Nissan Leaf

If ABI Research is correct, our monthly math fest that is the green car sales report will soon take longer to add up. That's because ABI's recent report says that almost 2.4 million battery-electric vehicles will be sold worldwide in 2020, estimating that EV sales (excluding plug-in hybrids and extended-range plug-ins) will jump 48 percent a year through the end of the decade. That means that the estimated 150,000 EVs expected to be sold globally this year will increase to 2.36 million in 2020, with Asia Pacific representing the fastest regional growth rate.

While EV sales have been what ABI calls "disappointing" so far, governmental support in the form of subsidies, infrastructure funding and concessions such as free parking, solo driving in high-occupancy vehicle lanes and congestion-zone toll exemptions will start boosting EV adoption during the next few years. The broader adoption of wireless charging and smart-grid usage will also move things along for the battery-electric driving set.

While automakers continue to add EV models, just two – the Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Model S – are sold in the US with any sort of substantial numbers. Through the first nine months of the year, Nissan tripled year-earlier sales to 16,076 units. And while Tesla doesn't report monthly sales, the Model S moved about 9,900 units during the first half of the year. The company is expected to release third-quarter results early next month. Check out ABI's press release below.
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Full Electric Vehicle Shipments to Exceed 2 Million by 2020

London, United Kingdom - 08 Oct 2013

According to ABI Research, the number of full electric vehicles (EV) shipping yearly will increase from 150,000 in 2013 to 2.36 million in 2020, representing a CAGR of 48%. Asia-Pacific will exhibit the strongest growth, driven by mounting pollution issues in its many megacities; however, true mass-market uptake will only start happening in the next decade.

"Overall, EV sales have been disappointing so far due to a lack of choice and perceived personal benefits, high purchase prices, and most importantly, consumer anxiety about range, maximum speed, recharging times, and the lack of public charging infrastructure. However, with many car OEMs recently dropping prices and offering more choice and improved performance, full electric vehicles are on the verge of leaving their eco niche of environmentally aware and socially responsible buyers, illustrated by car OEMs such as BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen investing heavily in electrification. Importantly, a range of emerging automotive technologies such as carbon-fiber materials, wireless in-car networking technologies, active safety including pedestrian detection and autonomous driving, connectivity, car sharing, and smart grid demand response features will support the electric automotive revolution as all new paradigms are mutually reinforcing each other," comments VP and practice director, Dominique Bonte.

However, the role of governments in supporting the case of EVs through tax rebates and subsidies, stimulating the roll out of public charging infrastructure, exempting EVs from toll in congestion zones, allowing EVs on High Occupancy lanes, providing free parking, and mandating very aggressive emission standards will remain critical during the remainder of this decade.

Ultimately the connected, autonomous EV will form an intrinsic part of the IoT with vehicles relying on and contributing to the emergence of intelligent road infrastructure including wireless charging, smart grids, digital homes and remote healthcare while realizing the promise of safe, convenient, efficient, affordable and sustainable transportation.

ABI Research's new "Full Electric Vehicles" study covers electrification market trends and drivers, EV technologies including crowd and cloud charging, main players and EVs on the market, and forecast for shipments, EV vehicle base, revenues and public charging infrastructure. It also describes the role of EVs in the future IoT. The study is part of the Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Service.

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research's worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 70+ research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.