Report: global market for PHEV will reach 130,000 by 2015
In seven years, how many plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will be sold worldwide? It's funny I ask that because there's a report by Frost & Sullivan predicting sales of 130,000 PHEVs worldwide by 2015. The report, titled Global Market Analysis of Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, includes strategic recommendations, technology roadmaps, adoption timescales, market size and forecasts, detailed breakdown by regions and OEMs for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ... and it also costs a little under ten grand.
I did not buy it but I think I will take a shot at trying to figure out how they got to 130,000 PHEVs. GM will have sold the Volt for four years and they say tens of thousands a year (40,000). GM also say they will sell their Saturn Vue plug-ins which should be high volume as well (30,000). Five years after releasing only to fleets, Toyota should start to ramp up sales (30,000). Add in a few plug-ins hybrids from Ford and a few other major volume auto makers (30,000) and you get to that worldwide units PHEVs sold number of 130,000 in 2015.
[Source: Frost & Sullivan]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Dad 8:03PM (2/07/2008)
"sales of 130,000 PHEVs worldwide by 2015"
A number with no impact at all. When you consider that in the USA alone 16 million new cars are sold each year, this is a "joke".
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Lad 2:59AM (2/08/2008)
I don't believe this at all! The only way this will happen is if the market is controlled by someone like The AAM or if the number of batteries are limited by Oil companies snapping up the patents. Is there something not being said here?
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Lascelles Linton 5:46AM (2/08/2008)
Dad, Lad, What's so sad and unbelievable about it? Sure you could count the converters, even a few hybrids from China but they won't churn out high numbers and it does not seem that sad to me. Beats the historical adoption rate of hybrids. Also, we are just talking about PHEV here. Not full electrics or hybrids. Counting Project Better Place, mild hybrid tech, etc, they should be much higher. Unless there is something special about PHEVs...
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Tim 11:34AM (2/08/2008)
Forecasters are almost NEVER right and MUCH can change in the next few years.
Example: American is preparing for WAR with Iran. This war will cause oil prices will to go well over $200/bbl. And no, it doesn’t matter whether McCain, Obama or Clinton II is in the white house. Their bankers and backers want war profits.
Another example: Cheaper and better battery and Solar PV tech.
MUCH can and will happen to drive demand. Now, supply is another matter…
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Wayne 8:40AM (9/01/2008)
130,000 seems pritty low TBH
Although alot depends on price lets say there no extra tax relief to keep that simple.
what will the price be compared to lets say a Toyota Prius "this will be in the same market"?
Year
Sales
1997 (Dec)
323
1998
17,653
1999
15,243
2000
19,011
2001
29,459
2002
28,083
2003
43,162
2004
125,742
2005
175,157
2006
185,589
2007
281,265
If these figure are carried forword to 2015 "at current rates of growth" between about 400,000 - 600,000 a year "i didn't do this as a % increase but as a trend increase % increase will give silly numbers that will never happen".
So as long as the New PHEV cars are in the same price range as the Toyota Prius and are introduced in 2010 as promised by GM there could be around 2,000,000 - 3,000,000 sold.
That would trully would start to make a diffrence i am optomistic but it depends on price.
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