Report: Japan's fuel cell market could grow 99-fold by 2025

The Big Japanese Three automakers are all working on fuel cell vehicles. This is no surprise, especially to anyone who remembers that, between 1998 and 2004, two out of every three fuel cell patent applications were filed by Japanese companies. What might be a surprise is how big the domestic fuel cell market there might be in fifteen years.
Japan Today reports that the Fuji-Keizai Group research firm has estimated there will be a 99-fold increase in the Japanese domestic fuel cell market between fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2025. 99 fold? That's ginormous. No, wait, it's bigger than ginormous. In money terms, it means going from 16.3 billion yen in fiscal 2009 to fuel cell demand that "may reach 990 billion yen for automobiles and 507 billion yen for housing in fiscal 2025." A big uptick will happen around 2018, which is when Fuji-Keizai predicts fuel cell vehicles will be "in competition with hybrid gasoline-electric and electric cars." There's a lot of unknowns to this story, but the numbers are ginormous, indeed. Thanks to Roy B. for the tip!
[Source: Japan Today]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Ernie 3:59PM (3/11/2010)
Hmm. Let's do the math on that:
Number of automakers who are currently selling hydrogen cars to consumers: 0
Number of hydrogen cars in the hands of consumers: 0
Size of the current market: 0
99 x 0 = 0.
Even if you were to include the what, 300? 500? cars currently being used in "test fleets" and other beta-testing circumstances, a very small number times 99 is still a very small number. And 15 years is a long time.
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Nozferat 4:55PM (3/11/2010)
They love people like you.
While you're sitting there with your thumb your behind and making fun of them, they'll be busy making the next generation of transports which you will end up happily buying.
Keep up the closed minded stupidity and zero foresight for the future.
Dan Frederiksen 6:44PM (3/11/2010)
indeed. I don't think there is even 300 world wide.
even the clarity was scheduled for something like 50 cars per year.
it'll be interesting to see if some keep pushing it or if they eventually give up.
maybe we'll see an REEV with an option of fuel cell for cruise instead of ICE. that might sort of work. if they can get the cost down. then it doesn't matter so much that it's not more efficient than ICE. then it would be sort of cool to still run silent. storage will remain an issue but wiith a large tank and settle for 100km range on hydrogen it might just be technically bearable.
liquid fuel cell however.. that could work
and nozferat, please. automakers as leading innovators? yeah right. and republicans are honest. and pigs run airlines
Nozferat 11:04PM (3/11/2010)
So in other words unless it gives you instant gratification, it's not worth pursuing.
Got it.
Chris M 2:11AM (3/12/2010)
The last count I'd heard was 318 H2FCVs, but there were a few more proposed, so it's probably about 330 now. 99 times 330 is 32,670 which isn't that many, Toyota sells more Prii than that in just 6 months.
But wait! that isn't just fuel cell vehicles, but all fuel cells, including stationary ones for power generation. I suspect it also isn't limited to the H2 fueled ones either, so maybe there will be huge sales of fuel cell cars - but fueled by a cheaper and much easier to store fuel like methanol or zinc, not H2.
letstakeawalk 3:09PM (3/11/2010)
Interesting predictions. Japan is leading the way with stationary fuel cells, and they are investing in a substantial hydrogen infrastructure.
http://www.fuelcells.org/info/FCCJvision.pdf
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polo 12:50AM (3/12/2010)
Thats great. They connect right to the existing gas line in the home. No problems there. The problems start piling up when you try to put these things in cars. Then you run into horrific efficiency, storage, transport, fueling, and production cost problems. Keep these things in people's basements (are we gonna need hydrogen detectors to make sure they don't leak and blow up the neighborhood?). Leave BEVs for the roads.
letstakeawalk 12:39PM (3/13/2010)
Polo
Hydrogen storage takes up less volume and less mass than batteries, which means they get greater range.
There is no issue with transporting hydrogen, it is transported via pipeline everyday with no issues whatsoever. It can also be conveniently transported in tanks of various sizes, or it can be made on-site.
Hydrogen refueling takes only minutes, and has been done safely for decades without issue. It's no more dangerous or difficult than filling a standard gas tank.
Stack cost is becoming less of an issue as new materials and assembly processes are being introduced. Hyundai shows an example:
"The South Korean company said the Tucson/ix35 FCEV incorporates several key innovations over the last-generation Tucson FCEV that will enable Hyundai to meet its goal of producing thousands of FCEVs by 2012:
* adoption of metallic - versus terribly costly graphite - separators in the fuel cell stack;
* advances in modularization, which simplifies and slashed the cost of final assembly;
* adoption of a 21-kilowatt lithium-ion polymer battery pack in place of pricier super capacitors;
* adoption of an induction motor instead of a permanent magnet-type motor for cost benefits.
Hyundai says it plans to begin manufacturing FCEVs in the low thousands and delivering them to fleet customers in South Korea in 2012."
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/03/2010-geneva-auto-show-hyundai-unveils-its-tucsonix35-hydrogen-fuel-cell-ev.html
In short, Polo, you are an idiot. Try to keep up, that's what this blog is about. If you actually read the articles about developments regarding H2 PEM FCVs, you wouldn't look like such an idiot with your outdated fears and misconceptions. I really don't have to reply to your trolling, but I genuinely want you to try to learn something... FCVs are coming, whether you like them or not.
neptronix 3:20PM (3/11/2010)
Hm, interesting. Sounds like they've picked their alternative energy fanboy affiliation :p
I know Honda has publicly stated that they won't have Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles available commercially 'till 2020.
Certainly a long way off. Seems like a very long term bet they're making.
I'm thinking that BEV or magic pony dust power will come by and beat hydrogen at this pace.
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letstakeawalk 3:45PM (3/11/2010)
I think you misunderstood Honda's statement.
Honda's commercial introduction of the Clarity FCX has already occurred. Their goal has been to continue to increase production of the Clarity, first to have 200 on the road by 2015, and then to have them in mass production by 2020. By making continual improvements to a good platform, this seems very achievable. New tanks (or other storage improvements) can be coupled with gradual improvements to the FC stack, while the basic architecture and design remains static. The futuristic styling of the Clarity lends itself well to a long life.
"The biggest issue is that we cannot make so many stacks," said Fujimoto [FCX Clarity's chief project manager]. "Everyday there's progress." Honda is continuing to add production capability, while at the same time making continual improvements to the FC stack in order to reduce cost.
Of course, these are just predictions. We can only wait to see how the future unfolds.
Ernie 4:03PM (3/11/2010)
Yes, except that magic ponies are pretty rare, and the miles-per-pound-of-magic-pony-dust of the average car isn't very good, so we'd have a peak-magic-pony-dust crisis in no time at all.
:)
neptronix 4:03PM (3/11/2010)
I don't consider having a handful of FCVs in the hands of SoCal celebrities to be very worthwhile though. What i was trying to say is that mass production being so far off makes hydrogen a big bet.
There's also that issue of generating and storing the stuff. There are just so many hurdles.
It's a bigger bet than GM's EV1 was back in the 90's - at least we knew we could safely & easily store, produce, and utilize electric technology.
I think what alternative energy we chose to develop is almost a religious matter. Here in the USA we like electric and gasoline/ethanol.. in Europe they like diesel and electric.. Japan seems more hot on Hydrogen than anything else. At least Toyota gets it right with their hybrids.
Nozferat 11:12PM (3/11/2010)
So since there are so many hurdles, we should bury our heads in the sand and not even try. I wonder where we'd be with the technologies you only too happily accept today.
It took us almost 50 years to break the sound barrier...and that was accidental. At one point it was even thought impossible. I'm sure your close counterpart back then somewhere on this planet was whining and bitching about how we can't do this or that just like you are now.
polo 1:16AM (3/12/2010)
--Honda's commercial introduction of the Clarity FCX has already occurred."
No it hasn't. What they have out doesn't even amount to a test fleet, let alone "commercial production" and not one is actually for sale. Its all show pony. Honda's real focus in on stationary hydrogen stations, not car fuel cells. They're just being smart and slapping these in cars to get free subsidies and grant money from Japan, the US, and whoever else they can.
--By making continual improvements to a good platform, this seems very achievable.
Yesss! Somebody should tell VW this genius secret to make a million-dollar car consumer affordable in just 10 short years.
Step 1: ramp up production until you reach 200 in five years
Step 2: wait five more years
Step 3: ???
Step 4: profit!!!
We only need to bring the cost of the Honda Clarity FCX down by 98.5% (from its current $2million per car) to get it to price of $30K (an ok price for an "affordable" car). Using this same method the $1.6Million Bugatti Veyron can be sold for $24K by 2020!!
neptronix 2:09AM (3/12/2010)
Well, to be totally fair, that $2 million is just an estimate based on how much the entire FCX program cost Honda. I would imagine 500k-1mil per car & the rest is R&D, promotion, other gabbledegook.
Yeah that's still pretty crazy considering that GM's cars cost them $80k-$100k way back when.
And also that battery innovation was driven by market demand for gadgets and laptops. The only thing funding hydrogen is those hopeful who think they'll see a benefit out of it in decades.
paulwesterberg 3:35PM (3/11/2010)
If you sold 1 vehicle and then you turn around and sold 100 then you have a 99 fold increase, but you still haven't sold many vehicles.
Generating billions and billions in sales may look good in some bean-counters spreadsheet but good luck getting people to pay that much money.
Japan as an Island with a very good high speed rail system has less need for fuel cells range extenders because BEVs will be able to cover the distance to & from train stations for most people.
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Nozferat 11:08PM (3/11/2010)
Size has nothing to do with it. We can develop an infrastructure to cater to most inner city motorists just fine. This BS argument about size is merely a lame excuse.
If people actually cared in Los Angeles for public transport, it would be built and built properly...so that it caters to people in such a way where it becomes practical and easy to get around.
Bill 3:51PM (3/11/2010)
There are a lot of problems with fuel cells but these are all being worked on, not only the different aspects of fuel cells themselves but also the production, transportation and storage of hydrogen, for example a student at RPI has developed a doped graphite that at normal temperature and pressure that holds more hydrogen per volume than 10000psi compressed hydrogen- as to what combination of battery, fuel cell, gen set, solar cell, electrified road will win out I am agnostic- I only have belief that in the end electricity will flow through a highly efficient and power dense electric motor to provide our motion.
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neptronix 4:08PM (3/11/2010)
Yeah, it's just too hard to say what will win out, but i personally am more likely to root for something i'll see come to fruition in my lifetime.. :p
Throwback 3:51PM (3/11/2010)
I would like to hear from someone who lives/lived in Japan. What do the people think about fuel cells vs BEVs? My understanding is Japan has long had very expensive gas, narrow streets, and generally short commutes yet BEVs do not seem to be popular. I would think this scenario would be perfect for BEVs to flourish, yet hybrids seem to rule. Can someone explain why? Is it because there are few multiple car families so the one car has to be able to do it all?
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