 a kWh, and need to see their price reduced by 50% to make ER-EVs practical and 75% to make BEV's practical. Size and weight are reasonable now but reductions will increase ER-EV and BEV adoption.
Hydrogen fuel cells have to have price reductions of 99% to get the price of a fuel cell down from $400,000 to around $4000. And even then, if you get a fuel cell that is comparable to an ICE in expense, you have to use Hydrogen generated at great expense, with huge loss between production and the pump, and even more losses while the hydrogen is in the tank of the car.
The only advantage that Hydrogen has is that the Chevron, BP, Lukoil, Exxon et. al. are the only ones big enough to manufacture it, and they have a network of fueling stations in place. I would rather generate my own electricity with a wind generator or photovoltaic cell on my property, shunt it into the grid and use the grid to power my car. Eventually, I would consider going off the grid entirely, probably after the first generation of ER-EV batteries go up for sale, used, but still with 8 to 10 kWh capacity in them.
I cannot believe that Honda is stupid enough to allow this guy to say stuff like this in public.
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Boyprodigy1 1:27PM (10/22/2009)
I completely agree. Its much more practical to wait for batteries to come down in price (Even that 75% reduction is doable) than to wait for fuel cells. We simply need to ramp up production.
Ghen 1:42PM (10/22/2009)
Totally agree. On one hand we have a technology that is available now, but at a premium of maybe $10k and can be "fueled" anywhere there is an electrical outlet. On the other hand there is a technology that is no way available unless you want to spend an extra $60-100k for no good reason and even if they got the price down could only be fueled at a corporate center that currently robs us blind for old tech, let alone new and exciting tech? Give me a break Honda!
Patrick 2:56PM (10/22/2009)
Hydrogen vehicles when they are for sale will be comparable to gasoline/hybrid vehicles--they're not going to cost $100,000. http://bit.ly/otbqp
It's been pointed out correctly that batteries and fuel cells need to come down in price. That's why efforts for both need to continue until they get to the marketplace where consumers can decide. Both hydrogen and batteries have advantages and they work better together than one of them does alone.
wincros 3:04PM (10/22/2009)
Toyota has said some similar stuff even while developing electric cars. It seems to be a Japanese auto business practice.
The current Motor Trend on the newstand has a big article on the Nissan Leaf with some information I had not seen before. They did not test it. Price is $25,000 in the article and $27,500 in the side box. 100 mile range. 87 mph top speed. There is some interesting stuff about the shape designed to reduce the noise from the wind inside the car, unmasked by the sound of an engine, rather than best Cd. On sale 2010. It will be interesting to see their sales in comparison to their fuel cell competitors.
Boyprodigy1 3:35PM (10/22/2009)
@wincros
What competitors? The Honda FCX? Doesn't the vehicle have to be in the same price range to be considered a competitor?
BobR 4:18PM (10/22/2009)
Come on everybody, keep up with the facts! Today's fuel cell technology has already reached the point in 2009 where a fuel cell engine is cost competitive with the bigger gasoline engines, and costs are declining rapidly. http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/9012_fuel_cell_system_cost.pdf
Even MIT, which is not exactly a bastion of fuel cell fervor, says fuel cell cars will cost less than battery cars. http://web.mit.edu/sloan-auto-lab/research/ beforeh2/files/kromer_electric_powertrains.pdf.
Hydrogen costs less than $1 a gallon equivalent at the refinery today. That means hydrogen is competitive dollar for dollar in some locations today, at the pump.
Best of all people will want to buy fuel cell cars because they are real, full function, full size vehicles. I will concede battery cars have their niche. But if everyone wanted a BEV why would we be pushing plug-in hybrids so aggressively? There is plenty of room in the marketplace for all these vehicles to have their turn at bat and we will all be educated by the market's response. Until then how about a little less knee-jerking?
xyz 8:06PM (10/22/2009)
@BobR
You are not believing what you are talking????
Look, I won't repeat what has been said so many times that it grows out of my ears. Do some research (here is a good place), get back and then start talking.
Have a great day!
Chris M 12:11AM (10/23/2009)
BobR: The actual retail price of H2 fuel is about $8 to $10 per Kg, with 1 Kg of H2 being the energy equivalent of 1 gallon of gasoline. Don't know where you got that "$1 a gallon equivalent" from, even the H2 enthusiasts estimate a future price of more than twice that amount, from the cheapest source, steam reformed natural gas.
Those estimates of "amazingly low" fuel cell prices "if mass produced" are highly suspect. The actual cost of actual H2 fuel cells currently on the market are at least 50 times greater than those "mass produced" estimates, and most of the cost is in the materials needed. Mass production cannot reduce costs below the cost of materials needed.
As for "real, full function, full size vehicles", Tesla Motors has already shown the prototype Model S sedan with room for 7, luggage space front and back, a range up to 300 miles, and rapid charging - that is "full sized" enough for most families. Also, there are "plug-ins" planned or in production for everything from 2 seat commuters up to freight hauling semi-trucks. EVs aren't limited to "golf cart" status anymore.
Andy 1:20AM (10/23/2009)
Don't forget fast charge batteries....
If you can top off a 50 KWh battery in 15mins. Whats the big advantage of a 5 min hydrogen refill? If you can even refill your hydrogen tank in that time.
Low cost, 200 W/Kg batteries with comprehensive swap or fast charge infrastructure is more realistic than low cost fuel cells with a comprehensive hydrogen infrastructure.
He forgets to point out you would only be "refilling" a BEV 100 on the 5 or 6 extended range trips on average you make every year.
axel 4:11AM (10/23/2009)
The price of the batteries is not the main problem in the long term. The problem is that no known type of battery will meet the requirements for a family car. Lithium chemistry is not going to improve vastly in the next ten years. If you want to know more about current development of advanced Li-batteries check out this Nature article:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7179/full/451652a.html
Quoting from the conclusion:
"Fame and fortune certainly await anyone who can come up with a viable alternative to fossil fuels. Furthermore, it is difficult to see how the performance gap between the internal-combustion engine and lithium-ion batteries will be filled using only new battery technology; other approaches, such as fuel cells, will be needed, but here a complete overhaul of present systems will probably be required."
Derek 12:03PM (10/24/2009)
No, batteries are not there yet. Untill I can charge a 550 kWh battery in the time it takes me to pump 15 gal of gasoline then batteries are only feasible for those who have more than one vehicle.
Chris M 1:23AM (10/28/2009)
Axel, are you and that nature article author really that un-informed? The Tesla Model S fits most average family requirement, and does it with existing LiIon batteries. Of course, you could throw in some unreasonable requirements if you have an unreasonable family.
More importantly, there are several possible battery formulations such as Li-S and Li-Air that have already demonstrated energy density several times greater than existing LiIon, improvements from 5x to 20x current LiIon energy density should be possible. That should satisfy all but the most unbelievably unreasonable families.
Derek: Why would you need to charge a 2,000+ mile range battery pack in just 10 minutes? Do you really expect to drive clear across the country non-stop, recharge in 10 minutes just to drive all the way back non-stop? As for me, if I were taking a cross country drive, I wouldn't mind stopping every 200 to 300 miles for a 45 minute break - long enough to recharge a 300 mile capacity 80 Kwh battery pack.
What I'm really curious about is where you would get a gasser that could go 2,000 on just 15 gallons of gasoline?
Joeviocoe 5:57AM (10/28/2009)
Um... Hey guys... Why isn't anyone talking about that 400lb gorilla over there?
The TOWABLE range-extender!!!
Rent it for your 5 to 10 extended range trips that the average person takes a year. AC Propulsion has already done it, it works. The only thing car manufacturers need to do is configure the electronics to allow charging from the plug while in motion. Not hard considering regen braking already allows charging while driving.
Make it diesel or flex fuel or whatever.
EV owners already know that range anxiety of being stranded is a fear that goes away as soon as you begin to get used to the EV. Even Tesla Roadster drivers who drive spiritedly enough to only get 150 miles per charge don't worry about getting stranded because with modern GPS, you always know how many miles it will take to make the trip.
Joeviocoe 6:14AM (10/28/2009)
Two principles that my undergraduate in Engineering has taught me above all else:
1) KISS (Keep It Simple Superfluous-word)
A hydrogen infrastructure is way too much to spend time and money on JUST to provide people with the quick fill up times that people are accustomed to. This is an automobile revolution folks. Change will be made on the manufacturing floor. But you CANNOT EXPECT NOT TO CHANGE SOME OF YOUR HABITS. The days of not paying attention to fuel/range gauges is OVER! People WILL have to plan trips over 100 miles now! Big freaking whoop.
Adding on-board range extenders are not necessary just to alleviate peoples unwarranted fear. This adds unneeded complexity to a simple drivetrain. Kiss it goodbye.
2) PERFECT IS THE ENEMY OF GOOD
People (who read popular mechanics way too much) are spoiled on the future. They want flying cars now. Just like that girl Veruca from Wonka's Factory, they want everything perfect and they want it now. Or they claim it to be UNFEASIBLE in the market.
Faster charge times will come. Longer lasting batteries will come. The beauty of BEVs are that when new battery technology comes out, you don't need to redesign or even buy another car. And for longer trips, rent a towable ICE range-extender and just deal with it. It will be cheap, convenient, and handle all of your over-100-mile trips. The long trips are usually done on the highway so don't give me any guff about towing off-road.
But right now, BEVs coming out by 2012 are good. Not perfect, but stomping your feet and holding your breath for perfect is no way to conduct the much needed revolution.
letstakeawalk 1:19PM (10/22/2009)
No matter how good battery tech will be, there will always be someone who wants a range extender added to their BEV. Hydrogen fuel cells make great range extenders.
It's that simple.
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Serge 1:30PM (10/22/2009)
I agree that EVs with range extenders have great market potential. However, hydrogen fuel cells are the worst kind of range extender. Fuel efficient Atkinson cycle gasoline/flex-fuel, diesel, micro-turbines are much cheaper and can use established fuel infrastructure *today*. These are the short- and mid-term solutions. Direct methanol (or ethanol) fuel cells (about which I posted below) have long-term potential. Hydrogen fuel-cells are the best solution for weight-critical applications (space); terrestrial applications have different priorities.
Matt234 1:43PM (10/22/2009)
Fuel cells could make a great range extender if they could be made cheaply. *Hydrogen* fuel cells, not so much. There are many problems, as others have noted. Most important to me personally is safety. I would seriously consider moving if my neighbor got a car with hydrogen stored at 10,000 psi. How about pushing development of *fuel cells* instead of *Hydrogen fuel cells*?
polo 2:34PM (10/22/2009)
"No matter how good battery tech will be, there will always be someone who wants a range extender added to their BEV. "
There's a couple huge, gaping holes in your logic:
1) Why not gasoline? It won't add $300,000+ to the price and average person won't have to go cross-country for a fill-up.
2) Battery tech is going to get smaller and cheaper, very fast. 300+ ranges will be standard in 10 years, with the option of upgrading or swapping for longer ranges - and thats a very conservative estimate. Fact is, you can expand the range with more battery modules for significantly less than it would cost to add a fuel cell, and the same will be even more true in the future than it is now.
Mike!!ekiM 4:38PM (10/22/2009)
Gas makes a good range extender. With NO Conversion Necessary to Hydrogen.