Columnist: electric vehicle hype needs to be tempered
Coda sedan - Click above for high-res image gallery
Is the Detroit News becoming a home for anti-electric vehicle advocates? Last week, the News published a mostly confusing article by Manny Lopez that criticized the DOE loan that Tesla received. Another column, this one by Neil Winton, is titled, "Electric cars attract hype, but reality is less exciting" and gives Winton's European perspective on the EV market. Winton makes more coherent points than Lopez, but he still comes down pretty hard on EVs, citing range issues and price as the two big hurdles. This is certainly something we've heard before, and Winton isn't convinced by EV supporters who say things will work out just fine if governments give the cars one more push (tax break, R&D funding, etc.). As a warning, Winton points to the Wankel rotary engine and its rise and fall in the 1960s.
Winton relied on a market forecast by CSM Worldwide for some of his predictions. CSM found that " enthusiasm for electrification has lost all contact with reality," according to Winton. CSM's numbers predict that, globally, there will be just 132,000 plug-in vehicles (pure EVs and hybrids) from major automakers in 2015. Previously, CSM has declared that microcars won't play a big (pardon the pun) role in the U.S. market.
Gallery: Coda EV live
Coda sedan photos Copyright ©2009 Mike Levine
[Source: Detroit News]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Larz 8:35PM (6/30/2009)
Sure, there are hurdles, like I wonder how much power hills & mountains
will draw off; but we have to move on sometime. Better than sitting still.
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Lad 1:28AM (7/01/2009)
Buying a BEV requires some calculation: How are you going to use the car? Since the data I read says that cars are mainly used less than 50 mile each day; it seems to me that a 100 mile range BEV would meet most people's needs except for vacations and long range runs...perhaps a rental or train would do the job for those times you need long distance mileage.
paulwesterberg 8:54PM (6/30/2009)
In the past new technology such as the Wankel rotary engine was a failure and a waste of money, so all new technology is expensive and will always fail. The lesson is don't try.
Also: Get off my lawn!
Reply
Ignatius 1:03AM (7/01/2009)
Here's your what if for the day;
What if Thomas Edison thought like this idiot?
Noz 2:29AM (7/01/2009)
Westerberg,
Go crawl back in a cave since all that new technology you use everyday is a waste of money and a failure.
Larry Miller 4:30AM (7/01/2009)
Right you are.
http://www.null-hypothesis.co.uk/science/strange-but-true/item/invention_failure_never_work_disaster
Juggernaut 7:13AM (7/01/2009)
Westerberg.. I salute your sarcasm...!!!!!
ziv 3:56PM (7/01/2009)
Juggernaut, I am glad someone recognizes sarcasm.
The criticism of BEV's is true, they are expensive and short ranged, and recharging them is slow and inefficient, and the batteries wear out quickly if used to capacity. Today. But within a few years the price will be a bit lower, and the range longer. There will be faster charging, though it may never be as fast as fueling an ICE without causing a bit more battery degradation. But the batteries themselves will last longer, probably in excess of 150,000 miles.
Or you can use a smaller 16 kWh or 20 kWh battery and add a range extender, thereby avoiding all of the disadvantages except cost/complexity. Until the economies of scale kick in and then, maybe, the operating cost of a primarily electric vehicle with an ICE backup generator may be considerably less than a primarily ICE.
Maybe, Nobody knows what the price of gas will be in a year, or five, or the price of electricity for that matter with Cap and Trade/Tax on the way.
PopSmith 9:13PM (6/30/2009)
I don't get the major criticism against electric cars. Sure, the ones available today aren't able to match there gasoline counterparts in range (yet!) but it takes some time.
You have to crawl before you can walk and you have to walk before you can run. Consequently, EVs and the batteries that power them are not going to instantaneously be able to compete with gasoline in the range and price departments because it's a relatively new thing.
When it comes to pure electric cars one on the ever-nearing horizon is the Model S. It's supposed to have a range of 160-300 miles depending on the battery pack and, obviously, how it's driven.
As a comparison for pricing a new Audi A6 gets 220-270 miles per tank of gas and costs between $50,000 and $63,000, which is right in the price bracket of the Tesla.
That sounds like affordability to a decent amount of people and will help fund the developement BlueStar which should make a lot of the "millage and price of electric cars suck!" people shut up.
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PopSmith 9:14PM (6/30/2009)
When I said "the price bracket of the Tesla" I meant to say "the price bracket of the Tesla Model S".
why not the LS2LS7? 11:16PM (6/30/2009)
The A6 is a lot different car than the Model S. You're paying extra for luxury, luxury that you won't get in the Model S.
Also, if your A6 doesn't have a 300 mile range I'd be shocked. My 2000 A6 goes that far, and it has the thirstiest engine per gas tank size offered that year. 220? You're kidding me! The tank in a current A6 quattro is 18 gallons, and the car gets 17/25 mpg (the V8 gets 16/23 but has a 20 gallon tank). How are you saying either of those configs get 220 miles to a tank?
Finally, the $57,400 model of the Model S only has a range of 160 miles, not 250. Not 300.
polo 12:13AM (7/01/2009)
"Finally, the $57,400 model of the Model S only has a range of 160 miles, not 250. Not 300."
Wrong, the $50K (post gov incentives) Model S has a range of160miles. I don't think they've announce prices for the 300mile range Model S but it should be around $57K.
locoyocal 9:19PM (6/30/2009)
Funny. I thought EV's are actually under-hyped. Almost no-body knows that pure EV's are arriving in the US in a couple years.
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paulwesterberg 9:31AM (7/01/2009)
I agree, this hack writing for the Detroit news is towing the GM party line trying to make sure that everyone knows that EVs with their limited range will never be practical.
Never mind that most people don't drive that far on their daily commute.
Andres 9:43PM (6/30/2009)
Gasoline is way too cheap in the US. Things will never change until the 10 dollar/gallon reality that we all face in this planet hits the US.
Scary country.
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Jim 10:33PM (6/30/2009)
EV just don't make sense yet.
Look at the Coda listed above. Even after tax break it will never recoup the premium for the batteries and electric drivetrain. It's the quality of an $8000 car but costs $45k. With gasoline under $4 it doesn't make sense to buy this over an Audi or BMW...
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CaramelZappa 1:14AM (7/01/2009)
It's not all about saving money, at this point ev buyers are much more interested in saving the environment. With an ev and solar panels on your roof you have no emissions at all, even with the best of hybrids you will always have emissions. On top of that it reduces our dependence on foreign oil. Our oil is mostly supplied by other countries and they can fluctuate the price however they want. With a gasoline car, if gas goes to $10 a gallon, you're screwed. The price of an EV and solar panels might be a bit staggering but you'll never have to worry about price fluctuations, limited supply of oil, or even an energy crisis.
Even when you consider it takes you years to pay off your solar panels and EV, those are years of paying a constant, steady monthly bill, that you know you can afford. With gas it may be cheaper right now but you'll never know what the gas will cost tomorrow or the next day. If gas reaches an all time high again and stays that way, then what?
jpm 3:05AM (7/01/2009)
I love when people say "... i can never recoup the cost of such and such .... " Well how the hell do you recoup the cost of a petrol car? how does it pay itself off? What ultimately matters is how much carbon you dump in the atmosphere.... think outside the box
Larry Miller 4:42AM (7/01/2009)
Yes, they must get prices down to build mass market demand. But it's always that way with new technoology. It will happen in due course.
Jim 12:43PM (7/01/2009)
It will happen in due course, once someone solves the battery problem.
Recouping the cost implies a basline situation. You spend a certain amount of money and gain benefits later. The payback period is the amount of time for the benefits to overcome the initial expense (ignoring time-value of money and opportunity costs.) For an EV the gasoline car is the baseline. A gasoline car doesn't need to pay itself off, it's the baseline.
Yes there are people that want to save the environment and be off foreign oil. They are perfectly happen to ride around in a cheap piece of junk and proclaim "Look at me! I'm saving all the worlds problems." That is a small number of people compared to the number needed for mainstream adoption.
I want cars to be greener and not use foreign oil but I love sports cars and when they release an EV that I can recharge in 5 mins at the gas station or starbucks, I'm on board. Until then the Boxster will do.
The point of the article is that mainstream adoption is a long way off. For mainstream adoption the middle class couple has to want to buy, and right now they are trying to figure out the most cost effective ways to keep going. An EV is not cost effective and until it is, it won't see mainstream appeal.