PEV 2009: David Cole explains why adding plugs to cars is anything but simple
David Cole is the chairman of the Center For Automotive Research. As such, he is deeply connected to the industry and played a big role in organizing the Business of Plugging In expo in Detroit last week. We've talked with Cole in the past, and caught up with him at the expo to hear what the Michigan-centric conference can tell us about the future of plug-in vehicles in the mitten state.There are six big companies with "significant" R&D facilities in Michigan – the three big domestic manufacturers plus Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai – and Honda has a major facility in Ohio. On top of this, there are about 300 tech centers for suppliers in the area, so it makes sense to try and bring these players together at a conference. Adding a plug to the vehicle means involving a larger cast of characters than has been common in the past, and new relationships must be developed. This is not easy to do.
"People tended to trivialize the complexity of the industry because it's so easy to drive cars," Cole said. Not true, he said, not true at all. Read more of his thoughts after the jump.
Even though there are many plug-in vehicle start-ups in California, Michigan's automotive history made it the logical place for the federal government to spend most of the $2.4 billion it gave out earlier this year to advance plug-in vehicles. The Midwest's excellence in manufacturing was one factor in Michigan getting the lion's share of the money, and Cole said "It would be only natural" to have the money go where automotive research and manufacturing is already located.
Money from other sources, though, doesn't always easily flow to Michigan. International investors, for example, don't all have a good picture of how the auto industry in Michigan operates, Cole said. "The picture of Michigan as a traditional union state is about 20 years out of date," he said. The reality is that the relationship between labor and management is quite good, but outside investors and companies might not know this.
Another unknown is how the change in the parts used in an internal combustion engine to those used in plug-in vehicles will affect suppliers. While the interior and chassis designs of most vehicles will remain pretty much the same, powertrains are undergoing a huge evolution. Transmissions won't be the same, ICEs will be much simpler and then there's the battery. Cole said that people have overemphasized the battery compared to other advances, but there is still a lot of work that can be done on the packs. Today, for example, only about 25 percent of the mass of the battery is used to store the energy (the rest is made up of control and cooling units, among other things). From a theoretical standpoint, Cole said, batteries could one day be about 60 percent energy storage by mass. "Not you're talking about a collapse in the size of the battery and all the benefits that occur."
How suppliers and OEMs manage the changes that are happening now and coming soon is "a very tough business decision," Cole said. "As you go into electrification, now you're bringing in lots of other suppliers that have not been historic suppliers for the auto industry as well. It's going to be a very, very interesting period, to say the least."
Listen to Cole here (or download here, 9 min, 3MB):
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Serge 7:01PM (10/26/2009)
Somebody else would have done it already if it was simple. Time to roll up the sleeves and make it happen.
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Boyprodigy1 7:09PM (10/26/2009)
I hate to sound like i am bashing an expert, but this guy is an idiot.
" Transmissions won't be the same, ICEs will be much simpler"
Right since a single gear transmission with a fixed gear ratio and no clutch is so much more complex than an ICE transmission
"and then there's the battery"
You mean the one that we already have developed and only really need to make a little bit better? Sure cost is a factor but everyone knows that it will go down.
From the sounds of it he also doesn't take into account that there will be breakthroughs in battery technology; that they will get better, smaller, faster to recharge, and cheaper.
So much for car experts...
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ziv 7:29PM (10/26/2009)
Boyprodigy, I kind of see your point but I also think that making a large amount of BEV's is going to be very difficult to do at a price point anywhere near ICE vehicles for the next 5-10 years. The pack management systems have gotten much better, but the price per kWh is only slowly getting better. I pulled a price per kWh graph from around 2003 and they had the price down from $1000 to around $450 then, which is around $50 more than where it is now. I would love to find a better link that shows what the price per kWh has done in the past 10 years, but couldn't find one. The power steering units, the heater and ac units, the transmissions, are all produced in small numbers for now, and without the economies of scale, their prices are high. It is a perverse problem, we can't sell a lot of BEV's because they will cost so much, but we need to sell a lot to get the price down so the masses can afford them.
Making a successful, affordable ER-EV or BEV isn't rocket science, it is much more difficult than that!
Boyprodigy1 7:43PM (10/26/2009)
@ziv
I don't actually agree with you. You just brought up complexities of a business model that would tie down a heavily beurocratic automaker (Read: Too many execs). So as a business person, it might be complicated. From an engineering standpoint, however, it is actually very simple. Why do you think people are able to make fully funcional EV's in their garages?
jake 8:04PM (10/26/2009)
I think you might be taking his statement out of context. He might be talking about ICE in the context of plug-in hybrids, not necessarily vs EVs.
And on batteries he makes a good point that there are a lot of improvements that can be made even not talking about chemistry advances and just packaging (25% vs 60% of mass being used to store energy).
ziv 8:24PM (10/26/2009)
If people could make a quality product that stacks up against Hyundai, let alone a Honda, and it was powered by domestically produced electricity rather than foreign oil, and they could sell it for less than $30,000, they would be able to get rich quick selling them to people like me. We want that type of car, but they aren't there. Not for $30,000. Not with either 200 mile range or an ER-EV. This is not easy. Saying it is doesn't make it so.
What I brought up about the cost of electric intent parts aren't complexities brought on by bureaucracy, they are financial facts that a part time car builder can ignore because they are building one or two cars. If you are selling cars for a profit, not for love of the idea, you need to take this into account. If a plethora of execs is the problem, Fisker and Tesla would be building cars as fast as GM, but Tesla has yet to build 800 cars. The reason they aren't building more is because they can't build them for less than $100,000 yet. The S model will change that if they can build it for the advertised price, but not by much.
Tohe 4:15AM (10/27/2009)
@ziv
"If people could make a quality product that stacks up against Hyundai, let alone a Honda, and it was powered by domestically produced electricity rather than foreign oil, and they could sell it for less than $30,000, they would be able to..."
That is the dream
@Boyprodigy1
Don't get caught in the rhetoric. Notice how Mr. Cole is overly concerned with suppliers. What do suppliers supply? You said "parts" ding ding ding! See simplicity is the main problem here, how do we make something simple complex enough to turn a profit beyond the sale of the car? how do we sustain the industry as we know it? change is a scary thing.
Boyprodigy1 11:07AM (10/27/2009)
You make a fair point about the size of the battery packs. But they need to take some lessons from other industries. Lets ask ourselves "Who is a multi billion dollar industry who banks on the key component of cooling electronics and keeping them compact?" And the answer, as any nerd would know, is the computer industry.
As for the dream, that will happen eventually. For now though i could live with an aptera 2e. It would function for me most of the time. As for road trips i could always bum rides from my friends. I am sure that they would be willing to drive me everywhere else if i were willing to do all of the city driving (90% of the driving) in my ultra efficient EV.
On a previous post you could see me quoted saying that fisker and tesla make a sport out of making the larger auto makers look bad. Its guys like this guy who make it easy for them. The reason i say that, is that it wont be long until aptera has a 300 mile range on their 2e. And then they will be able to introduce a larger less extravagant model (I personally like the way it looks but thats just me).
On a final note (this is me agreeing with you guys all the way), of course there are improvements to be made. Its not just in the battery pack either. I am sure that lighter more efficient AC inverters could be developed too. But these vehicles are makeable and affordable now and they are just whining the entire way, which in my opinion gives me merit to call them idiots.
Unknown 11:28PM (10/26/2009)
How in the hell is all this spam getting into this group lately ???
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monica 12:20AM (10/27/2009)
this idiot is so 20 years out of date
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monica 1:06AM (10/27/2009)
this idiot is so 20 years out of date
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junkfield 11:28AM (10/27/2009)
I doubt that he's an idiot, but he does completely miss the mark on one point (as do the big 3), It is in-fact the body/chassis that needs the most development, and it will likely be Toyota who will lead the way once again with their research dollars into carbon-fiber (1/X for example) since it the inevitable future. The big 3 will miss this bus because they lack such funding, they will do as they have done, and gamble on their current investments in stamped steel.
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