Carlos Ghosn: EVs could account 10 percent of global sales in 2020
Renault-Nissan's CEO Carlos Ghosn is a firm believer in the future of electric cars. According to an interview for le Journal du Dimanche, Ghosn says he expects the world's EV market will rise to six million vehicles per year, which is 10 percent of global sales. Ghosn also explained that Renault-Nissan is the manufacturer that invests the most in green technologies and is currently investing €4 billion in EV development and research. This will lead the company, in his words, to become the world's leader in green technologies. Ghosn has said before that EVs using electricity from clean sources (and he includes nuclear here) produce no CO2, making electric drive the greenest possible technology for the automobile.[Source: Le Journal du Dimanche]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Geoff de Ruiter 7:14PM (9/14/2009)
They better be more than that, other wise we will be in not so great of shape.
I feel EV sales will be actually higher than that by then, say 25 or more perhaps even 50%.
Look at hybrid percentages that have come about in the last 10 years.
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80N541 7:33PM (9/14/2009)
It's not the same with EVs, everybody is not really ready to drive (have) an ev. Explain to Mr X that his car could go only for a hundred miles where his $¤#& prius can go nearly 5 times this distance. When I made my business plan, it was the question that come the most often: "Only 90 miles? I could I make long travel with your ev?"
So I think it'll take more time to educate the majority about Evs. But this announce come from a major, so be careful. Lot of them had make announcement like that in the past year (decade), some of them killed their baby (shame on you GM).
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Geoff de Ruiter 7:57PM (9/14/2009)
Hey,
Your right, the current EVs with 80 miles and current Li ion, no that will not get to 25-50%. But technology breakthroughs (even what we are seeing now in nano and capacitors and even REEVs that will all count) are of course included in my prediction. Technology is improving and developing at an ever accelerating speed. The type of change we saw in the past 10 years will not take another 10. The wheels are turning...
Ray 8:43PM (9/14/2009)
The good folks at CA's CARB had a lofty goal of 2% EV's in 1998 in CA , increasing to 10% by 2003. CARB traded in their babies future for a hydrogen baby, that baby grew fat via government funding and refuses to grow except wider and cry for more. Now the government took the silver spoon from the hydrogen babies mouth and made the spoon much smaller but the auto and oil companies still want to bring it candy and donuts.
Poor fat inefficiant hydro baby, Bush fed you well but Obama wants you to loose weight and stand on your own. Hydro baby eats to much and is inefficiant. EV baby eats less, is efficient and farts thunder and craps lightening, EV baby will grow up munching on ICE market share and eating hydro baby and it's funding.
polo 10:20PM (9/14/2009)
That 10% doesn't take into account coming breakthroughs:
Toyota Said to Achieve 10-Fold Lithium-ion Battery Breakthrough
By Lyle Dennis Lyle Dennis, Editor-in-Chief, August 18th, 2009
Toyota may be slow to actually adopt lithium-ion batteries into its cars, but it appears the company may be ahead of the pack when it come to basic scientific development.
A report out of the Nikkei in Japan states that Toyota achieved the ability to fabricate single crystals of cobalt-oxide for use in lithium ion cells.
A lithium-ion battery stores energy by moving charged lithium ions through a matrix consisting of a carbon graphite anode and various different molecular cathodes. In Toyota's case cobalt oxide is the cathode, but in present technology exists as a large crystalline molecular structure.
In the breakthrough, by creating single crystals, much less graphite is needed thereby making room for more energy storing lithium.
Over the next 10 years Toyota engineers hope to completely eliminate the carbon altogether therefore effectively creating a battery that can hold 10 times the energy in the same mass.
Thus if a battery using today's technology could hold about 60 miles of EV range in a 400 pound pack, when this technique comes of age, 600 miles of range could be stored in the same size battery.
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1034384_toyota-said-to-achieve-10-fold-lithium-ion-battery-breakthrough
This isn't the firs time an announcement like this has been reported. The hydrogen bubble will burst around 2015-2016 (automakers that invested in hydrogen over EV tech will take a major stock hit) and we'll see a re-alignment in the auto industry with the early EV adopters becoming major players.
Dave 8:45PM (9/14/2009)
Unless there is a breakthrough on par with EEStor's claims, 10% is about right.
And the number will likely be much lower in the USA than in the rest of the world.
Fuel is expensive in France and France gets 80% of its electricity from nukes - if EVs work anywhere, they will work there.
For US consumers to willingly adopt EVs they will need at least a 250 mile range even running the defroster full blast in freezing rain and driving like you stole it. And, at the end of that 250 mile range, the battery must be quickly swappable like the Better Place system.
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polo 10:25PM (9/14/2009)
When charging is as simple as parking, people will laugh at the idea of going to a gas station. When the market reaches a certain point of saturation charging areas will be common enough that most will habitually charge while parked at work, or the mall, or home, and fast charging stations will become a common gimmick by highway and roadside restaurant stops. 150miles range will be more than enough, and standard packs will definitely be more than that by 2020.
Dave 11:13AM (9/15/2009)
"When charging is as simple as parking, people will laugh at the idea of going to a gas station. When the market reaches a certain point of saturation charging areas will be common enough that most will habitually charge while parked at work, or the mall, or home, and fast charging stations will become a common gimmick by highway and roadside restaurant stops. 150miles range will be more than enough, and standard packs will definitely be more than that by 2020."
Quick charging damages batteries. (By quick, I mean 200+ miles of range in less than 5 minutes, otherwise, whats the point of it?)
Quick charging puts stress on the grid that overnight charging does not.
If Toyota (or whoever) can truly reduce size, weight, and cost by 90% as youve posted, then overnight charging for routine use and battery swaps (the replacement battery having been recharged overnight) for long distance will be the answer.
Without such an advance in battery technology, range extenders are the only way that EVs can become commonplace.
Nick From Montreal 11:11PM (9/14/2009)
This guy has balls. I hope he wins that battle.
On another note, most of the comments in the original French article are very critical to Renault's reputation for poor quality. I looks like the French have a very low opinion of Renault's abilities. One commenter said that he prefer US cars (Jeep) while another claims to prefer German cars.
The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence I guess...
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Posterboy 1:02AM (9/15/2009)
If 10% are driving EVs, what are the other 90% driving? This is exactly why we need to mandate alcohol-fuel capable vehicles now. Even if every reader of this blog buys an EV, the other 90% will be driving on gas or diesel. In 10 years, cellulosic Ethanol might be readily available, made from all sorts of waste products, but we need to make sure the cars being sold NOW have the abillity to burn alcohol-fuels in the future. Its so incredibly basic and low-cost that its pathetic we don't mandate this today. It doesn't even matter which alcohol fuel turns out to be the most practical, Methanol or Butanol or whatever ends up working the best, but we NEED to make sure that cars being built now have the ability to burn it. You could lobby your member of congress if you wanted to waste your time, but lets be real, they won't listen to you anyway so whats the point? Fuel Freedom Act or whatever the heck they decided to call it this year isn't exciting like healthcare and calling the prez a "liar" (Quick, name ONE politician who isn't a liar, and be honest). I'm all for biodiesel standards as well, but I'm not so sure the tech solutions for problems in modern cars associated with use of biodiesel above 5% are as easy to solve. Regardless, we need the ability to burn alcohol fuels in ALL gasoline cars in the transition period before EVs take over and the numbers switch to where 90% are driving EVs.
Take you pick of interesting links...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znoliPCqWYQ
Trailer for Turning Oil Into Salt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou5uVEFAn34
Dr Robert Zubain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MVwL2PcCG8&feature=related
Anne Korin- A Conservative take on Reducing Oil Use (part of a long but cool series, and you have to love those eyebrows!) =) (C'Mon Tim, even you would love this gal)
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jim 9:20AM (9/15/2009)
10% sounds about right. As the fleet size increases the demand for public charging stations will increase and be fulfilled by the market, encouraging a few more to buy EVs. You also need to consider that the average new car is kept about 10 years and that is not likely to change and might increase if the a car purchased today is significantly more efficient than the one it replaced.
There is also the question as to how long government can subsidize the purchase price through tax credits given the predicted deficit? Particularly since the subsidy is more valuable depending on how much tax you pay.
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Sebastien Hubert 9:27AM (9/15/2009)
Is it just me or does this guy look naturally evil ? Like he's plotting something on that picture...a human version of that mouse in that show which I don't remember...
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wardialer 11:42AM (9/15/2009)
Animaniacs.... they're pinky... pinky and the brain brain brain brain brain.
nice one ;)
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