Toyota Sustainable Mobility Seminar explains where we're at, and it ain't pretty
In Portland, Oregon today, Toyota held an in-depth backgrounder called the "Toyota Sustainable Mobility Seminar." The short version of the day's message is this: we're in trouble. AutoblogGreen was invited to cover the event and we'll have complete coverage of the six or so hours of presentations and discussion as soon as we get the audio edited and whatnot. Before that, though, a little recap for you before it gets too late tonight so you can compare what happened here with the Chrysler EV news and last week's Volt rollout.This was not an uplifting, "everything will be just fine one we get li-ion batteries" type of conference. Toyota invited scientists to set up the problem during the morning sessions, which got into some nitty-gritty details about oil supplies (they're running out), why biofuels - except for algae biodiesel - are not much better than conventional fuels, and why we need to think about water when we switch on a lightbulb, among many other topics. Toyota representatives then, yes, spent the afternoon discussing what ToMoCo is doing to make a difference, but here, too, the talks were not much more uplifting than the morning ones. Plug-in hybrids are not going to solve everything, neither are li-ions, and time isn't really on our side. As I said, we'll have total coverage up later, but for now I just wanted to tease you with these highlights:
- America will need 33 percent more transportation fuels by 2030 than it does today
- There is no way that Coskata will be able to make a gallon of ethanol for a dollar
- Meeting NHTSA's proposed 35 mpg CAFE standard is going to be really, really tough
- A PHEV Prius might not have fold-down seats because of the huge battery
- Peak oil is coming sometime between 2017 and 2023
UPDATE: Full coverage starts here.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Steve-O 9:51PM (9/23/2008)
I am not an industry insider but I do have a much more positive view of things. We have known Toyota hates biofuels by their lineup of vehicles. We know theat GM and Diamler loves ithem by theirs. Yes, we are under the gun. Yes, hindsight is 20-20 and we should not be in our oil dependence prdicament we are in. But necessity STILL is the mother of innovation. And the more people that educate themselves in this situation, the more intelligent buying decisions they will make. This will pave the road to more innovation. I just don't see it as negatively as this seminar seems to. But at the same time, for whatever reason, we americans have far too few transportation choices, and need greener ones fast.
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Luke 10:15PM (9/23/2008)
I want to echo what Steve just said and say that the defeatist attitude regarding technology is natural selection's way of weeding out the weak. Time and again Western civilization (i.e., science) has shown the ability to adapt. We will continue to do so. This is yet another opportunity to prove ourselves.
russellg 3:14AM (9/24/2008)
this looks more like a toyota bulls**t meeting than anything else seems to me the motor companies wish to remain a big part of the problem and not a solution im not hopefull
Andy 3:45AM (9/24/2008)
These paradigm changes are harder to accept for industry insiders than those outsiders. Some things that have been working perfectly well for 40-50 years will change.
So, the personal automobile needs to change size, weight and shape. Why can't that be done?
I bet once some vested interests were figuring out how to fit a petrol engine into a horse buggy......"It can't be done folks" .... "Theres no way people will buy it" ...... "Lookie here, you can't even steer it with reins" ... "Where do you hang the poop scoop".
I almost feel sorry for the people who fear such change.
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ryan 5:54AM (9/24/2008)
"Peak oil is coming sometime between 2017 and 2023"
Wait a second, it is still about 10 years off? That kind of contradicts what pretty much every other group is saying on the matter.
What the automotive giants SHOULD be doing is focusing on bringing in new business related to public transportation. Good solutions in that area could be golden.
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BlackbirdHighway 6:44AM (9/24/2008)
Peak Oil is here right now.
By 2020, oil consumption in the US will be 30% less than it is now. That will be achieved not by one single silver bullet, but by a combination of changes.
People will drive less. They will drive smaller vehicles. All new vehicles, large and small will get better mileage. Alternative fuels will replace an increasing portion of oil based fuels. Electric vehicles will replace an increasing number of fuel burners. None of these alone can do it, but when combined they will make it happen.
All of these things are achievable. I don't understand people who say it can't be done when we haven't even tried yet!
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Wise Golden 9:16AM (9/24/2008)
America will need 33 percent more transportation fuels by 2030 than it does today -- not likely. In fact, this is hardly possible.
There is no way that Coskata will be able to make a gallon of ethanol for a dollar -- They disagree. I remember Toyota saying GM could not build the Volt, but yet we saw it racing around a track a few days ago, and now Chrysler's got a few on track as well.
Meeting NHTSA's proposed 35 mpg CAFE standard is going to be really, really tough -- No doubt, but it will happen.
A PHEV Prius might not have fold-down seats because of the huge battery -- shows a flaw with the Prius battery. I suspect they will switch to Li-on. By theway, who cares if theseats go down.
Peak oil is coming sometime between 2017 and 2023 -- Only because we have forced it upon ourselves, and that's fine because unlike Toyota, I believe oil consuption will be down a solid 20-30% by 2017, not up.
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EV 11:06AM (9/24/2008)
What Toyota can do is to produced new RAV-4 EV with Li-ion battery for test and make different grades of prius; starting with the standard hybrid Prius using NiMh, follow by a $30k plug in Prius with Li-ion , and finally a limited number of Prius EV with Li-Ion for long term testing. Toyota can also introduce the Estima hybrid mini van or add a Sienna hybrid.
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Turbofrog 11:26AM (9/24/2008)
Any company that says that 35 mpg will be difficult is spewing corporate tripe in order to make their life easier.
The standard (and only) valid argument automakers have is "Oh no! Consumers are so used to 300 hp V6s in full-size family sedans! If all we offer is 200 hp hybrids, we'll lose all our business! Buyers expect these things!"
...but in reality, if everyone needs to make the change, that line of thinking is patently false. No automaker is at an advantage if they all have to offer a line of efficient cars. It would be EASILY possible to offer a fully internal-combustion line-up that averaged 35 mpg. Once you throw hybridization, PHEVs, and maybe even the odd full EV, 35 mpg looks like an utter joke.
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JAD 8:33PM (9/24/2008)
You guys better listen. Toyota started the green movement back when gas was cheap and plentiful. The Prius has been and will be the trend setter. The Volt is a great start for GM. My only question is why did it take a small company (Toyota) and it was small at the beginning of the green movement to get the BIG THREE to do something about their terrible line up of gas sucking cars and trucks. Look if Toyota is worried about something (gas) WE ALL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT IT.
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jharlan 11:10AM (2/11/2009)
They are guessing, and putting a self serving spin on it.
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jharlan 11:11AM (2/11/2009)
The 2 biggest myths perpetrated on mankind are: 1. peak oil, and 2. man caused climate change.
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