STUDY: Market share for plug ins, hybrids set for huge growth by 2013
Reports that hybrid vehicles would continue to be popular are nothing new and seem to be coming true. But a new study by NextGen Research paints a picture that might be a bit too rosy. Maybe.
Components used in electric and hybrid vehicles will see a huge growth spurt in the coming years, NextGen found. Vehicle battery modules, for example, are expected to go from about $1.3 billion last year to $3.7 billion by 2014. For comparison, read these recent posts discussing these sorts of components with David Cole (difficult but positive) and Guido Reinking (expensive and negative).
The growth is expected to come from a huge increase in the sales of plug-ins and hybrids. NextGen predicts that, in 2013, these vehicle types will make up eight percent of the new vehicle sales in the U.S., compared to something like two percent last year. In numbers, NextAuto sees hybrids climbing from sales of 550,000 last year to two million in 2013, with plug-in vehicles going from 10,000 last year to 350,000. An overall four-fold increase in the four years? That'd be something.
[Source: NextGen Research via Green Car Advisor]
Photo by mujitra (´･ω･). Licensed under Creative Commons license 2.0.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3PeaceSweet 3:40PM (10/29/2009)
Once you have a PHEV you can upgrade the battery capacity in the future with an eventual aim to replacing the ICE entirely when battery tech and fast charging improves.
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paulwesterberg 3:59PM (10/29/2009)
It would be nice if battery packs were configurable and battery cells were standardized. Then you could buy some extra energizer or duracell or a123 or samsung cells and put them in the boot or on a trailer for a long trip. If a few cells went bad you wouldn't have to replace the whole pack(should never happen with proper management, but who knows.)
But this is unlikely to happen unless mandated by legislation(see phone chargers in europe).
Car manufacturers would rather sell you a brand new car every 5 years rather than have you go and upgrade your range yourself for a few thousand dollars. See planned obsolescence.
Andy 9:00PM (10/29/2009)
I like your vision Paul, but I agree it's unlikely to happen.
Just on a technical note. The spec's of the replaceable batteries would have to be really tight. Mixing batteries with different capacity and SOC might be a problem.
Matt234 3:46PM (10/29/2009)
I just look forward to some electrifying competition, and having any plug-in at all available to purchase. 2010-2020 is going to be an awesome decade. Of course I said that about the last decade, but I guess it has been pretty cool.
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Laurens 4:12PM (10/29/2009)
In Europe, diesel has a 50% market share, so the concept of paying extra for fuel economy, has proven itself. But the hybrid premium may be overdoing it a bit.
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Mark Kiernan 7:22AM (10/30/2009)
I am sure people will ditch diesel when EVs become more mainstream. I drive a diesel now and my next car (2012ish) will be either a PHEV or an BEV.
xyz 8:57PM (10/29/2009)
This is all incorrect as in 2015 we will all be buying hydrogen cars! Just wait....
[/ironic]
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Paul 9:59PM (10/29/2009)
Why do these people continue to believe they are Nostradamus.
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ivor.pdx 11:03PM (10/29/2009)
I saw my first plug-in Prius this morning... I believe it was a test vehicle for our local utility company here in Portland OR. The plug was just above the rear bumper at the left side. Nice to see one on the road finally!
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