Just how long until we see the end of the internal combustion engine?
Photo by bigfootmedia. Licensed under Creative Commons license 2.0.
This fall, the Advanced Automotive Electronics (AAE) group in the UK will host AAE2008, a one-day conference about vehicle electronics system design and development. While that may not sound like something totally in line with greener driving, there will be at least one presentation that would likely attract the attention of our regular readers: Barry Shrier, CEO of Liberty Electric Cars (these guys), is going to predict the end of the ICE.
Unsurprisingly for a CEO of an electric car conversion company, Shrier expects that internal combustion engines will be replaced on a wide scale by electric motors. His talk will focus on how legislation, customer awareness and technology all impact EV adoption. Shrier's is not the only speech that we'd like to sit in on. There will be a panel on "Environmental constraints – help or hindrance to automotive electronic design," and 14 other technical seminars.
[Source: AAE2008]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
T Herber 5:55PM (7/09/2008)
I wholeheartedly agree! Within the next ten years EVs will be superior to ICEVs in every measureable way, and when that happens the major auto makers will begin to switch over to EV production.
RIP ICE. Your won't be missed. :-)
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T Herber 5:55PM (7/09/2008)
I wholeheartedly agree! Within the next ten years EVs will be superior to ICEVs in every measureable way, and when that happens the major auto makers will begin to switch over to EV production.
RIP ICE. You won't be missed. :-)
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Me 6:33PM (7/09/2008)
I agree the ICE is dead. 2008 will be a turning point for it. From here on in, EVs will start to take over.
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retro77 6:41PM (7/09/2008)
You won't see the end of the ICE in 10 years. You will see less of them being produced, but the end? No, far from. You gotta get the generations that grew up on ICE's to die before that happens. Why do you think the phone book is still around?
Plus, people with cars [like the one pictured] have money and $5 gas does not scare them into turning electric. I have a 1967 Mustang GT with a genuine big block engine. Green? No! And it never will be. How long will it be around? Who knows, hopefully another 40 years because I am never getting rid of it.
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Joe 6:50PM (7/09/2008)
It will be a very long time before the ICE disappears. Ignoring automobiles for a moment, the ICE powers tons of things which won't be replaced by electric motors any time soon. Battery technology will have to improve significantly to get price down low enough to have decent electric lawnmowers, powerwashers and the like.
And then there are generators. Electric powered generator? Going to need some serious development in the solar and hydrogen fuel cell worlds before people can get rid of their ICE generators. That or some smaller, quieter, cheaper turbines.
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EV-1 7:27PM (7/09/2008)
@retro77:
Phone book still around ?
They stopped that four years ago ?
Catch up man !
and
$5 gas ?
Try $9 gas ( at present ) - - and on the rise . . . . . .
Guess you'll have to get another War goin' to keep
your beloved habit of polluting your world -
- Yes! YOUR world ! _ _ _ Ev'ryone can see it's Yours...
... and You make the playrules as you please.
Of course...
You simply just don't get it do you ?
NORTH POLE ICE-FREE THIS SUMMER ?
FIRST TIME EVER IN HISTORY ?
- Well who cares ? I wasn't going there in my X5 suv anyways..
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rj 8:22PM (7/09/2008)
Where I live we get more phone books than ever before. In fact there are competing phone books and my apartment lobby is full of them.
gas price depends where you live. I'm paying $1.50/ L
on the war thing - wow a self righteous twit wrote that.
On the North Pole thing - everybody is an expert - you don't know if this is a good or bad thing either. but please continue in your self righteous delusions ....on with the revolution or whatever
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philmcneal 9:18PM (7/09/2008)
you must live in bc rj :)
lol im more interested in what happens to the automotive service technicians when ICE dies, as well all know an EV requires much less maintenance than a ICE.
And funny as it sounds everyone says, "its the best time to get into the trade!" I'm still a yes or no on that one...
but i do love to fix cars... epically hybrids! hense why i'm working at toyota to get my hybrid tech badge.
Paul 12:13AM (7/10/2008)
I'm guessing most of the technicians will go to work for VW once more and more systems go all electric. VW can't get atheir current electrical systems to last 90 days to save their lives...
tankd0g 9:43PM (7/09/2008)
You people are on crack. It'll take 30-50+ years to phase them out. There are STILL cars on the road that run only on LEADED gas for christ sake. Just about every marketable EV car planned for the next 10 years still has an ICE in it. Even after the gasoline runs out, ethanol/hydrogen/LPG conversions will be available because there's just too many ICE cars out there.
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EV-1 9:51PM (7/09/2008)
If you're against more war you're "a selfrighteous twit" ?
Killing other people is justified by name-calling ?
So that's how it works ?
Why am I not surprised ...
Guess the Truth hurts so best resort to mockery -
- as if that would make up an argument.
Perhaps some peoples brains are at that level...
The point of wasting Natural rescourses on outdated old-fashion technology - be it phone books or wasteful IC engines - is alien to me.
Intelligent people will make lots of Money on NEW creative technology.
( As if money is the one thing that matter... )
Let's hope the pathetical attempts to argue for increased pollution and warmer climate will drown themselves.
( As reality comes flooding in )
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Jimmy 10:10PM (7/09/2008)
The internal combustion engine in some form will be the primary form of non-stationary power for the foreseeable future. Electric motors are great, but batteries can not compete with liquid hydrocarbon fuels for portability and energy density.
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Mike!!ekiM 11:50PM (7/09/2008)
- there's a lot of new battery tech coming down the line. Integrating ultra capacitors into the battery package will be a big help.
You can't argue with 87% efficiency vs. 13% for ICE. The clock is ticking.
Paul 12:21AM (7/10/2008)
Jimmy, you obviously can't foresee too well. I agree that it'll take far more than 10 years to phase out ICE's, but I can "foresee" far longer than 10 years and I believe that in no more than 20 ICE's could (, should, and likely will) no longer be the *primary* form of non-stationary power. WRT to energy density, true, but the energy conversion efficiency of electric vehicles makes this a moot issue. Energy density of batteries will likely double in the next 10 years. Energy conversion in ICE's might increase 20% if we're lucky.
BlackbirdHighway 6:13AM (7/10/2008)
The end of the ICE? I don't really understand the question. The ICE will be around in some form probably through the lifetime of everyone alive today.
The better question is "When will electrics make a significant part of the new car market?" Even when California was at the height of the ZEV mandate, electrics were still a tiny fraction of 1% of new cars. I think we should be trying to predict when 5% of the US new car market are electrics.
That is at least 10 years away, unless there is some breakthrough in batteries.
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Mark 8:42AM (7/10/2008)
And before that ethanol and green fuels will be used before going to hybrid - more information at www.carbloguk.co.uk
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EV-1 7:54AM (7/10/2008)
Since 90 % of all people dont use more range than EVs
already had over a decade ( ! ) ago ...
... the straight path of logic implies that
THERE ARE POWERFUL OBSTACLES THAT ARE NOT
, repeat N-O-T , OF TECHNICAL NATURE .
The approach that we'll all just carry on, no need for change,
- will inevitably produce results.
You reap what you sow.
Even if BIg Industry often like to divert attention from their business by pointing to the little man and stress the importance of him changing his lightbulbs and contributing his part, it actually really IS important to change behaviour and habits by all inhabitants.
Politicians duty is to encourage and make it easier to change.
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rj - another one 9:02AM (7/10/2008)
The rav4 ev had 1000 lbs of batteries to get a range of up to 100 miles. 5 gallons of gasoline weighs under 40 lbs even in a metal can.
No politician can change this. The laws of physics are not under their jurisdiction.
There are powerful obstacles, cost, range, recharge time, battery life, energy density ...
If you want electric cars to become a reality they are going to have to be better than they are now.
Ignoring the limitations they have and pretending that they are "good enough" now does not make it so.
The efficiency of the electric car is not as much of an improvement as you might think.
Power plant 33- 60% efficient
Transmission lines 97%
charging 85%
motor 85%
23 to 42% efficient.
Yes, that is better than gasoline. Forgive me for not running out and buying a $100,000 electric car with a $34,000 battery.
Even if money is no object and your goal is to do something nice for the environment I'm convinced that there are other things you can do first that will cost less and have a larger positive impact than an electric car.
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goehring 11:18AM (7/10/2008)
I agree that current battery tech is more expensive than ICE but this is not governed by physics.
You should update your numbers, these are out of date.
Power plant efficiency is not relevant in this comparison.
Transmission ~90%
Charging ~95%
Motor ~95%
Also, for a fair comparison, for the ICE you would need to compare the the entire powertrain for each case, engine, gas tank, starter, alternator, battery, transmission, cooling, vs. battery, motor, cooling.
Also, if you are going to include transmission losses for electric, you need to include (exploration?), drilling, refining, and transport for the liquid fuel.
Also, electric vehicles are not and will not be powered primarily by coal.
Coal is approximately 50% of current supply, but cars will use marginal supply, which is much, much more efficient than installed base.
A fair comparison would use wind/water/solar to wheel vs well to wheel.
BlackbirdHighway 2:27PM (7/10/2008)
I like they way you've included the entire energy production chain for electric cars, then compare that against only the very last step, the ICE, for the dino model.
I guess we are to assume that gasoline springs magically from the ground, fully refined, right at your local filling station?
If you included the drilling, pumping, shipping, refining, more shipping, more pumping, etc. for the oil into gasoline chain then you might get a more comparable analysis.