Got lithium? Lots
Click on chart for PDF
When companies need to know about future market conditions for various commodities, they hire a firm with the expertise to evaluate the situation and report back. For instance, as Mitsubishi was mulling the possible future of electric cars equipped with lithium ion batteries, they hired TRU Group to do an analysis on future battery options. Usually, ordinary folks don't get to see the results of this kind of work, but in the case here, we can. In a rare move, Mitsubishi has allowed their consultants to release some of the findings about the global markets for lithium through to 2020 and that's just what they did at the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Santiago 2009.
The results are comforting to those worried about a sudden upsurge in the production of electric cars using lithium ion batteries, especially over the next few years. Because of the sudden recession, there is actually an oversupply of the mineral right now and this should continue until about 2013. It doesn't seem as though there will be a "peak lithium" after that either. Although brine deposits, like those in Bolivia and China, may offer the easiest and cheapest supplies to extract, a moderate price rise would support mining here in America, where we appear to have quite a bit.
[Source: TRU Group via Green Car Congress]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
rob 7:58PM (1/28/2009)
Good news. Not unexpected, but nice to see it from a credible source.
Now hands up, how many believe oil money has been behind the "peak lithium" stories that have been hitting the press lately...
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jpm 1:17AM (1/29/2009)
I wasn't aware of the "peak-lithium" story in the media... well, I don't watch the news so...
but even then, it would seem to be nonsense-- there hasn't been serious demand for Li yet like there has been for oil for the past (100?) years, so how could we have a accurate understanding of it's quantity and location.
kert 1:46AM (1/29/2009)
Whats all this hoopla about lithium ? We all know that lithium is neither exotic nor expensive element. What makes commonly used "lithium" batteries expensive is the cobalt in the cathode, and with that now being replaced with other alternatives ( LFP, manganese ) this problem is going away as well.
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John 5:23AM (1/29/2009)
one other benefit, unlike oil, the Lithium and other materials in the process are metallic based and thus can be recovered and recycled to a large degree also decreasing the need for excess mining. it is nice to see some basic research into how much there really is because its not a renewable resource, but it is a recyclable resource which is much certainly better then oil
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ziv 8:17AM (1/29/2009)
For the past year or so ever time Lithium Ion batteries came up, there was usually someone citing Tahil's paper, The Trouble with Lithium, which makes it look like we are going from one declining source of energy, oil to another in lithium. Now with Western Lithium developing its mines in Nevada and China growing its production, and now this paper, lithium looks like a pretty safe bet. And now I see that Tahil, the anti lithium crowds champion, also believes that the World Trade Centers were destroyed by, drumroll please! Two nuclear devices.
And he has incontrovertible proof!
I solidly believe that he WILL be able to prove his assertions about lithium and the twin nuclear devices destroying the world trade center. But, it will happen shortly after EEStor delivers a working product at a reasonable price.
http://www.evworld.com/library/lithium_shortage.pdf
http://www.nucleardemolition.com/GZero_Sample.pdf
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Chris M 5:07PM (1/29/2009)
Oh, that Tahil paper is classic kook-screed! His "proof" of an atomic bomb under the WTC? Well, there was the "Manhattan project" that created the bomb, one of the bombs was code named "trinity" and the WTC was built in Manhattan on the site of the old Trinity church! In other words, mere coincidences of words conflated into a bogus "proof".
His "lithium shortage" paper is not quite as kooky, but still suffers from major logic errors. One in particular is claiming enough lithium to make 60 million PHEVs would take 5x the world production of LiCO2 (Lithium Carbonate) - overlooking the fact the figures he quotes is for annual production, so in a mere 5 years there would be enough produced for those 60 million PHEVs, and of course it will take more than 5 yeas to produce that many PHEVs. It also ignores the potential to increase production.
Throwback 9:58AM (1/29/2009)
"a moderate price rise would support mining here in America, where we appear to have quite a bit."
I'm sure some enviromental group will oppose mining lithium in the US. There is always someone looking to oppose developing our own resources.
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ekline 1:39PM (1/30/2009)
"There is always someone looking to oppose developing our own resources."
-This is for our own future benefit might I add.
roz 2:41PM (1/29/2009)
I would be interested in knowing how many cars in production they estimate. How fast can they ramp up supply of battery packs.
That curve does not look as steep as I would assume it needs to be to transition to EVs on a mass scale worldwide.
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Doug 2:29PM (1/29/2009)
It's still not clear what the market dynamics for lithium will look like. This chart says nothing about the production capacity and the cost of production. And even an apparent market distortion or shortage can lead to very large swings in market pricing. Lithium doesn't form in large quantities in nature. It's found in rather dilute concentrations that must be mined and refined. All that has a price tag (and a carbon foot print). It's not clear to me that this will ultimately change the environmental impact (you will still need to ship this stuff all over the world and unless we're going to run planes and ships on batteries, we're still talking about a fossil fuel).
Some fundamental questions still remain:
- How much will Li cost to refine?
- How much will be needed for a broad electric car roll-out?
- What is the carbon footprint of producing a battery throughout the world?
- What are the geopolitical risks involved (will we empower Bolivia to be more totalitarian?)?
- How much cost will the auto market bear? (The Chevy volt needs to get vastly cheaper and more profitable)
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R. Keith Evans 9:55PM (1/29/2009)
For current information please read my 2 reports on lithium reserves and resources in www.worldlithium.com
Keith Evans
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Oliver Claridge 1:52PM (2/27/2009)
Dear R. Keith,
I live and work in London and am very interested in renewable energy. Is there any way we can get in touch with you?
alan stephens 1:06PM (3/25/2009)
Keith
Can you please send me your email
Cheers
Alan
iceBeater 10:13PM (1/29/2009)
GREAT NEWS!
This would explain why one of the guys over at DIYelectriccars.com just got a quote at .35c per KWH for LiFePo4 cells from China. Over the past year, diy convertors have been paying .65c to $1.20.
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TRU Group Inc 2:51PM (3/03/2009)
You can view the TRU lithium outlook presentation at
http://trugroup.com/Lithium-Market-Conference.html
TRU Group Inc
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