At Witz' End: Turning over a new (Nissan) LEAF
by Gary Witzenburg on Aug 14th 2009 at 12:01PM 
Had lunch the other day with Nissan North America Product Planning Vice President Larry Dominique. He is the point man for communicating Nissan's green-vehicle vision, beginning with its soon-to-come LEAF battery electric car. A few minutes earlier, he had presented exactly that to a large roomful of automaker and supplier representatives, industry analysts, consultants and media.The occasion was the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) Management Briefing Seminars, an important industry conference that has been a 44-year annual tradition. He and Nissan Midwest PR manager Brian Brockman had invited a small group of journalists to join them for lunch so we could ask burning questions about the car and the plan. Which we did. Find out what the answers were after the jump.
We learned that, among other things, there will be similarities between Nissan's LEAF BEV roll-out beginning next year and GM's EV1 launch 13 years earlier. For starters, they will begin with leases and expand later to private sales, and they will pre-qualify prospects to ensure they understand the car's operating parameters, range limitations, charge times, etc.
LEAF customers will need their own garages, at least at first, and 220V power sources for EVSE (Electric Vehicle Service Equipment) home charge units. And roadside assistance will be part of the deal to rescue any who encounter problems or run out of volts on the road.
Nissan is working with state and local governments and utilities, just as GM did, as well as with technical support supplier Electric Transportation Engineering Corp. (eTec) to ensure that sufficient public charge stations will be available in the five markets (Seattle, San Diego, Oregon, Tennessee, and the Phoenix/Tucson area) where the car will arrive first. Also, Nissan is talking with Better Place about adding potential quick battery swaps in the future.
We're paving the road, laying the groundwork, for all OEMs.
According to Nissan's LEAF announcement press release (read it in this post), Renault-Nissan's zero-emission mobility programs "include partnerships with countries such as the UK and Portugal, local governments in the Japan and the USA, and other sectors, for a total of nearly 30 partnerships worldwide." These partnerships will focus on three major areas: 1) development of a comprehensive charging infrastructure through public and private investment, 2) incentives and subsidies from local, regional, and national governments, and 3) public education on the individual and societal benefits of zero-emissions mobility. "We're paving the road, laying the groundwork, for all OEMs," Dominique says.
Over lunch, we learned that LEAF's claimed 100-mile range is based on EPA's L.A.-cycle test, and Dominique believes that is a realistic estimate for real-world usage, depending on speeds, driving style, weather and terrain. And it will use somewhat less of its li-ion battery pack's total 24 kWh capacity (we're guessing 16-18 kWh) to lengthen the pack's life and avoid the safety risks of discharging Li-ion to near-zero state-of-charge (SOC) or pumping it to 100 percent. Similarly, GM's Volt pack will use just half of its 16 kWh capacity between 30% and 80% SOC. Nissan's fast-charge capability will stop at 80% SOC for durability and safety reasons.
Dominique's presentation had followed those of Ford Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth and new GM Product Development Vice Chairman Tom Stephens. After lunch came a session called, "Sustainability of the Automobile (Industry) in an Era of Climate Change," which featured talks by Ford Sustainability, Environment and Safety Engineering Group VP Sue Cischke, Toyota Public Policy and Government/Industry Affairs Group VP Josephine Cooper and Environmental Defense Fund Executive Director David Yarnold, among others.
The previous day's speakers had included Akio Toyoda, Toyota's new President, Edward Montgomery, who is executive director of the White House Council on Automotive Communities and Workers, and Ron Bloom, senior adviser to the Secretary of the Treasury, assigned to the President's Task Force on the Automotive Industry. The final day's "Advanced Powertrain Forum" featured fact-filled presentations by Toyota Advanced Powertrain Program Manager, Advanced Technology Vehicles, Fuel Cell and Hybrid Vehicle Group, Justin Ward, GM Global Vehicle Engineering, Hybrids, Electric Vehicles and Batteries, Bob Kruse and high-level representatives from battery makers A123 Systems and Compact Power. Heavy duty! We'll cover what some of these folks said another time.
Will there be an upscale Infiniti EV? "It fits very well with Infiniti's technology image," Dominique says.
As you probably know, the LEAF will be a Prius-sized 5-door, 5-seat hatchback. Called "a critical first step in establishing the era of zero-emission mobility," it will be all-new and EV-only, though it does share some architectural elements with Nissan's B-segment Versa. While pricing has not been announced, Dominique says it will compete with "well-equipped C-segment vehicles" in the $25-33,000 range. Asked whether that price will include the 48-module laminated li-ion battery (instead of the battery being leased separately), he hints that it will. "We want our customers to have just one payment," he says.Our sources (including Honda R&D) indicate that li-ion batteries today typically cost $1,000 or more per kWh, and the near-term target is $500-800/kWh. But Dominique suggests that Nissan will pay much less for LEAF's high-power, high-energy laminated li-ion pack. "At $500 per kWh, my battery would cost $12,000," he tells us. "It will be a lot less than that."
You also probably know that Nissan plans to launch the LEAF in late 2010 in Japan, Europe and the U.S., starting with leases to public and private fleets. Sales to private customers should follow before long in cities with sufficient public charging infrastructures and expand to most others by 2012. The first 50,000 annual capacity will come from Nissan's Oppama, Japan, plant while Nissan North America (with a $1.6 billion U.S. DOE loan) will tool up its Smyrna, TN facility for another 150,000 a year, plus 200,000 li-ion batteries.
Will there be an upscale Infiniti EV? "It fits very well with Infiniti's technology image," Dominique says. "But it will be important to offer the 'right' Infiniti EV." Asked whether Nissan's Green Program will include additional hybrids – beyond today's low-volume (Toyota technology) Altima hybrid – and range-extender EVs in addition to battery EVs, he refers to those alternatives as "interim" solutions. "Our ultimate destination," he asserts, "is pure EV."
Gallery: 2010 Nissan Leaf EV
Award-winning automotive writer Gary Witzenburg has been writing about automobiles, auto people and the auto industry for 21 years. A former auto engineer, race driver and advanced technology vehicle development manager, his work has appeared in a wide variety of national magazines including The Robb Report, Playboy, Popular Mechanics, Car and Driver, Road & Track, Motor Trend, Autoweek and Automobile Quarterly and has authored eight automotive books. He is currently contributing regularly to Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com), AutoMedia.com, Ward's Auto World and Motor Trend's Truck Trend and is a North American Car and Truck of the Year juror.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
meme 12:24PM (8/14/2009)
Wow, a Witz post that's not that controversial. ;) Thanks, Gary.
One issue: "Our sources (including Honda R&D) indicate that li-ion batteries today typically cost $1,000 or more per kWh"
You really ought to stop listening to Honda, as it's become patently obvious that they're doing everything they can to try to scare people off EVs. I, as an individual, could go out today and, if I bought in enough bulk, get ThunderSky li-ion cells for $350/kWh. Same with some other Chinese manufacturers. Now, of course, those are Chinese cells, but they're still LiP, and everyone I've spoken with who's used them has been very pleased with their performance. As an automaker, you can get even the non-Chinese cells at a reasonable price. Th!nk is paying $500/kWh for their packs. Heck, GM has even stated that the price of their pack is "thousands less" than $10,000, implying $7-8k for the 16kWh pack (i.e., $500/kWh or less). And if you don't want LiFeP04 or LiMnO2 cells, you can get them even cheaper; the going rate for LiCoO2 and relatives is $350/kWh.
The $1,000/kWh is just more BS from Honda.
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contact 12:38PM (8/14/2009)
2 things...
1. Quit putting your stupid picture on every article you write. No one cares what you look like. You're not a celebrity. Show the vehicle or the event you're covering.
2. Why would you think anyone would care for your resume posted at the bottom of all your articles? I know you're trying to lend credibility to your articles but this is annoying and plainly, very egotistical.
I only got 1 thing out of this article: The estimated 100 mile range is probably generous for everywhere outside of L.A.
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srue 1:24PM (8/14/2009)
contact,
Lighten up. Gary is a guest columnist. Photos and bios are typical for guest contributors. You don't help by being rude.
Gary, thanks for the reporting. Lots of good info here. I am very interested in learning more about the Leaf. I hope it's a good car on top of being a good EV.
why not the LS2LS7? 2:16PM (8/14/2009)
Where did you get this info that the 100 mile range will be more than generous for everyone outside L.A.?
Brandon 12:38PM (8/14/2009)
Ugh. NO NO NO! Why can't they just sell me a car (not lease) and let me deal with charging it? :( Why on Earth would I need a garage?
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Boyprodigy1 1:11AM (8/15/2009)
well you have to admit that it would be easier with a garage...
Brandon 2:01AM (8/15/2009)
I fail to see how. Easier for some people maybe, but not all. Nobody I know even parks in their garage and there would be better outlet access in the driveway anyways.
nrb 12:41PM (8/14/2009)
Leases only. You need to qualify (other than financially). This smells like the current Mini-E beta test.
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paulwesterberg 1:02PM (8/14/2009)
Due to battery management which limits charge and discharge to extend battery life it seems that as the size of the battery pack increases the useful range is dramatically improved. So lets say you always need to waste approx 8kWh of the battery to extend lifespan and reduce cycles.
24 kWh = 16kWh usable(67%) = 100miles = 6.25 miles/kWh
16 kWh = 8kWh usable(50%) = 40miles = 5 miles/kWh
The leafs battery pack is 50% larger than the volt, but its range is improved 150%. Yes I realize that the volt is likely to be slightly heavier due to the range extender, but both cars should have pretty similar energy requirements when kWh/mile is measured.
This an engineering hurdle for series hybrids that tesla noted when the volt was unveiled, that the range for vehicles with small battery packs will be limited because they have a harder time spreading charge/discharge cycles in the battery pack.
If nissan increased the battery pack from 24kWh to 32kWh I estimate that the range would increase to 168 miles.
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lne937s 1:38PM (8/14/2009)
"I realize that the volt is likely to be slightly heavier"
I would guess a little more than "slightly". The LEAF uses more advanced batteries that at 380 lbs are actually a bit lighter than the Volt's, dispite significantly more output. The motor is also smaller and presumably lighter. Then you have the engine, gasoline tank, exhaust, generator, radiator, etc. for the Volt (hundreds of pounds). Then you get into the multiplier effect, where all supporting systems have to be heavier to support and compensate for the extra weight of the drivetrain: brakes, wheels, tires (more rolling resistance), suspension, chassis, etc. I would figure on the Volt being 500-700lbs heavier than the LEAF.
In terms of increasing the battery on the LEAF by 33% for extra range- in the cut-away of the prototype, there is a large empty space under the rear cargo floor that could potentially hold that much in batteries (about 127 lbs.). Maybe offer a longer-range option or rent/swap an extra battery for longer trips...
why not the LS2LS7? 2:21PM (8/14/2009)
It's not like the Leaf doesn't have a radiator. Look at the Tesla Roadster. The drivetrain produces heat and carrying that heat away with just air is rather difficult.
I expect both the Leaf and the Volt have radiators, the Volt just has a larger one (and not an extra one).
I would be shocked if the Volt is 700lbs heavier than the Leaf. 500lbs seems like the upper limit to me.
Ernie 6:05PM (8/14/2009)
Chopping off 8KWh to extend the life of the battery is *not* a reasonable assumption. You don't chop off KWhs, you chop off %. You would do the same thing to a single AA sized cell to improve its lifespan, and you sure as heck don't get a KWh out of a AA sized cell.
As such, the rule *should* be: don't charge it past 85-90%, and don't let it discharge past 10-15%. On a 16KWh battery, that means 20-30% of the battery is "unusable", not 50%.
paulwesterberg 6:34PM (8/14/2009)
@Ernie
I am not making assumptions about 8kWh being unused(or held in reserve) by the volt, 8kWh is the amount that Gary and GM officials have quoted. I am saying that in order to improve battery lifespan you try to balance charge/discharge cycles across the battery and limit max/min charge limits. This means that as the pack grows larger and you have more cells to spread the charge you have more useful kWh and a longer maximum range.
Useful energy storage is not a flat % like 50% or 65%, it depends on the size of the pack.
Chris M 10:19PM (8/14/2009)
For long battery life they usually use 50% to 65% of the total battery capacity.
The Volt apparently is using only 50%, and it sounds like the Leaf is using 60% to 65%
The Tesla Roadster typically uses 55% (from 85% to 30% SOC) though it can be temporarily increased up to 65% if extra range is needed (up to 95% to 30% SOC) though that does reduce the battery lifespan a bit.
brittanidone2007 1:10PM (8/14/2009)
It's the battery life that concerns me:
'Based on AESC’s testing, the cells will retain more than 80% capacity after 7 years, including 70,000 km (43,496 miles).'
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/aesc-lithium-io.html
If this is the technology being used, the battery life is really poor.
I wonder if the author has any more information on this topic?
It seems a shame to me that it doesn't use lithium iron, which has a much greater lifetime.
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jake 3:55PM (8/14/2009)
Uh, I mentioned this the last time this was brought up. When you have a battery of varying capacities you can't take the durability number (in miles) at face value.
For example, the pack you are talking about is 9.2kWh vs 24kWh in Nissan's. So the life is 70,000 km (43,496 miles) * 24kWh/9.2kWh = 182609km (113468 miles).
Why is this the case? Because a battery is rated by cycles. In the article, that battery was rated for 1000 cycles (this is full cycles we are talking about here, that means if you partially charge it then that doesn't count as a full cycle, you have to add up all the partial charges to count as a full cycle). It can travel 70km (43.5miles) on a full charge (100%-0% SOC) so 43.5miles*1000 = 43500miles.
However the Nissan's can travel about 100 miles so the total is 100miles*1000 = 100,000 miles. Please keep this rule in mind the next time you see battery life rated in miles.
On the article itself, it's good to hear the batteries are much lower than $500/kWh. This means the battery is even cheaper than I expected (they said it's even cheaper than $12k; I expected them to cost ~$15k). If this is true, Nissan has a good chance of making the first affordable EV. It's also nice to hear they plan to let buyers buy the battery.
David Martin 4:18PM (8/14/2009)
Jake, I missed your previous reply.
Where is this information from?:
'In the article, that battery was rated for 1000 cycles ....It can travel 70km (43.5miles) on a full charge (100%-0% SOC) so 43.5miles*1000 = 43500miles.'
It was not in the link I gave, and is not information that I have been able to dig out.
Don't get me wrong, I want the Leaf to succeed, but have not been able to find information indicating that the battery is likely to have a useful life.
David Martin 6:27PM (8/14/2009)
Jake,
I've tracked down your original post, which throws light on the matter:
'You forgot the cycle life vs miles comparison in batteries. The battery discussed in that article is only 9.2kwh and good for about 70km (if it is talking about the R1e but the article is unclear). 70,000km/70km means 1000 cycles. The same battery in the Leaf would be good for about 100miles * 1000 cycles = 100,000 miles.
http://www.easier.com/view/News/Motoring/Subaru/article-92677.html
Other articles say the R1e's battery is good for 10 years / 124,000+ miles, so I'm not sure which one is accurate.'
I agree that it is not very clear what the lifetime of the battery is.
100,000 miles sounds a lot more hopeful though, and at $10k for the battery you have a more reasonable 10cents/mile in battery depreciation, and around 17,000 miles/year for a 6 year lifetime, which is fine for many users in Europe and a bargain in London with a £5/day congestion charge paying for the battery.
At 45 miles/day then if the battery uses around 60% of it's total capacity to run 100miles to avoid the battery being totally drained, then that is 14.4kwh for 100miles, so roughly 7kwh or so for the 45 miles.
Off peak electricity in the UK costs perhaps £0.05 kwh or so, so total costs are around £0.35 for electric!
With the battery at about £6666, then you have a total of around £3.50 for battery and electric.
Petrol here is around £1/litre, so in traffic where this car would be mainly used you might need around £6 for 45 miles, so you save £2.50/day, and in London £7.50.
I suspect that they will use the cost differential to charge more in the UK for the car, but it sounds like a good deal depending on the purchase price.
The case is a lot tougher to make for the US with cheaper petrol and typically longer distances driven.
Incidentally, for those concerned that electric cars are impractical in cold weather, I have come across this video of the Th!nk, which is currently also undergoing cold weather trials by the US post office:
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/02/09/electricaid-pushes-th-nk-city-to-the-limit-in-video-review/
I don't think that I would fancy driving on that ice!
David Martin 1:12PM (8/14/2009)
It's the battery life that concerns me:
'Based on AESC’s testing, the cells will retain more than 80% capacity after 7 years, including 70,000 km (43,496 miles).'
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/aesc-lithium-io.html
If this is the technology being used, the battery life is really poor.
I wonder if the author has any more information on this topic?
It seems a shame to me that it doesn't use lithium iron, which has a much greater lifetime.
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Mart 1:36PM (8/14/2009)
Anyone who thinks leases are a good long term solution needs to talk to people who held EV-1, Th!nk City, EV+, etc. leases. If Nissan decides not to renew the battery lease, what have you got?
The idea that the car needs to be placed, like an adoption process, is a mistake. Anyone who has seen Mel Gibson's appearance in 'Who Killed the Electric Car" can understand. Those of us who have heard similar complaints about being unable to place enough electric cars from GM know that the problem doesn't exist if you let the market work. Put the car up for sale with information available, and early adopters who do their research will buy it without the hassale of a 30 page interogation from the marketing department.
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