Tesla to keep laptop cells until 3rd-gen car, new Roadster sales pace lagging
Tesla Model S - Click above for high-res image gallery
Following the announcement that Tesla had been approved for $465 million in loans from the Department of Energy, CEO Elon Musk held a conference call. Most of what was said wasn't especially newsworthy and he didn't discuss the legal proceedings that have been going on around him and the company recently. He did however, discuss some issues relating to batteries and the Roadster.
On the battery front, Musk was pretty adamant about sticking with the current arrangement of several thousand laptop cells for the Model S. While larger format cells hold promise and Tesla is investigating them, Musk doesn't believe they have the economies of scale or energy density to make them worthwhile for the Model S. Of course with every other automaker and battery supplier going that direction, large packs will have the economies of scale before long. Musk expects to make the change for the third, higher volume, lower price car that's coming after the Model S.
The other, more worrying news was about Roadster sales, or rather the lack of them. For about a year, now Roadster sales have been stuck at about 1,300. Musk was asked what the current backlog of Roadsters was and he responded with "about 700-800." Added to the 500 delivered so far, that implies that even with new sales from Europe and Canada, cancellations are keeping pace with orders. That's going to make it awfully difficult to hit the 1,000 Roadsters-a-year target Musk talked about. Hopefully, revenues from powertrain sales like the Smart batteries will pick up the slack until the Model S arrives.
Gallery: Tesla Model S: LIVE REVEAL
[Source: Green Fuels Forecast]
Photos copyright ©2009 Drew Phillips / Weblogs, Inc.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
BlackbirdHighway 8:19AM (6/24/2009)
Sales of almost every vehicle are down, except for the Mini, and the Prius in Japan.
We are starting to see some signs that the recession may end around the end of this year, so next year could see an improvement. The Fed loan yesterday will help with folks who had doubts about the company's long term prospects.
Ultimately the Roadster is a niche car and will never be a big seller. Less than a thousand a year might be the level they have to accept. That doesn't matter too much, the Model S sales are much more important. If they sell 500 Roadsters and 25,000 Model S, I think Tesla would be plenty happy.
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Nick P. 8:31AM (6/24/2009)
I think those cancellations have more to do with the lack of availability. At this point, some people have been waiting for over a year. Once they can get the waiting time to 3 months, things will get better.
A sport car is kind of an impulse buy and in many parts of the world quite seasonal. I'm willing to bet tat many people got on the waiting list with the idea of driving a Roadster during the summer. Receiving a summer sport car in October just to put it in a garage is kind of a deal breaker.
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Tim 9:08AM (6/24/2009)
Although the Model-S (“S” means “sedan”?) is strikingly beautiful, I would NOT buy a car with over 6 thousand laptop batteries in it with its incredibly complex Battery Management System. I'll wait until Tesla uses the NEWER prismatic format cells and battery management system. EV technology is rapidly evolving and I don’t see that Tesla is keeping up with the competition. We’ll all just have to wait and see.
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Redeemed 9:43AM (6/24/2009)
With the millions of laptop batteries that have been recalled for fires, I don't blame you.
solution 11:50AM (6/24/2009)
Battery fires are not an issue with the roadster. Please stop spreading misinformation.
Tesla Motors Concepts 11:58AM (6/24/2009)
@Tim and @Redeemed
Before you can make such statements you may want to note that Tesla Motors has incorporated manufacturing processes that prevent any disturbance or disruption with one battery from effecting any of the other.
While the Roadster incorporates 6831 laptop batteries, the battery pack is engineered for optimal performance and minimal complications and is exactly the reason Daimler reached a deal with Tesla Motors to build a 100% electric Smart EV.
You may also want to note that Tesla is currently SELLING their battery packs to other OEM, and that end of Tesla Motors is profitable!
Tesla has done exhaustive research including puncturing batteries and even lighting them afire to test their endurance and their reactions. And suffice it to say they know more about their own batteries than anyone.
In essence,
The Model S has been built entirely from the ground up and has the LEAST amount of complexity of any car in its class. Period.
If you are seeking complex, simply open the hood of a regular sedan and take a glimpse at the engine. You have found your complex!
Tim 12:22PM (6/24/2009)
Tesla Motor Concepts;
You are comparing EVs to ICE and in THAT comparison, your ICE competition is MUCH more complex.
I was comparing your 6831 laptop cells vs a few hundred prismatic cells which are only now beginning to hit the market with NEWER, more advanced chemistry. In THIS comparison, Tesla's pack is much more complex and antiquated.
This is a RAPIDLY evolving field and the competition (if allowed by gov't non-interference) will be fierce.
The fact that you are selling your packs to those who are trying to play “catch up” makes little difference. I think the "buggy whip" comparison would apply to this fact. You'd better "make hay" because better is on the way.
Adapt or die!
Tesla Motors Concepts 1:17PM (6/24/2009)
@Tim
Thank you for clarifying your position.
Like Apple, Tesla does not incorporate technology into their consumer products until they are able to reach a level of refinement that makes that technology the best possible solution.
I drew support from Tesla selling their battery technology to underscore the fact that their technology is so stable and so refined, their is demand from other OEMs.
Please note, I am not discrediting the prismatic technology, I am merely implying that Tesla has found an innovative way to use laptop batteries successfully, and it works very well.
It is not necessary to adapt if you know how to innovate!
Tim 1:31PM (6/24/2009)
Tesla Motor Concepts;
You are being out innovated. You need to re-modulate and assimilate new technologies faster or the competition will destroy you. Best of luck! (sincerely)
polo 5:32PM (6/24/2009)
"EV technology is rapidly evolving and I don’t see that Tesla is keeping up with the competition."
What competition? Telsa has one of the most advanced electric powertrains around. There are always new tech advances being reported, but very few of those make it into final production. I also wouldn't compare their battery packs to a few exploding Chinese-made batteries. You have a much greater risk of being fried in your gas powered car during an accident than any EV.
Chris M 5:35PM (6/24/2009)
When Tesla Motors started development, they surveyed the batteries available, and chose the small 18650 LiIon batteries, as those had the highest energy density and the lowest cost per Kwh stored that was available. That is still true today.
However, battery technology is always improving, and Tesla Motors keeps on top of developments. When another type of battery comes along with better energy density and a lower cost per Kwh, then Tesla Motors will test it out and switch.
imag 10:22AM (6/25/2009)
Polo - are you seriously suggesting that because a company got a governement bailout, that proves the viability of its product? How does that logic work with Chrysler?
In the case of Tesla, which has a repeat public liar for a CEO, and which trotted around a concept shell containing no more impressive technology than the average golf cart as a way to woo that half billion dollar loan, there is plenty of reason to be sceptical.
As for the corporate drone on here - companies love to paint rosy pictures about how they are different - until they realize that the same rules that apply to everyone else apply to them. Tesla will go on telling everyone they innovated out of standard car company issues, even as the recalls go out. Here's reality: you will have problems. You have already had problems because you thought you could ignore conventional wisdom in the manufacture of automobiles. You thought you were so innovative that the rules wouldn't apply to you. You were wrong, and you'll be wrong again.
I want an electric car industry as much as anyone, but I can't take the lies and obfuscation.
Richard 10:03AM (6/24/2009)
Lithium ion batteries are too expensive for a mass market car at this time. Used in much smaller quantities (and cost) they can make a good substitute for NiMH in a hybrid and that makes economic sense. Used for a stand alone power source it just takes too many at too much expense to be worth changing from a hybrid or even a conventional high mileage ICE. We need BETTER BATTERIES. I know a lot of research is ongoing and I am hoping for great improvements in power versus cost. But until then electric vehicles will only be for the few that can afford them, not the mass market that we need.
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occ 10:50AM (6/24/2009)
Dont count Better Place and Renault-Nissan out just yet. Want an affordable lithium powered EV for $20K or less? Ok, so with them you'll have to buy kwh instead of gasoline, but should still cost you less, and more stable prices, and clean driving conscience to boot.
Also, iMiEV is ramping up soon...hold on to your gas clunker a few more years, EV will soon be in mass production and affordable real soon!
polo 5:36PM (6/24/2009)
"Lithium ion batteries are too expensive for a mass market car at this t
Funny, because I could've just swore Ford and Nissan just got awarded billions toward their mass market EVs, and Telsa awarded hundreds of millions after demonstrating a viable business plan for their mass-release EV. Sounds like the facts have a problem with your mantra.
vfx 11:01AM (6/24/2009)
The Model S batteries may be different in that there has been talk about changing the jacket material. The metal sleeve that contains each cell could be changed into a lighter alloy,
1300 Roadsters (and spares) means Tesla has bought close to 10 million cells. That should give them some good buying power to ask for changes.
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parry3188 12:13PM (6/25/2009)
@ imag
Tesla, Ford, and Nissan didn't get bailouts, they got loans from the U.S. Department of Energy, which were available for application long before the financial crisis even happened.
But you're probably right, I'm sure Tesla scammed that money from the DOE, I mean, they're pretty much scamming 500+ people who think they're driving Roadsters but, like you say, are actually just driving golf carts that can go 200 miles/charge and 100+ mph. And let's not forget about the Daimler deal, that's obviously a scam, there's no way Daimler actually bought a 10 percent stake in Tesla just like there's no way that Tesla's been valued at a billion dollars.
Oh well, I guess everyone will just continue to be scammed by Tesla when they deliver an incredible-looking sedan in a couple of years and maybe even a cheap "budget scam mobile" some time after that.
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Bill 6:05PM (7/01/2009)
"I mean, they're pretty much scamming 500+ people who think they're driving Roadsters but, like you say, are actually just driving golf carts that can go 200 miles/charge and 100+ mph."
Ha! I wonder if any golf courses out there would let you bring your Roadster on the course with your clubs sticking out of the trunk? Maybe the ones which don't use cart paths since the Roadster is wider than a cart... Of course, you'd have to resist the urge to turn donuts if you wanted to be invited back again!
lens42 12:16AM (7/20/2009)
If the article is right, Roadster sales are not flat, they've STOPPED. They are saying 1300 total vehicles sold, not 1300 per year, and that the number has not increased. That seems VERY bad to me.
I don't see the point of the arguments regarding battery technology. When a new better battery becomes available, Tesla will use it. End of story. Adopting a new battery doesn't seem like that big a deal. Unfortunately for Tesla, the battery is the key to the car, so expertise they've gained making laptop batteries work in vehicles (their most valuable asset) will not keep carrying the company, even though it's worth a lot today.
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