Will nickel-based batteries harm hybrid resale prices?
In pretty much all of the past markets where nickel-based batteries were replaced by lithium-based batteries, the resale value of the nickel-based models takes a sharp nosedive when the lithium models hit the market. Will this same thing happen with hybrid automobiles equipped with the older battery technology? It's hard to say, considering that power tools and laptops are so different than cars, but it may be a cause for concern if some car makers continue pressing on with nickel technology while others jump forward with lithium technology. Read over this article from the Washington Post. The author seems to jump from EPA mileage statistics straight through to resale value... very different topics to be sure. We'd rather have newer and better batteries to be sure, but if the older units continue to function well, what difference does it make?
[Source: Washington Post]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Karkus 6:47PM (10/23/2007)
That's such a bad article, I'm not even sure why you gave credibility to it by bringing it up here.
First of all, the guy can't even do simple math. "the Toyota Prius, the drop will be 20 to 30 percent" - the drop for 60 to 48 is only 20%, and 51-to 45 is only 12%.
Also, if he can't achieve the old EPA estimates, he just a bad driver (there's only a few cars where the EPA was too high). Tailgating, speeding, racing from stoplight to stoplight - MOST americans do these things all the time, and that's why their MPG sucks. The EPA is just lowering the bar (kind of like grade inflation) - it just makes people feel better for their poor behavior.
2. Even when Li cars finally come out (they keep getting delayed), the current generation hybrids using NiMH will still be getting way better MPG than the average car, which will still be a regular old ICE car. I don't see how/why their value would suddenly go down. When Li batteries finally come out, it will take years to ramp up production to the point where even a few % of cars on the road have those batteries. Until Li cars have a significant market share (and are proven superior), it won't affect older hybrid prices much at all.
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Chris M 1:12AM (10/24/2007)
Basically, the article writer was rehashing the old hybrid myth of "The big expensive batteries will fail in a few years, causing a big drop in resale value". Well, hybrids have been on sale in the US for 7 years (and longer in Japan), and those NiMH batteries have been proven to be durable, and with proper battery management should last the life of the car. Battery failure has not been a problem.
Furthermore, for at least 6 years the depreciation on hybrids have been much less than average. Even used 2001 Prius have less than 50% depreciation, rare in a car that old. That myth has been discredited.
Just like all the other hybrid myth-mongers, that writer is using rumors, lies and irrational fears to try to squelch the sale of hybrids. I'd like to know why.
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GreyFlcn 2:35AM (10/24/2007)
Even if it were an issue.
If battery prices drop through the floor, can't you just replace the batteries on the cheap?
Presto, just like new, and even better.
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Phil L. 6:24AM (10/24/2007)
GreyFlcn hits it:
Unlike the cell phone/iPod/laptop market, it will be worth it to modify a hybrid car to take advantage of new battery technology.
It won't be as straightforward as dropping in new Li-ion batteries to replace that old NiMH pack: There will need to be controller modifications to handle capacity and charge/discharge profile differences, possible thermal safety modifications, and a host of other problems to address. But, in the grand scheme of things, it will likely be worth it for the manufacturer to create such an upgrade path. Plus there's the ever-present hacker community.
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